Showing posts with label WA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WA. Show all posts

Sunday, May 25, 2014

High schools attended by players on the Crossfire and Sounders Academy U15/U16 teams 2010-2014

Crossfire Academy

Using the rosters on the http://ussda.demosphere.com pages for the Crossfire Academy U15/U16 teams for the last 4 years and recorded data on the high school listed for each player.  In most cases the HS was listed on the USSDA team page.  When it wasn't, I did a google search.  In many cases a google search would come up with a local article mentioning them in a HS game (soccer or other sport).  High schools were categorized as Eastside (Redmond, Bellevue, Issaquah, Mercer Island), Seattle/Shoreline, South SeaTac (Tacoma, Auburn, Kent, etc), Everett/Snohomish Area and Other.  Very few players were in Other. High Schools in each category are at the bottom.

The figure shows the fraction from a high school in each region for players listed on the roster of the Crossfire Academy U15/16 team (all players listed) from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014.  Overall the fraction of players from Seattle and South SeaTac high schools declined during the 4 seasons with sudden drop of players attending Seattle area high schools in the 2013-2014 season.




Interestingly the Seattle high schools for the players is overwhelmingly private.  Seattle private high school attendance is approximately 20%, while 70% of the academy players attended a private high school.  Sample size is small however (7 players with 2 public and 5 private).  The private/public split of the players attending eastside high schools matches the approximate private HS attendance on the eastsite (ca 10%).  12% of players going to an eastside HS attended a private school.  Sample size was 25 players (22 public and 3 private).



Sounders Academy

Same plot except that I wasn't able to get HS (not listed on the USSDA website) but the home town is listed.  So this shows home town.

Sounders and Crossfire U15/16 Academies together



Raw numbers
Note that roster # on the USSDA team page in 2011-2012 was unusually high.


U15/U16 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Eastside 6 5 3 11
Seattle/Shoreline 5 5 2 0
Everett-Snohomish 4 4 2 2
South SeaTac 7 8 3 3
Other 1 5 4 1
EWA 1 3 1 0
Alaska 0 0 0 1
Unknown 3 2 4 4
Total known 24 30 15 18
Total 27 32 19 22

























































Categorization of HSs

Eastside (private are *)
Redmond, Mercer Island, Issaquah, Sammamish, Eastlake, Bellevue, Skyline, International Community School, Eastside Catholic*, Bellevue Christian*

Seattle/Shoreline is HSs in the SYSA boundaries.
 Seattle (private are *)
HS: Nathan Hale, Ballard, Lakeside*, Seattle Prep*, Seattle Christian*
Shoreline
HS: Shorecrest

South SeaTac
HS: Todd Beamer, Auburn Riverside, Puyallup, Mount Rainier, Stadium, Decatur, Highline, Thomas Jefferson, Woodrow Wilson, Kentridge, Rodgers, Emerald Ridge, Tacoma Baptist*

Everett/Snohomish/North SeaTac
Inglemoor, Glacier Peak, Snohomish, Everett, Meadowdale, Woodinville, Monroe, Henry M. Jackson





Thursday, April 17, 2014

2013-2014 Boys team strength across WA clubs

Following up on last years longer analysis of the strength of Washington clubs for boys,
here is an analysis of the strength of every select club's top boys team at U11-U18 in Washington.

Plot 1 shows and overview with Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC in red and every other club in black.  The green line is the median of all the black lines.


Plot 2 breaks this out by individual club.  This gives an overview of the types of teams difference clubs produce, what strength their A teams tends to be at, and whether the club fields teams at every age.

The red line is the median strength of the top teams at age in Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC. The are the four largest and strongest clubs in Washington and consistently produce a top 4 team across most every age. The dotted-red line is a strength -2 below the top team (or -200 on new scaling). The predicted goal ratio in a match-up between a team on the red line and one on the dotted red line is 4, so 4-1 or 8-2. So the red line team is heavily expected to win, but it would still be a somewhat competitive game. The green line is the median across all the top teams from every select club in Washington, except those top 4.

B02 at far left, B95 at far right. 
1pt difference is about the length of this hyphen - on this graph. Yes, small. Being 1 full pt stronger = scoring 2x as rapidly so is a significant advantage. So being on the green line versus slightly above it indicates a big difference in strength. The red line teams score about 80-100x more rapidly than the green line teams...







