PNW Boys U11-U18 updated biweekly through end of season

The WA, OR, ID boys are updated approximately biweekly through the end of the U11-U14 season.

2013-2014 Club strength across A, B and C teams (boys)

Same as previous analysis for team strength across ages across clubs but now showing the A, B, and C teams in a club.  Only 16 clubs that had enough B teams across multiple ages to have an interesting plot.  B team also needed to be strong enough to appear on my plot (not fall off the bottom of the y-axis).

8 data points.  B02 (U11) on the far left and B95 (U18) on the far right.   Red line is the median of the A teams from WPFC, Crossfire, Seattle United and Eastside.  Green line is the median across all select teams (not clubs) in WA.

2013-2014 Boys team strength across WA clubs

Following up on last years longer analysis of the strength of Washington clubs for boys,

here is an analysis of the strength of every select club's top boys team at U11-U18 in Washington.

Plot 1 shows and overview with Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC in red and every other club in black.  The green line is the median of all the black lines.

Plot 2 breaks this out by individual club.  This gives an overview of the types of teams difference clubs produce, what strength their A teams tends to be at, and whether the club fields teams at every age.

The red line is the median strength of the top teams at age in Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC. The are the four largest and strongest clubs in Washington and consistently produce a top 4 team across most every age. The dotted-red line is a strength -2 below the top team (or -200 on new scaling). The predicted goal ratio in a match-up between a team on the red line and one on the dotted red line is 4, so 4-1 or 8-2. So the red line team is heavily expected to win, but it would still be a somewhat competitive game. The green line is the median across all the top teams from every select club in Washington, except those top 4.

B02 at far left, B95 at far right. 

1pt difference is about the length of this hyphen - on this graph. Yes, small. Being 1 full pt stronger = scoring 2x as rapidly so is a significant advantage. So being on the green line versus slightly above it indicates a big difference in strength. The red line teams score about 80-100x more rapidly than the green line teams...

RCL D1 regional distribution

Here I look at the regional distribution of boys teams in the RCL D1 for fall 2013.  The RCL D1 is the strongest level of play in WA for all age groups except B97.  RCL is a closed league (closed to the clubs shown in the graphs).  However, except for B97, most WA teams at this level are playing in this league (the largest soccer clubs in WA are in the RCL so this is not surprising).

BU11-14
RCL is a state-wide league, but the top division in BU11-14 (32 teams) has about the lowest travel of any league/division.  Almost all teams (29 of 32) come from the SE Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area: Redmond, Seattle, Preston, Woodinville, Tukwila, and Tacoma.  The longest distance, Woodinville-Tacoma is 50miles (ca 1 hr) and most games would involve under 30min of travel.  In the fall 2013 season, there were no teams from E WA, W side of Puget Sound or the Portland Metro area in RCL D1.  There was 1 team from N WA (Bellingham) and 2 from the N Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area (Everett area).

 

BU15-18

At the HS age, BU15-18 (again 32 teams) the regional distribution of teams is more diverse and more "state-wide".  In fall 2013, most teams (21 of 32) still came from the SE Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area. But N WA (Bellingham) had a team at 3 of the 4 age groups, and N Seattle Metro area (Everett) at least 1 team at each age group although these teams were not in the same club. There are 3 N Seattle Metro area RCL clubs: NWN, Rush and Snohomish. At U15, Rush had a team in D1, at U16 Snohomish, at U17 both Snohomish and Rush, and at U18 NWN.  This suggests that the N Seattle Metro area only has sufficient players to support 1 D1 team at the HS age.  This might explain why there are no D1 N Seattle Metro teams at BU11-14 as significant cross-club player-migration is needed to form a D1 team and this doesn't happen until HS age.

The Bellingham Metro area, despite being only the 5th largest metro area in the state, is well-represented in the HS RCL D1 with teams at 3 of the 4 ages.  The 4th largest metro area in WA is the Tri-Cities and is again is about 2x the size of the Bellingham metro area, but had only 2 teams in D1.  The N Portland Metro area (WA side) is the 3rd largest metro area and also about 2x as big as Bellingham, but is even less represented in RCL D1 at the HS age (1 team).  The second largest metro area in WA, the Spokane metro area, has no teams in the RCL D1.

What is driving these patterns?  The most obvious is population size.  If we look at county size versus # of HS boys teams in the RCL D1, we see see a strong relationship. 

• King Co: Crossfire, SU, Eastside, PacNW, FCA
• Snohomish: Snohomish United, NWN, WA Rush
• Pierce: WPFC, FWFC, Harbor, Slammers
• Spokane: SSC
• Clark+Skamania: WA Timbers
• Tri-Cities (Benton+Franklin)+Yakima: Three Rivers and Three Rivers Yakima
• Whatcom+Skagit: Whatcom Rangers
• Kitsap+Mason: Westound
• #s from here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_statistical_areas

A couple things jump out:

• Whatcom Rangers appears to over-produce RCL D1 teams relative to what you would expect given the population size of Whatcom+Skagit counties.  Both the Whatcom region has PSPL "competitors" but not at the RCL D1 level.
• Spokane metro area has 2-3 fewer RCL D1 teams than expected.  However Spokane does have 3 HS teams at RCL D1 strengths, but they do not play in the RCL D1 (2 in PSPL D1 and 1 in RCL D2).