Wednesday, March 12, 2014

RCL D1 regional distribution

Here I look at the regional distribution of boys teams in the RCL D1 for fall 2013.  The RCL D1 is the strongest level of play in WA for all age groups except B97.  RCL is a closed league (closed to the clubs shown in the graphs).  However, except for B97, most WA teams at this level are playing in this league (the largest soccer clubs in WA are in the RCL so this is not surprising).

BU11-14
RCL is a state-wide league, but the top division in BU11-14 (32 teams) has about the lowest travel of any league/division.  Almost all teams (29 of 32) come from the SE Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area: Redmond, Seattle, Preston, Woodinville, Tukwila, and Tacoma.  The longest distance, Woodinville-Tacoma is 50miles (ca 1 hr) and most games would involve under 30min of travel.  In the fall 2013 season, there were no teams from E WA, W side of Puget Sound or the Portland Metro area in RCL D1.  There was 1 team from N WA (Bellingham) and 2 from the N Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area (Everett area).

BU15-18
At the HS age, BU15-18 (again 32 teams) the regional distribution of teams is more diverse and more "state-wide".  In fall 2013, most teams (21 of 32) still came from the SE Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area. But N WA (Bellingham) had a team at 3 of the 4 age groups, and N Seattle Metro area (Everett) at least 1 team at each age group although these teams were not in the same club. There are 3 N Seattle Metro area RCL clubs: NWN, Rush and Snohomish. At U15, Rush had a team in D1, at U16 Snohomish, at U17 both Snohomish and Rush, and at U18 NWN.  This suggests that the N Seattle Metro area only has sufficient players to support 1 D1 team at the HS age.  This might explain why there are no D1 N Seattle Metro teams at BU11-14 as significant cross-club player-migration is needed to form a D1 team and this doesn't happen until HS age.

The Bellingham Metro area, despite being only the 5th largest metro area in the state, is well-represented in the HS RCL D1 with teams at 3 of the 4 ages.  The 4th largest metro area in WA is the Tri-Cities and is again is about 2x the size of the Bellingham metro area, but had only 2 teams in D1.  The N Portland Metro area (WA side) is the 3rd largest metro area and also about 2x as big as Bellingham, but is even less represented in RCL D1 at the HS age (1 team).  The second largest metro area in WA, the Spokane metro area, has no teams in the RCL D1.


What is driving these patterns?  The most obvious is population size.  If we look at county size versus # of HS boys teams in the RCL D1, we see see a strong relationship. 
  • King Co: Crossfire, SU, Eastside, PacNW, FCA
  • Snohomish: Snohomish United, NWN, WA Rush
  • Pierce: WPFC, FWFC, Harbor, Slammers
  • Spokane: SSC
  • Clark+Skamania: WA Timbers
  • Tri-Cities (Benton+Franklin)+Yakima: Three Rivers and Three Rivers Yakima
  • Whatcom+Skagit: Whatcom Rangers
  • Kitsap+Mason: Westound
  • #s from here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_statistical_areas


A couple things jump out:
  • Whatcom Rangers appears to over-produce RCL D1 teams relative to what you would expect given the population size of Whatcom+Skagit counties.  Both the Whatcom region has PSPL "competitors" but not at the RCL D1 level.
  • Spokane metro area has 2-3 fewer RCL D1 teams than expected.  However Spokane does have 3 HS teams at RCL D1 strengths, but they do not play in the RCL D1 (2 in PSPL D1 and 1 in RCL D2).
When we plot the same relationship for the younger ages U11-14 (red line and dots), there seems a very different pattern:
 First, it looks like the size of the player pool has a much bigger effect at the younger ages.  There seems to be a minimum population size of about 500,000 before a region is able to produce a team strong enough to compete in the RCL D1.

HOWEVER, there RCL is promotion-relegation and it may be that there is a initial selection bias at U11 towards the King County clubs and that this takes a few seasons to work its way out.  Next up, I want to repeat this but with my team strength estimates which won't have this initial selection bias.


Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Where WA boys U11-14 play select soccer

I took all the teams BU11-14 and divided them into E WA vs W WA.  There are 546 boys teams in the WA select soccer leagues.