When we plot the same relationship for the younger ages U11-14 (red line and dots), there seems a very different pattern:

 First, it looks like the size of the player pool has a much bigger effect at the younger ages.  There seems to be a minimum population size of about 500,000 before a region is able to produce a team strong enough to compete in the RCL D1.

HOWEVER, there RCL is promotion-relegation and it may be that there is a initial selection bias at U11 towards the King County clubs and that this takes a few seasons to work its way out.  Next up, I want to repeat this but with my team strength estimates which won't have this initial selection bias.

WA B98 Founders Cup Bracket predictions

B98 Founders Cup

Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing predictions

Founders Cup Bracket A
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Washington Timbers Crimson B98   0   2  23  75
Crossfire Select Lewis B98       0  12  64  24
Tacoma United Chelsea Jrs B98    4  82  13   1
Seattle United S Black B98      96   4   0   0


Founders Cup Bracket B
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Highline Select B98         1   2   6  20  70
Lake Hills Flash B98        7  14  23  38  18
Seattle United S Blue B98  27  28  25  15   4
TUSK Lightning B98         26  28  26  16   5
Kent United White B98      39  28  20  10   2


Founders Cup Bracket C
                                1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Mercer Island FC Whitecaps B98   41  35  18   6   0
Washington Timbers Burgundy B98  11  23  41  24   1
Seattle United NE Blue B98        3   9  25  59   5
TC United B98                    45  34  16   5   0
Newport FC Raiders B98            0   0   0   6  94


Founders Cup Bracket D
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Impact FC Black B98                85  13   2   0   0
Seattle United Shoreline Blue B98   1  16  35  34  15
Mukilteo Rush Lions B98             1  15  33  34  17
Seattle United W Blue B98           0   2   9  23  66
Crossfire Select Mele B98          13  54  22   9   2

WA B98 Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket predictions

B98 WA Challenge Cup Div 2

Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing predictions

WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket A
                     1st 2nd 3rd
FWFC White B98         2  26  72
PacNW White B98       10  63  27
Eastside FC Blue B98  88  10   1


WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket B
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Snohomish United Red B98        2  11  33  53
WA Rush Nero B98               33  45  17   6
Pacific FC White-Cheetahs B98  60  29   8   2
WPFC Navy B98                   4  15  42  39


WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket C
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th
FC Alliance B B98            0  11  39  50
Harbor Premier Green B98     5  70  18   6
Crossfire Select Manao B98  94   6   0   0
Whatcom Rangers Blue B98     0  13  42  44

B98 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket prediciton

B98 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 (based on data up to Jan 10 before 1st matches)

Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing prediction

WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket A
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastside FC White B98      21  48  25   6
PacNW Blue B98              7  26  49  19
Tacoma United Chelsea B98  72  22   6   1
FWFC Blue B98               1   5  20  74


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket B
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
FC Alliance A B98          72  24   4   1
SSC Shadow A B98            1   8  39  52
Blackhills FC Black B98    25  56  15   4
Highline Premier Blue B98   2  12  42  44


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket C
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Washington Timbers Green B98   4  12  27  30  26
NWN Red B98                    2   6  17  29  46
Crossfire Premier C B98        5  14  28  29  24
WPFC White B98                58  28  10   4   1
Seattle United Samba B98      32  40  18   8   3

2013 Strength Ratings posted to Blog

Updated DRAFT 2013 boys ratings
9-21-2013

The tabs on the blog now point to the 2013 ranks. Soon I will add links to the archived 2012 ranks. I don't have the league table done yet nor column re what fall league the team is in.

I've entered the first 1-2 league games.  Leagues included are RCL, PSPL, OPL, NPSL, DIII, DVI, and PML.
Email corrections and additions to lastplanetranking@gmail.com.

Some things to keep in mind for the 2013 ratings:
* I have changed the scaling for teams.  All teams are scaled against the median U13 team.  The median U13 team is set to a strength of 800.  This makes the ratings look a little more like chess ratings.  2000 is a very strong HS team and the top teams won't hit this till U17-18.

* Check out the FAQ on the blog to understand the meaning of the strength rating.  This is a predictive model and the DIFFERENCE in strength ratings between 2 teams gives you a prediction of the RATIO of the goals scored.  If rescaled the ratings, so now a difference of 100 is a prediction that the ratio of goals scored will be 2 (so a 2:1 or 4:2 or 8:4 score, which of those depends on the strength-attack characteristics of the teams).  A difference of 200 is a prediction that the ratio of goals scored will be 4 (so 4:1 or 8:2 etc score).

* The ratings are based on 13 months of matches but the ratings are weighted (heavily) towards the more recent 2-3 months of games. On the pdf, you can see how a team changed after try-outs (or after key players added or dropped).

* The "All-xx" tables you see have teams that are from 2012-2013 and don't exist anymore, but the state tables only have teams that played a game in the last 3 months.

* Only teams with 7+ games are listed on the main tables.  You can see all teams on the All_Bxx_ranks.html file.  Don't make much of the rating of a team with only 3-5 games.