Where W WA plays
65% of W WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USYS leagues: PML, DIII, NPSL, and RCL. The main leagues are the NPSL and RCL.  The former is open to all USYS leagues while the latter is a closed league with only some USYS clubs sanctioned as "RCL" clubs.  The strongest teams in the state play in RCL division 1 (15 out of 16) and come from almost exclusively four western WA clubs: Seattle United, Eastside, WPFC, and Crossfire Premier (15 out of 16 with the 16th being another W WA club).  PML, DIII, and NPSL are regional leagues serving respectively Vancouver/Portland region, south Puget Sound, and north Puget Sound.  Outside of RCL division 1, the strength of competition in the leagues overlaps considerably.  35% of W WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USCS leagues: PSPL and OPL.  OPL serves the Vancouver area WA teams (and Oregon) and PSPL is a state-wide league.  However, approx 20% of W WA teams in the PSPL are in the Copa division which is restricted to western WA.



Where E WA plays
In contrast to W WA, only 30% of boys U11-14 teams play in the USYS leagues: DIV and RCL. 70% of E WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USCS leagues: PSPL and PSPL-inland.  PSPL is the state-wide league and PSPL-inland is restricted to eastern WA teams.  The strongest eastern WA teams generally (9 out of the top 16) play in the PSPL league, with the older ages more often in the WSPL (state-wide) and younger strong teams often found in the PSPL-inland league.  5 out of the top 16 eastern WA teams play in the RCL and 2 in the DIV league.



Monday, January 13, 2014

WA B96 Founders Cup Bracket predictions

B96 Founders Cup

 Individual game predictions

Bracket finishing predictions
Founders Cup Bracket A
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Lake Hills Diablos B96       4  12  19  28  37
Seattle United NE Blue B96  64  21   9   4   2
BIFC Blue B96               14  27  25  20  14
Seattle United W Blue B96   14  28  26  20  13
MVP Rapids White B96         4  12  20  29  35


Founders Cup Bracket B
                            1st 2nd 3rd
Newport FC Reign B96         48  36  16
FC Edmonds Hurricane B96     42  38  20
Crossfire Select Barnes B96  11  26  63


Founders Cup Bracket C
                           1st 2nd 3rd
TUSK Stingrays B96          11  81   8
South Whidbey Reign B95     89  11   0
Seattle United W White B96   0   8  92

WA B97 Founders Cup Bracket predictions

B97 Founders Cup

Individual game predictions

Bracket finishing predictions
Founders Cup Bracket A
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
ISC Arsenal Red B97          1  35  35  28   2
Kent United White B97        0   0   1   5  94
Newport FC Nova B97          0  20  31  45   4
PSC Thunder B97              1  43  34  22   1
Seattle United NE Blue B97  97   3   0   0   0


Founders Cup Bracket B
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Mercer Island FC Warriors B97  30  34  31   4   1
Seattle United W Blue B97      23  32  38   6   1
BIFC Blue B97                   0   1   7  50  42
Crossfire Select Cline B97     47  31  20   2   0
NWSC Islanders B97              0   1   5  38  56


Founders Cup Bracket C
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Seattle United Shoreline Blue B97   6  21  37  33   2
WS Barca B97                        0   0   1   7  92
NSC Titans B97                     68  23   8   2   0
Washington Timbers Crimson B97      4  14  30  47   5
Crossfire Select Enslow B97        22  42  24  11   0


Founders Cup Bracket D
                                1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
NSC Celtic B97                    1   5  28  43  22
Washington Timbers Burgundy B97   2  11  47  29  10
Lake Hills Impact B97            59  34   6   1   0
Norpoint AC Milan B97             0   1   8  25  67
WS Jets B97                      37  49  11   2   0

Sunday, January 12, 2014

WA B98 Founders Cup Bracket predictions

B98 Founders Cup

Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing predictions
Founders Cup Bracket A
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Washington Timbers Crimson B98   0   2  23  75
Crossfire Select Lewis B98       0  12  64  24
Tacoma United Chelsea Jrs B98    4  82  13   1
Seattle United S Black B98      96   4   0   0


Founders Cup Bracket B
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Highline Select B98         1   2   6  20  70
Lake Hills Flash B98        7  14  23  38  18
Seattle United S Blue B98  27  28  25  15   4
TUSK Lightning B98         26  28  26  16   5
Kent United White B98      39  28  20  10   2


Founders Cup Bracket C
                                1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Mercer Island FC Whitecaps B98   41  35  18   6   0
Washington Timbers Burgundy B98  11  23  41  24   1
Seattle United NE Blue B98        3   9  25  59   5
TC United B98                    45  34  16   5   0
Newport FC Raiders B98            0   0   0   6  94


Founders Cup Bracket D
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Impact FC Black B98                85  13   2   0   0
Seattle United Shoreline Blue B98   1  16  35  34  15
Mukilteo Rush Lions B98             1  15  33  34  17
Seattle United W Blue B98           0   2   9  23  66
Crossfire Select Mele B98          13  54  22   9   2

WA B99 Founders Bracket predictions

B99 Founders Cup

 Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing predictions
Founders Cup Bracket A
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Select Taylor B99   63  24  10   2
Seattle United NE Blue B99     2   7  20  71
Storm King B99                16  33  37  14
Mercer Island FC Tornado B99  20  36  32  13


Founders Cup Bracket B
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Lake Hills Synergy B99          16  72  12   0   0
Washington Timbers Crimson B99   0   0   1  27  72
Impact FC Black B99             83  16   1   0   0
TC United B99                    0   0   7  66  27
Seattle United S Blue B99        1  12  79   7   1


Founders Cup Bracket C
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Seattle United S Black B99  60  26  12   3   0
Whatcom Rangers White B99    0   0   0   4  96
Crossfire Select Yerxa B99   2   9  22  63   3
Kent United White B99       22  35  30  13   0
FC Edmonds Forza B99        16  30  36  17   0


Founders Cup Bracket D
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
ISC Arsenal Red B99                 0   0   2  11  87
Newport FC Warriors B99             5  19  42  30   4
Seattle United Shoreline Blue B99  24  47  21   7   0
Seattle United W Blue B99           2  10  29  50   8
NSC Fusion B99                     68  24   6   1   0

WA B00 Founders Cup Bracket predictions

B00 Founders Cup

Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing predictions
Founders Cup Bracket A
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Select Buckley B00   2  30  47  21 2nd
SGESC Fusion Blue B00          6  56  30   8 3rd
Washington Timbers Ruby B00    0   6  23  71 4th
Seattle United NE Blue B00    92   7   1   0 1st


Founders Cup Bracket B
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United Shoreline Blue B00  26  69   4   0 2nd
Crossfire Select Button B00        74  26   1   0 1st
ISC Arsenal Red B00                 0   0  17  83 4th
Whatcom Rangers White B00           0   5  78  17 3rd


Founders Cup Bracket C
                                1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Highline Select Panthers B00     13  26  42  19 1st
Seattle United S Black B00       55  30  13   2 3rd
Washington Timbers Burgundy B00   1   6  21  72 4th
Crossfire Select Greenwalt B00   31  38  24   7 2nd


Founders Cup Bracket D
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Impact FC Black B00         6  69  25   0 1st
Kent United White B00       0  25  74   1 3rd
Seattle United S Blue B00  93   7   0   0 2nd
Whatcom Rangers Black B00   0   0   1  98 4th


Founders Cup Bracket E
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th
BYSC Select Cochran B00      4  46  39  10 4th
Seattle United W Blue B00    3  43  42  12 2nd
Newport FC Cosmos B00        0   5  18  78 3rd
3 Rivers Yakima Borges B00  93   6   1   0 1st


Founders Cup Bracket F
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
SGESC Fusion Red B00           0   0   4  16  80 4th
Storm King B00                52  42   5   1   0 2nd
Mercer Island FC Gunners B00   1   6  43  40  10 5th
Seattle United W White B00     1   6  41  42  11 3rd
Crossfire Select Merrick B00  46  46   7   1   0 1st


Founders Cup Bracket G
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
NSC Dynamo B00                   5  29  40  27   0 3rd
UPSC Lightning B00              12  45  29  14   0 2nd
FC Edmonds Fury B00             82  14   3   1   0 1st
Washington Timbers Scarlet B00   0   0   0   1  99 5th
Lake Hills Fury B00              1  12  28  57   1 4th

WA B95-94 Challenge Cup Bracket predictions

B94 WA Challenge Cup Div 1

 Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket A
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
BIFC Blue B95              72  28   0   0
Crossfire Premier 2nd B95  28  67   4   0
FC Alliance A B94           0   2  49  49
NWN Blue B95                0   2  47  51