* I have the B02s listed to help me figure out 02 teams that played up in a tourney but didn't list their age.  I won't be rating the B02s past this stage.  I start with U12s when games are 11v11.

* I have B94s listed, but I won't include those either in the final.

* Oregon ratings will be sketchy until the fall league starts.  There were many name changes and reorganization of teams, so more data is needed to get these sorted out.

--LP

B98 WA Cup Qtr, Semi, and Finals predictions

B98 WA Cup SILVER quarter finals 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
05/03/2013 Kajumulo FC Tembo B98 vs Seattle Celtic FC A B98, HW 25%, AW 56%, T 19%, pred score 1.7-2.5
05/03/2013 WPFC Fury Navy B98 vs MVP Rapids Navy B98, HW 16%, AW 70%, T 14%, pred score 1.8-3.5 

B98 WA Cup GOLD quarter finals 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------

05/04/2013 ISC Gunners A B98 vs Wenatchee Fire Black B98, HW 42%, AW 41%, T 16%, pred score 3.2-3.1
05/04/2013 MRFC Blue B98 vs XiFA 2017 B98, HW 27%, AW 38%, T 35%, pred score 0.7-0.9
05/04/2013 Washington East SC Seely B98 vs NW United Struk B98, HW 67%, AW 14%, T 18%, pred score 2.3-1
05/04/2013 WPFC Fury Black B98 vs Tacoma United Chelsea B98, HW 7%, AW 78%, T 14%, pred score 0.6-2.5

B98 OPL State Cup predictions

B98 OPL Cup semis 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/28/2013 FC Portland Navy B98 vs HSC Freeze B98, HW 72%, AW 11%, T 17%, pred score 2.4-0.8
04/28/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B98 vs CFC Real Madrid B98, HW 46%, AW 29%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-1.1 

B98 OPL Cup quarter finals
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 CFC Real Madrid B98 vs Thelo Cobras B98, HW 81%, AW 7%, T 12%, pred score 3-0.8
04/27/2013 FC Portland Navy B98 vs Lake Oswego SC Edge B98, HW 89%, AW 4%, T 8%, pred score 3.7-0.8
04/27/2013 NEU Gamban B98 vs HSC Freeze B98, HW 39%, AW 35%, T 26%, pred score 1.4-1.3
04/27/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B98 vs Eastside Timbers Red B98, HW 46%, AW 25%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-0.8

WA Cup Puget Sound Prelim Predictions (U12, U13, U14)

If the E WA and W WA prelim rounds equal numbers of teams, then the top 4 teams from the preliminary rounds go to the Gold semi-final round and the next 4 go to the Silver semi-final round.  However because the E WA and W WA numbers are not even, it won't be quite like that.  Nonetheless, PSPL hasn't posted the #s yet.   But nonetheless, assuming 4 teams go on to Gold, I marked my predictions for which teams those will be.  In some cases, a few teams were tied so I marked those lighter yellow.  I marked 'dark horses' green.  Most of the rest of the teams will make it on to the Silver round, but we won't know how many won't make it past the first weekend until PSPL posts the #s.

Predicted top 4 marked Gold (Yellow) and dark horses marked green for top 4.
PSPL schedule webpage

WA Cup GS U12  (individual game predictions)
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Cascade FC Green B00          13  22  32  23  10   1   0   0   0    0
ISC Gunners A B00             48  30  15   6   0   0   0   0   0    0
Normandy Park FC White B00    35  33  19  10   4   0   0   0   0    0
Tynecastle FC Outliers B00     4  13  29  42   7   3   0   0   0    0
Nortac Cosmos B00              0   0   1   6  18  62  10   2   0    0
RSA Elite Diamondbacks B00     0   1   4  13  60  21   1   0   0    0
FC Salmon Creek Juventus B00   0   0   0   0   0   1  17  29  33   21
Fuerza FC Academy B00          0   0   0   0   0   0   5  15  25   55
MRFC Blue B00                  0   0   0   0   0   8  42  24  16    9
MVP Rapids Navy B00            0   0   0   0   0   4  26  29  26   15


WA Cup GS U13
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Cobra Aguilitas B99           69  19   8   3   1   0   0   0   0    0
NW United Powell B99           5  18  28  25  12   6   3   1   1    0
San Carlos Bombers B99        19  42  23  11   3   1   0   0   0    0
Tacoma United Manchester B99   5  17  26  26  11   7   4   2   1    0
Kent United Green B99          1   2   7  15  30  23  11   7   4    2
RSA Elite B99                  0   2   5  11  22  25  16  10   6    2
Emerald City FC Green B99      0   0   1   3   6  11  18  23  22   18
MVP Rapids Navy B99            0   0   0   2   4   8  16  20  26   25
Pumas UNAM Seattle B99         0   0   0   1   2   4  10  16  26   42
WPFC Fury Black B99            0   1   2   4   9  14  23  21  15   11

B98 WA Cup GS

WA Cup GS U14
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
NW United Struk B98        10  62  18   7   2   1   0   0   0    0    0    0    0
Seattle Celtic FC A B98     0   0   0   1   1   6  46  20  10   10    3    1    0
Tacoma United Chelsea B98  87  11   1   0   0   0   0   0   0    0    0    0    0
Emerald City FC Green B98   1   6  19  20  23  21   5   3   1    0    0    0    0
ISC Gunners A B98           1   8  23  22  23  17   3   2   1    0    0    0    0
Kajumulo FC Tembo B98       0   0   0   1   2   6  14  24  26   13    8    4    1
MRFC Blue B98               1   7  19  24  21  19   5   3   1    0    0    0    0
MVP Rapids Navy B98         0   0   0   1   3   8  17  29  28    6    3    2    1
WPFC Fury Black B98         1   6  18  23  24  20   4   2   1    0    0    0    0
MRFC White B98              0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   4   11   16   26   41
Pumas UNAM B98              0   0   0   0   0   0   2   4   7   21   26   23   17
RSA Elite B98               0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   6   12   19   29   32
WPFC Fury Navy B98          0   0   0   0   0   1   3   8  14   25   24   15    8

B99 WA Cup Bronze

WA Cup Bronze U13
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
Cascade FC B99              0   4  20  31  25  19
FC Crush Classic B99        0   1   5  12  25  57
MRFC Blue B99              33  47  13   5   1   0
MVP Rapids White B99        2  12  34  26  18   9
Tacoma United Chelsea B99   0   5  23  25  31  15
Legacy FC Maroon B99       64  31   4   1   0   0

Team strength by age and club in WA

4-4-2013.  Updated to include B96 (U16)
This post is for 2012-2013. Click here to see the 2013-2014 Boys analysis and here to see the 2013-2014 Girls analysis

I was interested in the pattern of team strength across BU12 to BU16 across all clubs in Washington.  Which clubs are able to consistently field the strongest teams across multiple ages?  Are some clubs able to do this consistently across ages or did most clubs have stronger and weaker age groups?  Are RCL clubs able to field stronger A teams on average?

To look at these questions, I took all the WA clubs that have a team at least 4 ages from BU12 to BU16 and computed the maximum "B00 strength" at that age for the club.  "B00 strength" means that each age was scaled to the median strength of WA-OR B00 teams.  That put all ages on the same scale.  "maximum strength at that age for club" means that I took the maximum strength of all teams a club had at a particular age.  For example Crossfire Premier has 4 B00 teams, and I took the maximum of those teams' strengths.  For Crossfire Premier, this is simply the A team strength, but other clubs do not name their A, B, C teams consistently so I just took the maximum the teams a club has at a particular age.

There are 37 clubs in WA that have a select team at each age BU12 to BU16.  This is out of 109 WA clubs in my database. This plot shows all the B00 strengths for these 37 clubs.  Each line is a different club.  There are three clubs that stand out in being able to field an exceptionally strong team at each age BU12 to BU15 and form the outer edge of the strength by age plot: Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Seattle United.  Eastside FC is a close 4th, with a couple slightly weaker age years (U13 and U14).  At U16, Crossfire, WPFC and Eastside form the outer edge of the plot, but SU has an unusually weak A team.  No other clubs had more than two teams between BU12-15 that were within 2 points of the red top lines below.  The green line in the graph is the median strength at age across all clubs.

Comment #1: I would assume this result is driven by the size of the player pool.  Crossfire Premier fields 4-5 teams at each age.  Seattle United has 2-3 full-year teams and 6-8 part-year (aka select) teams at each age.  WPFC fields 2 full-year teams and is associated with a very strong part-year (aka select) club, WPFC Fury.  However I'm not sure how seamless the player movement is between WPFC and WPFC Fury.  Clearly though, WPFC is not hindered by a limited player pool.  Eastside FC fields fewer teams at each age (generally 1-2 less than Crossfire) and is not integrated with a select club.  This slightly smaller player pool may account for the greater fluctuation in strength across ages for Eastside FC.

Comment  #2: I'm slowly collecting match data on the top west-coast teams in order to pencil in where the top of this curve is for the west-coast boys.  My sense right now is that the top CA teams are 2 strength points above the top WA teams.  Maybe 1.5 but data points to a higher difference.

Next I looked at each club individually to see if there were any patterns between, say, RCL and non-RCL teams in terms of strength of teams across ages.  For this I looked at the strength of the top team in RCL versus non-RCL clubs.  I plotted Crossfire Premier, WPFC, Seattle United and Eastside FC separately since they were outliers even among the RCL clubs.  The boxplot below shows the results with the box enclosing the middle 50% of clubs at each age and the whiskers showing the full range of strengths.  I also added the strengths of the best teams from smaller clubs that do not have a team at each age.  What we see is that the best RCL teams are usually better than the best non-RCL teams, but that there is quite a lot of overlap---the whiskers on the boxplots of the non-RCL clubs overlap the boxes for the RCL clubs.  The green line is the median across all clubs (none excluded so same green line as in plot above).

Which clubs have a top team with a strength above the median "best-team" line (green line) at each age BU12 to BU15?