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket B
                                   1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pacific FC Fire Orange-Rangers B95   8  18  30  45
Seattle United Tango B95            57  25  13   5
South Kitsap Select B95             23  33  26  17
Seattle United Samba B95            12  24  31  32


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket C
                         1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Harbor Premier Green B95  46  34  20   0
Lake Hills Velocity B95   40  37  22   0
Kent United Green B95      0   0   1  99
FWFC White B95            14  28  57   1


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket D
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Select Jinneman B95  68  28   4   0
Eastside FC White B95          30  58  11   1
PacNW Blue B95                  0   2  24  73
Blackhills FC Black B95         2  12  60  25

WA B96 Challenge Cup Bracket predictions

B96 WA Challenge Cup

Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket A
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United Tango B96     52  48   0   0
WPFC White B96               48  52   0   0
Slammers Orange B96           0   0  42  58
3 Rivers Yakima Mendoza B96   0   0  58  42


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket B
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
PacNW White B96                13  23  29  35
Harbor Premier Green B96       22  29  27  22
Crossfire Select Gonzalez B96  53  25  14   7
Blackhills FC Black B96        13  23  30  35


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket C
                                1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastside FC White B96            39  35  18   8
PacNW Blue B96                    9  19  37  35
Washington Timbers Burgundy B96  48  32  14   5
Westsound FC Red B96              5  13  30  52


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket D
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Premier 2nd B96    10  22  42  25
Washington Timbers Red B96   43  35  17   5
Mercer Island FC United B96  44  34  17   5
WA Rush Nero B96              2   9  25  64

WA B98 Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket predictions

B98 WA Challenge Cup Div 2

Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket A
                     1st 2nd 3rd
FWFC White B98         2  26  72
PacNW White B98       10  63  27
Eastside FC Blue B98  88  10   1


WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket B
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Snohomish United Red B98        2  11  33  53
WA Rush Nero B98               33  45  17   6
Pacific FC White-Cheetahs B98  60  29   8   2
WPFC Navy B98                   4  15  42  39


WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket C
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th
FC Alliance B B98            0  11  39  50
Harbor Premier Green B98     5  70  18   6
Crossfire Select Manao B98  94   6   0   0
Whatcom Rangers Blue B98     0  13  42  44

WA B97 Challenge Cup Bracket predictions

B97 WA Challenge Cup Div 1

Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket A
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Nortac Colibri Pablo B97    17  25  28  20  10
Washington Timbers Red B97  27  30  23  14   6 #2
Kent United Green B97        6  13  22  34  25
Snohomish United Red B97    49  27  15   7   2 #1
Whatcom Rangers Blue B97     1   5  11  25  57


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket B
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Crossfire Premier 2nd B97   5  26  54  15   0
FC Alliance A B97           0   3  17  75   5
FWFC White B97              0   0   0   5  95
Seattle United Tango B97   80  17   3   0   0 #1
FWFC Blue B97              15  55  26   4   0 #2


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket C
                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Storm King B97            1   4  14  51  30 #2!
PacNW Blue B97            0   1   5  28  66
WPFC White B97           48  30  18   4   0
Eastside FC White B97    24  31  33  10   2 #1
Blackhills FC Black B97  27  33  30   8   2

B98 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket prediciton

B98 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 (based on data up to Jan 10 before 1st matches)

Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing prediction
WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket A
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastside FC White B98      21  48  25   6
PacNW Blue B98              7  26  49  19
Tacoma United Chelsea B98  72  22   6   1
FWFC Blue B98               1   5  20  74


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket B
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
FC Alliance A B98          72  24   4   1
SSC Shadow A B98            1   8  39  52
Blackhills FC Black B98    25  56  15   4
Highline Premier Blue B98   2  12  42  44


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket C
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Washington Timbers Green B98   4  12  27  30  26
NWN Red B98                    2   6  17  29  46
Crossfire Premier C B98        5  14  28  29  24
WPFC White B98                58  28  10   4   1
Seattle United Samba B98      32  40  18   8   3

Saturday, April 27, 2013

WA B00 Challenge Cup predictions

Scroll down for Division 2

B00 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 WSYSA schedule and scores
Bracket predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket A
                                 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
 