[1] "3 Rivers SC"           "Crossfire Premier SC"  "Eastside FC"          
[4] "NW Nationals"          "Pacific Northwest SC"  "Seattle United"       
[7] "Snohomish United SC"    "Spokane SC Shadow"     "Washington Premier FC"

Ah, those are all big clubs. Ok, let's set the bar a bit lower. Which clubs field a team with a strength above -1 plus the median "best-team" line (green line) at each age? So their strongest team has to be no more that 1 point below the median "best-team" so could have a competitive game with that median team. I'll divide this into RCL and non-RCL. I define "RCL" as having a team that plays in the spring RCL, so clubs that played in the fall RCL via the Open Cup are non-RCL in my grouping.

RCL (13 out of 21 RCL clubs do)

[1] "3 Rivers SC"           "Crossfire Premier SC"  "Eastside FC"          
 [4] "Federal Way FC"        "Highline Premier FC"   "NW Nationals"         
 [7] "Pacific Northwest SC"  "Seattle United"        "Snohomish United"   
[10] "Spokane SC Shadow"     "Washington Rush SC"    "Whatcom FC Rangers"   
[13] "Washington Premier FC"

Non-RCL (5 out of 27 non-RCL bigger clubs do)

[1] "Cobra Premier Soccer" "FC Spokane"  "Franklin Pierce SC (WPFC Fury)"  
[4] "Issaquah SC"          "Kent United"

Next question was what clubs can field teams that can compete with the top RCL teams?  Here "compete with" was defined as "having a strength within 2 points of the median of the 4 top clubs".  The 4 top clubs are Crossfire Premier, Eastside FC, Seattle United, and WPFC.  Although Eastside FC has some "weaker" ages, those "weaker" ages are still within 2 points of the other top clubs.  In the boxplot above, this median "exceptionally strong" team was the median of the red boxes.

Which clubs can field two teams within 2 points of the "exceptionally strong" teams? Three clubs other than the top 4 can field two teams within 2 strength points of the top:  "Issaquah SC", "FC Alliance" and "PacNW".  No clubs except the top 4 clubs can field 3 teams within 2 strength points of the top. 

Which clubs can field at least ONE team within 2 strength points of the top? For this I included the smaller non-RCL clubs.

Non-RCL clubs with team within 2 strength points of the top.  Number of ages fielded noted.

"Central WA Soccer Academy (1 age)" "Cobra Premier Soccer (4 ages)" "Emerald City FC (3 ages)" "FC Spokane (4 ages)"  "Franklin Pierce SC (WPFC Fury) (4 ages)" "Issaquah SC (4 ages)" "Pacific FC (4 ages)"

RCL clubs with team within 2 strength points of the top

"3 Rivers SC" "FC Alliance"  "Highline Premier FC" "NW Nationals"          "PacNW" "Snohomish United"  "WA Rush SC"  "Whatcom FC Rangers" 

This result is especially interesting to me. 15 clubs (besides the top 4) can field 1-2 teams within 2 strengths points of the top. 8 are RCL and 7 are non-RCL, and of those 7 non-RCL clubs, 2 are small clubs that do not field a team at each age.

Finally, here are all the individual plots for clubs with a team at least 4 age between BU12-16.  The black line is the max strength of the club's teams at a particular age.  The red line is the median strength for Crossfire Premier, WPFC and Seattle United.  The dotted red line is -2 below that, so a team above that dotted red line could play a game with the red line and not be totally gutted by more than a GD of 4.  Franklin Pierce SC = WPFC Fury.

B00 at far left, B96 at far right.

1pt difference is about the length of this hyphen - on this graph. Yes, small.

Being 1 full pt stronger = scoring 2x as rapidly so is a significant advantage.  So being on the green line versus slightly above it indicates a big difference in strength.  The red line teams score about 80-100x more rapidly than the green line teams....

Finally here is a table with B00 team strengths.  The median strong 4 clubs is for reference:

med.strong
   B00    B99    B98    B97 
 6.155  8.410 11.290 12.545

                                                       club   B00   B99   B98   B97
1                                               3 Rivers SC  2.10  5.33  7.02 10.83
2                              Academy of Soccer Excellence -2.27  5.58    NA    NA
3                                          Avanti United FC -2.52    NA    NA  0.52
4                                      Bainbridge Island FC  2.36  3.51  5.38  8.02
5                                             Blackhills FC -0.37  4.82  9.01 10.27
7                                               Breakers SC  0.08  4.35  6.09  8.16
8                                                Cascade FC  2.95  0.73  4.80  8.20
9                                  Columbia Basin United FC -0.47  5.44    NA  4.99
10                                  Columbia Basin Youth SA -3.73  2.11    NA    NA
11                                Central WA Soccer Academy  4.57    NA    NA    NA
12                                          Cheney Storm FC -1.10  0.27  4.96    NA
13                                        Chehalis Youth SC    NA    NA    NA  5.54
14                                        Central Kitsap SC    NA  1.02    NA  4.10
15                                     Cobra Premier Soccer  3.26  7.54  6.00  9.98
16                                     Crossfire Premier SC  6.67  8.73 10.65 12.44
17                                      Crossfire Select SC  1.92  3.87  7.31  7.59
18                                         Cowlitz Youth SA    NA    NA    NA  5.83
19                                                 Desna SC -0.73    NA    NA  3.58
20                            Des Moines Midway Soccer Club    NA -1.99    NA    NA
21                                              Eastside FC  5.84  7.14 11.39 11.31
22                                          Emerald City FC    NA  4.53  6.51 11.29
24                                              FC Alliance  5.93  6.59  7.16  6.24
25                                                 FC Crush    NA  0.08    NA    NA
26                                               FC Edmonds  1.40  5.76  5.54  9.23
27                                                  FC Kent -4.80    NA    NA    NA
28                                 Futbol Club Salmon Creek -0.85  3.58    NA  7.45
29                                               FC Spokane  0.68  5.04  6.77 10.62
30                                  Fife Milton Edgewood SC  0.43  4.20  3.80  4.33
31                                       Franklin Pierce SC  2.09  4.22  6.90 10.81
32                                              Fircrest SC    NA    NA    NA  3.08
33                                           Federal Way FC  0.82  5.13  7.14  8.61
34                                                Harbor FC -0.36  3.98  7.09  9.09
35                                             Highlands SC    NA    NA  4.07    NA
36                                      Highline Premier FC  3.25  6.48  6.76  9.27
37                                               Cascade SC -0.64  5.74  6.20  6.61
38                                              Issaquah SC  5.35  6.85  6.53  9.21
39                                              Islander FC -1.86 -1.06    NA    NA
40                                              Kajumulo FC    NA    NA  4.70  8.03
41                                              Kent United  2.22  5.22  8.72  8.20
42                                                Kitsap SC    NA  5.75    NA 10.47
43                                Kittitas Valley Junior SA  0.29  1.94  3.69    NA
44                                            Lake Hills SC -0.90  5.33  3.97  8.68
45                                                Legacy FC    NA  3.97    NA  7.63
46                                  Lewis County Volcano SC    NA    NA  1.35    NA
48                   Lower Yakima Valley Soccer Association    NA  5.45    NA  9.21
49                                         Mercer Island FC -0.45  3.12  4.81  8.30
50                                                Monroe FC    NA  4.25  4.86    NA
51                                         Mount Rainier FC  0.32  3.65  7.16    NA
52                                          Maple Valley SA -0.31  3.57  5.16  7.52
53                          North County Youth Soccer Assoc    NA    NA  6.44    NA
54                                         Newport Youth SC -0.93  2.46  3.72  6.35
55                                          North Kitsap SC  0.06  2.59  4.74    NA
56                                         Normandy Park FC  3.41    NA    NA    NA
57                                              Norpoint SC    NA    NA    NA  4.64
58                                          North Tacoma SC  2.80  1.15  3.58  9.45
59                                            Northshore SC  0.04  3.87  4.93  7.60
60                                             NW United FC  0.58  5.87  6.94  7.38
61                                             NW Nationals  1.81  6.49  7.51  9.12
62                                         North Whidbey SC    NA    NA  5.05    NA
63                         Vancouver United Soccer Alliance  3.53  4.27  8.11  7.83
64                                                Orting FC    NA -0.50    NA  4.58
65                                               Pacific FC  0.56  6.71  5.94  9.24
66                                     Pacific Northwest SC  3.03  7.50 10.89  9.64
67                                              Puyallup SC -1.19    NA  3.26  5.67
68                                               Pullman SC -0.47  2.85  5.47    NA
69                                            South Hill SC  1.70  4.72  3.42  7.19
70                                        Spokane Sabers FC -0.52 -0.14  4.88  6.37
71                               Soccer Club of Renton East -0.30    NA    NA    NA
72                                           Seattle Celtic  0.57  0.69  4.74    NA
73                                           Seattle United  5.95  8.09 11.19 12.65
74                            Spanaway Graham Eatonville SC -2.68  2.14    NA    NA
75                                                Silver FC -5.26    NA    NA    NA
76                                           Silver Lake SC    NA  2.03    NA  5.10
77                                          South Kitsap SC -0.84    NA    NA    NA
78                                  Rainier Valley Slammers -0.39  3.77    NA  5.97
79                                       Snohomish Youth SC  3.15  5.76  7.13 11.75
80                                     Sparta NorTac Select -1.52  3.12  5.21  6.70
81                                         Spokane Pumas FC -3.09  1.56    NA    NA
82                                         Spokane Scotties -1.52    NA  3.90    NA
83                                        Spokane SC Shadow  3.87  5.40  6.86 10.00
84                                        Spokane Shadow SC -6.43    NA    NA    NA
85                                            Storm King SC -0.69  3.54    NA  7.85
86                                                Sumner SC    NA -0.61    NA    NA
87                                        Sun City Strikers -1.10  5.99    NA  5.71
88                                 Spokane Valley United SC -2.02    NA  2.03    NA
89                                         Tacoma United FC -1.12  5.21  9.24  8.36
90                                        Terrance Brier SC    NA    NA  7.25    NA
91                                   Thurston County United -3.16    NA  3.78  5.26
92           Cowlitz Youth Soccer Association Timber Barons -1.52  3.70  3.63  9.97
93                                              Tracyton SC    NA  3.43  0.58    NA
94                               Tukwila Skyway Soccer Club    NA    NA  7.18    NA
95                                        Tukwila Skyway SC -0.27    NA    NA    NA
96                                            Tynecastle FC  4.14  4.32  4.97  8.86
97                             University Place Soccer Club -0.98  2.55  5.93    NA
98                                         Vashon Island SC    NA -0.30    NA  5.15
99                                       Washington Rush SC  3.70  4.01 11.31  9.54
100                                      Washington East SC    NA  4.17  8.19  9.87
101                                       Wenatchee Fire FC  0.04  6.41  6.76    NA
103                                            Westsound FC  0.79  3.92  8.04    NA
104                                        West Highline SC -2.07    NA  0.99  4.50
105                                      Whatcom FC Rangers  1.55  5.70  7.20 10.94
106                                   Washington Premier FC  6.36  9.10 11.43 12.89
107                                         West Seattle SC -0.37  3.34  4.51  9.04
108 Camas Washougal Soccer Club (Washington Soccer Academy)  0.60  0.65  8.71  8.89
109                                            XiFA Academy -0.19  3.92  7.38 10.45
 

WA B98 Challenge Cup Predictions

B98 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 (WSYSA schedule and results)

Quarter finals predictions

B98 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 qtr 
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 3 Rivers Black B98 vs PacNW Blue B98, HW 27%, AW 48%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6
04/27/2013 FWFC Blue B98 vs Eastside FC White B98, HW 36%, AW 32%, T 31%, pred score 1-0.9
04/27/2013 Harbor Premier B98 vs FC Alliance A B98, HW 60%, AW 19%, T 21%, pred score 2-1.1
04/27/2013 Kent United Green B98 vs Westsound FC Red B98, HW 51%, AW 23%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-0.9
 
Bracket predictions 

Individual games predictions

This doesn't seem to have regular bracketing.  A is playing B.  So I didn't simulate it.  Link above has individual match predictions. 

Here's the bracket C results though.

 
WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket C
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Kent United Green B98          68  21   8   2   0

PacNW Blue B98                 18  36  27  15   5
FWFC Blue B98                  10  25  30  24  11

Highline Premier Blue B98       4  15  26  34  21
Pacific FC White-Cheetahs B98   0   3  10  24  62


------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

B98 WA Challenge Cup Div 2  (WSYSA schedule and results)

Semi finals predictions

B98 WA Challenge Cup Div 2 semis 
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 Crossfire Premier C B98 vs Crossfire Select Manao B98, HW 10%, AW 76%, T 14%, pred score 1-2.8
04/27/2013 Seattle United Samba B98 vs Eastside FC Blue B98, HW 66%, AW 13%, T 21%, pred score 1.9-0.7
 

Bracket predictions

Individual games predictions 

WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket A
                         1st 2nd 3rd 4th
SSC Shadow A B98          46  33  18   3
Seattle United Samba B98  35  34  25   6
Whatcom Rangers Blue B98  18  29  42  10
Crossfire Premier D B98    1   4  14  81


WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket B
                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Premier C B98  84  13   3   0
WA Rush Swoosh B98       10  46  31  13
PacNW White B98           5  32  40  24
FWFC White B98            1  10  26  63


WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket C
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Select Manao B98  90  10   0   0
Eastside FC Blue B98        10  87   3   0
Snohomish United Red B98     0   2  57  41
FC Alliance B B98            0   1  40  59

WA B98 Champions Cup Predictions

April 25, 2013: Updated with quarter finals predictions

B98 WA Champions Cup (WSYSA schedule and results)

Quarter finals predictions 

B98 WA Champions Cup qtr 
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 Crossfire Premier A B98 vs Blackhills FC Black B98, HW 77%, AW 9%, T 14%, pred score 2.7-0.8
04/27/2013 Eastside FC Red B98 vs Seattle United Copa B98, HW 44%, AW 33%, T 23%, pred score 1.7-1.4
04/27/2013 WA Rush Nike B98 vs Whatcom Rangers Gold B98, HW 98%, AW 0%, T 1%, pred score 5.2-0.3
04/27/2013 WPFC Black B98 vs Seattle United Tango B98, HW 76%, AW 8%, T 16%, pred score 2.3-0.6

Bracket predictions 

Individual games predictions 

WA Champions Cup Bracket A
                         1st 2nd 3rd 4th
WPFC Black B98            70  30   0   0
PacNW Maroon B98          30  68   2   0
Whatcom Rangers Gold B98   0   0  12  88
Crossfire Premier B B98    0   2  86  12


WA Champions Cup Bracket B
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th
WA Rush Nike B98            95   5   0   0
Seattle United Tango B98     5  83  11   2
Snohomish United Black B98   0  10  57  33
FC Spokane Black B98         0   3  32  65


WA Champions Cup Bracket C
                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastside FC Red B98      96   4   0   0
Blackhills FC Black B98   3  56  29  12
WSA Blazers B98           2  29  41  29
WPFC White B98            0  11  29  59


WA Champions Cup Bracket D
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United Copa B98    67  32   1   0
Crossfire Premier A B98    33  65   3   0
Vancouver Timbers Red B98   0   3  59  38
NWN Red B98                 0   1  38  62

B98 PacNW Winter Classic Predictions

The U14 Premier Division
Schedules: http://www.pacificnorthwestsoccerclub.org/schedules/2013/46281533.html
I didn't do the second premier division since that has B99s and B98s and I don't have a model with both ages in it yet.