Eastside FC White B00 (#11)      43  32  18   8 
Highline Premier Blue B00 (#14)  41  34  19   7
WPFC White B00  (#21)            13  24  37  26
FC Alliance B B00 (#25)           4  11  26  60


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket B
                                 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United Tango B00 (#8)     90  10   0   0
 
Nortac Colibri B00 (#20)           9  76  13   2
Whatcom Rangers Gold B00 (#36)     0  12  63  24
WSA Rangers B00 (#50)              0   3  24  74


B00 WA Challenge Cup Div 2 WSYSA schedule and scores


Finals prediction
BIFC Blue B00 vs Eastside FC Blue B00, HW 67%, AW 15%, T 18%, pred score 2.4-1.1  

Semis predictions
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 BIFC Blue B00 vs Seattle United Samba B00, HW 37%, AW 39%, T 24%, pred score 1.5-1.5
04/27/2013 Eastside FC Blue B00 vs PacNW Blue B00, HW 55%, AW 21%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1

Bracket predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket A
                                 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
   fall league
BIFC Blue B00  (#26)              46  37  13   4   NPSL 1
3 Rivers Black B00  (#23)         46  36  14   4
   RCL 3

Westsound FC Red B00  (#44)        6  18  42  34   RCL 2
Crossfire Premier C B00 (#55)      2   9  30  58   RCL 3
 
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket B
                                 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
 
Eastside FC Blue B00 (#46)        67  21   9   3  RCL 3
FWFC Blue B00 (#63)               16  34  29  22  RCL 3
Harbor Premier Select B00 (#69)    8  24  32  36  RCL 3
Blackhills FC Black B00 (#73)      8  22  30  40  RCL 4
 

WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket C
                                 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Seattle United Samba B00 (#29)    92   7   1   0  RCL 3
PacNW Blue B00 (#66)               6  56  38   0  RCL 3
WPFC Navy B00  (#80)               2  37  60   1  RCL 4
Crossfire Premier D B00 (#127)     0   0   2  98  RCL 4



WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket D
                                 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Slammers Orange B00  (#82)        61  25  11   3  RCL 4
WA Rush Swoosh B00 (#98)          18  34  34  14  RCL 4
Snohomish United Red B00 (#100)   18  33  33  16  RCL 4

Eastside FC Grey B00 (#115)        2   8  22  67  RCL 4

Friday, April 26, 2013

B98 WA Cup Qtr, Semi, and Finals predictions


B98 WA Cup SILVER quarter finals 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
05/03/2013 Kajumulo FC Tembo B98 vs Seattle Celtic FC A B98, HW 25%, AW 56%, T 19%, pred score 1.7-2.5
05/03/2013 WPFC Fury Navy B98 vs MVP Rapids Navy B98, HW 16%, AW 70%, T 14%, pred score 1.8-3.5 
 
B98 WA Cup GOLD quarter finals 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
05/04/2013 ISC Gunners A B98 vs Wenatchee Fire Black B98, HW 42%, AW 41%, T 16%, pred score 3.2-3.1 05/04/2013 MRFC Blue B98 vs XiFA 2017 B98, HW 27%, AW 38%, T 35%, pred score 0.7-0.9 05/04/2013 Washington East SC Seely B98 vs NW United Struk B98, HW 67%, AW 14%, T 18%, pred score 2.3-1 05/04/2013 WPFC Fury Black B98 vs Tacoma United Chelsea B98, HW 7%, AW 78%, T 14%, pred score 0.6-2.5

B99 WA Cup Qtr, Semi, and Finals predictions


B99 WA Cup Gold quarter finals 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
05/04/2013 Emerald City FC Green B99 vs San Carlos Bombers B99, HW 4%, AW 86%, T 11%, pred score 0.4-2.8
05/04/2013 Tacoma United Manchester B99 vs Cobra Aguilitas B99, HW 3%, AW 90%, T 7%, pred score 0.9-4.1 
 
B99 WA Cup Silver quarter finals 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
05/04/2013 MVP Rapids Navy B99 vs NW United Powell B99, HW 6%, AW 78%, T 15%, pred score 0.5-2.3 05/04/2013 Pumas UNAM Seattle B99 vs WPFC Fury Black B99, HW 31%, AW 39%, T 30%, pred score 1-1.1

Saturday, April 6, 2013

WA Cup Puget Sound Prelim Predictions (U12, U13, U14)