Brackets

PacNw Winter Classic A
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Premier B B98     0   2  25  73
Tacoma United Chelsea B98   2  11  62  26
WPFC Black B98             64  32   4   0
PacNW Maroon B98           34  55   9   1


PacNw Winter Classic B
                      1st 2nd 3rd 4th
WPFC White B98         56  25  13   6
FC Alliance A B98      16  27  30  28
Eastside FC White B98  18  28  29  25
PacNW Blue B98         10  21  29  41

Prelim Matches

Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 01/18/2013
---------------------------------------------
01/18/2013 Crossfire Premier B B98 vs PacNW Maroon B98, HW 3%, AW 88%, T 9%, pred score 0.5-3.1
01/18/2013 Tacoma United Chelsea B98 vs WPFC Black B98, HW 4%, AW 82%, T 13%, pred score 0.4-2.4
01/19/2013 WPFC White B98 vs Eastside FC White B98, HW 54%, AW 21%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-0.9
01/19/2013 FC Alliance A B98 vs PacNW Blue B98, HW 46%, AW 34%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.8
01/19/2013 WPFC Black B98 vs Crossfire Premier B B98, HW 91%, AW 2%, T 8%, pred score 3-0.2
01/19/2013 PacNW Maroon B98 vs Tacoma United Chelsea B98, HW 76%, AW 9%, T 15%, pred score 2.5-0.7
01/19/2013 Eastside FC White B98 vs FC Alliance A B98, HW 41%, AW 36%, T 23%, pred score 1.7-1.6
01/20/2013 Crossfire Premier B B98 vs Tacoma United Chelsea B98, HW 20%, AW 59%, T 21%, pred score 1-2
01/20/2013 PacNW Blue B98 vs WPFC White B98, HW 15%, AW 65%, T 20%, pred score 1-2.2
01/20/2013 PacNW Maroon B98 vs WPFC Black B98, HW 20%, AW 47%, T 33%, pred score 0.6-1.1
01/20/2013 Eastside FC White B98 vs PacNW Blue B98, HW 46%, AW 30%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1.3
01/20/2013 FC Alliance A B98 vs WPFC White B98, HW 19%, AW 61%, T 20%, pred score 1.1-2.2

B98 WA Cup Founders Predictions

Round of 16

Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 01/14/2013
---------------------------------------------
01/19/2013 TBSC Draguns FC B98 vs Highline Select B98, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 7.2-0.3
01/19/2013 TC United B98 vs Vancouver United Soccer Alliance, HW 29%, AW 51%, T 19%, pred score 1.8-2.4
01/19/2013 Seattle United S Black B98 vs WS Ajax B98, HW 98%, AW 0%, T 1%, pred score 6.2-0.7
01/19/2013 Seattle United W Blue B98 vs Crossfire Select Lewis B98, HW 71%, AW 12%, T 17%, pred score 2.4-0.9
01/19/2013 TUSK Lightning B98 vs Crossfire Select Mele B98, HW 69%, AW 8%, T 22%, pred score 1.7-0.4
01/19/2013 Kent United Green B98 vs Mercer Island FC Whitecaps B98, HW 97%, AW 1%, T 3%, pred score 4.3-0.3
01/19/2013 FC Edmonds BOO YAHS B98 vs Seattle United Shoreline Blue B98, HW 35%, AW 43%, T 22%, pred score 1.7-1.9
01/19/2013 Impact FC Black B98 vs Sparta B98, HW 60%, AW 22%, T 18%, pred score 2.6-1.6

League Comparisons B98

The B98's show a lot of leagues with huge variance---these are leagues were the top few teams score heavily against the bottom teams.  You see this in the standings by ca 50 and -50 goal differentials for the top and bottom teams.   Leagues where there are 1 or 2 teams way below the others are cases where you see goal differentials of -90 to -70 for the bottom teams.  Perhaps this is a developmental issue since the pattern is seen across the B98 leagues.  These are mostly 8th grade boys, and that age is characterized by huge developmental differences; some 8th graders still look like boys while others look almost like men.

I've circled two cases where teams in a lower league are higher than the top team in the next league up.  All of these are cases of new teams coming into a league.  One is the new B98 team that entered the RCL via the Open Cup and was placed in D3. The other circle is for 3 new teams in the PSPL that were placed in Classic 1.

Another interesting difference from the younger leagues is the strength of the WSPL. In the three younger ages I've looked at---G01, B00, B99---the WSPL is similar to RCL D2, but for the B98s, it is a little below RCL D2.   RCL D1 U14 shows some interesting similarities and differences from RCL D1 U12 and 13.  Like in the younger ages, we see a couple D1 teams that are much stronger than the other D1 teams, but in U12 and U13, D1 was pretty tight in terms of strengths.  In U14, it has become very spread out in strength---like many of the BU14 leagues.  This manifests itself in huge goal differentials in these spread out leagues.