If the E WA and W WA prelim rounds equal numbers of teams, then the top 4 teams from the preliminary rounds go to the Gold semi-final round and the next 4 go to the Silver semi-final round.  However because the E WA and W WA numbers are not even, it won't be quite like that.  Nonetheless, PSPL hasn't posted the #s yet.   But nonetheless, assuming 4 teams go on to Gold, I marked my predictions for which teams those will be.  In some cases, a few teams were tied so I marked those lighter yellow.  I marked 'dark horses' green.  Most of the rest of the teams will make it on to the Silver round, but we won't know how many won't make it past the first weekend until PSPL posts the #s.

Predicted top 4 marked Gold (Yellow) and dark horses marked green for top 4.
PSPL schedule webpage


WA Cup GS U12  (individual game predictions)
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Cascade FC Green B00          13  22  32  23  10   1   0   0   0    0
ISC Gunners A B00             48  30  15   6   0   0   0   0   0    0
Normandy Park FC White B00    35  33  19  10   4   0   0   0   0    0
Tynecastle FC Outliers B00     4  13  29  42   7   3   0   0   0    0
Nortac Cosmos B00              0   0   1   6  18  62  10   2   0    0
RSA Elite Diamondbacks B00     0   1   4  13  60  21   1   0   0    0
FC Salmon Creek Juventus B00   0   0   0   0   0   1  17  29  33   21
Fuerza FC Academy B00          0   0   0   0   0   0   5  15  25   55
MRFC Blue B00                  0   0   0   0   0   8  42  24  16    9
MVP Rapids Navy B00            0   0   0   0   0   4  26  29  26   15


WA Cup GS U13
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Cobra Aguilitas B99           69  19   8   3   1   0   0   0   0    0
NW United Powell B99           5  18  28  25  12   6   3   1   1    0
San Carlos Bombers B99        19  42  23  11   3   1   0   0   0    0
Tacoma United Manchester B99   5  17  26  26  11   7   4   2   1    0
Kent United Green B99          1   2   7  15  30  23  11   7   4    2
RSA Elite B99                  0   2   5  11  22  25  16  10   6    2
Emerald City FC Green B99      0   0   1   3   6  11  18  23  22   18
MVP Rapids Navy B99            0   0   0   2   4   8  16  20  26   25
Pumas UNAM Seattle B99         0   0   0   1   2   4  10  16  26   42
WPFC Fury Black B99            0   1   2   4   9  14  23  21  15   11

B98 WA Cup GS

WA Cup GS U14
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
NW United Struk B98        10  62  18   7   2   1   0   0   0    0    0    0    0
Seattle Celtic FC A B98     0   0   0   1   1   6  46  20  10   10    3    1    0
Tacoma United Chelsea B98  87  11   1   0   0   0   0   0   0    0    0    0    0
Emerald City FC Green B98   1   6  19  20  23  21   5   3   1    0    0    0    0
ISC Gunners A B98           1   8  23  22  23  17   3   2   1    0    0    0    0
Kajumulo FC Tembo B98       0   0   0   1   2   6  14  24  26   13    8    4    1
MRFC Blue B98               1   7  19  24  21  19   5   3   1    0    0    0    0
MVP Rapids Navy B98         0   0   0   1   3   8  17  29  28    6    3    2    1
WPFC Fury Black B98         1   6  18  23  24  20   4   2   1    0    0    0    0
MRFC White B98              0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   4   11   16   26   41
Pumas UNAM B98              0   0   0   0   0   0   2   4   7   21   26   23   17
RSA Elite B98               0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   6   12   19   29   32
WPFC Fury Navy B98          0   0   0   0   0   1   3   8  14   25   24   15    8

B99 WA Cup Bronze

WA Cup Bronze U13
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
Cascade FC B99              0   4  20  31  25  19
FC Crush Classic B99        0   1   5  12  25  57
MRFC Blue B99              33  47  13   5   1   0
MVP Rapids White B99        2  12  34  26  18   9
Tacoma United Chelsea B99   0   5  23  25  31  15
Legacy FC Maroon B99       64  31   4   1   0   0

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Fall league comparisons B00

Scaled so that 0 is the median strength of the B00 teams. Note this is uses the old scaling of teams, but shows how the WA, OR and BC fall leagues compare.