The WA, OR, ID boys are updated approximately biweekly through the end of the U11-U14 season.
Time-weighted Poisson regression for estimating attack and defense strengths of youth U11-18 football (soccer) teams.
Showing posts with label B00. Show all posts
Showing posts with label B00. Show all posts
Monday, February 2, 2015
PNW Boys U11-U18 updated biweekly through end of season
The WA, OR, ID boys are updated approximately biweekly through the end of the U11-U14 season.
Friday, April 18, 2014
2013-2014 Club strength across A, B and C teams (boys)
Same as previous analysis for team strength across ages across clubs but now showing the A, B, and C teams in a club. Only 16 clubs that had enough B teams across multiple ages to have an interesting plot. B team also needed to be strong enough to appear on my plot (not fall off the bottom of the y-axis).
8 data points. B02 (U11) on the far left and B95 (U18) on the far right. Red line is the median of the A teams from WPFC, Crossfire, Seattle United and Eastside. Green line is the median across all select teams (not clubs) in WA.
8 data points. B02 (U11) on the far left and B95 (U18) on the far right. Red line is the median of the A teams from WPFC, Crossfire, Seattle United and Eastside. Green line is the median across all select teams (not clubs) in WA.
Thursday, April 17, 2014
2013-2014 Boys team strength across WA clubs
Following up on last years longer analysis of the strength of Washington clubs for boys,
here is an analysis of the strength of every select club's top boys team at U11-U18 in Washington.
Plot 1 shows and overview with Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC in red and every other club in black. The green line is the median of all the black lines.
Plot 2 breaks this out by individual club. This gives an overview of the types of teams difference clubs produce, what strength their A teams tends to be at, and whether the club fields teams at every age.
The red line is the median strength of the top teams at age in Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC. The are the four largest and strongest clubs in Washington and consistently produce a top 4 team across most every age. The dotted-red line is a strength -2 below the top team (or -200 on new scaling). The predicted goal ratio in a match-up between a team on the red line and one on the dotted red line is 4, so 4-1 or 8-2. So the red line team is heavily expected to win, but it would still be a somewhat competitive game. The green line is the median across all the top teams from every select club in Washington, except those top 4.
Plot 1 shows and overview with Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC in red and every other club in black. The green line is the median of all the black lines.
Plot 2 breaks this out by individual club. This gives an overview of the types of teams difference clubs produce, what strength their A teams tends to be at, and whether the club fields teams at every age.
The red line is the median strength of the top teams at age in Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC. The are the four largest and strongest clubs in Washington and consistently produce a top 4 team across most every age. The dotted-red line is a strength -2 below the top team (or -200 on new scaling). The predicted goal ratio in a match-up between a team on the red line and one on the dotted red line is 4, so 4-1 or 8-2. So the red line team is heavily expected to win, but it would still be a somewhat competitive game. The green line is the median across all the top teams from every select club in Washington, except those top 4.
B02 at far left, B95 at far right.
1pt difference is about the length of this hyphen - on this graph. Yes, small.
Being 1 full pt stronger = scoring 2x as rapidly so is a significant advantage. So being on the green line versus slightly above it indicates a big difference in strength. The red line teams score about 80-100x more rapidly than the green line teams...
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
RCL D1 regional distribution
Here I look at the regional distribution of boys teams in the RCL D1 for fall 2013. The RCL D1 is the strongest level of play in WA for all age groups except B97. RCL is a closed league (closed to the clubs shown in the graphs). However, except for B97, most WA teams at this level are playing in this league (the largest soccer clubs in WA are in the RCL so this is not surprising).
BU11-14
RCL is a state-wide league, but the top division in BU11-14 (32 teams) has about the lowest travel of any league/division. Almost all teams (29 of 32) come from the SE Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area: Redmond, Seattle, Preston, Woodinville, Tukwila, and Tacoma. The longest distance, Woodinville-Tacoma is 50miles (ca 1 hr) and most games would involve under 30min of travel. In the fall 2013 season, there were no teams from E WA, W side of Puget Sound or the Portland Metro area in RCL D1. There was 1 team from N WA (Bellingham) and 2 from the N Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area (Everett area).
What is driving these patterns? The most obvious is population size. If we look at county size versus # of HS boys teams in the RCL D1, we see see a strong relationship.
A couple things jump out:
BU11-14
RCL is a state-wide league, but the top division in BU11-14 (32 teams) has about the lowest travel of any league/division. Almost all teams (29 of 32) come from the SE Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area: Redmond, Seattle, Preston, Woodinville, Tukwila, and Tacoma. The longest distance, Woodinville-Tacoma is 50miles (ca 1 hr) and most games would involve under 30min of travel. In the fall 2013 season, there were no teams from E WA, W side of Puget Sound or the Portland Metro area in RCL D1. There was 1 team from N WA (Bellingham) and 2 from the N Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area (Everett area).
BU15-18
At the HS age, BU15-18 (again 32 teams) the regional distribution of teams is more diverse and more "state-wide". In fall 2013, most teams
(21 of 32) still came from the SE Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area. But N WA (Bellingham) had a team at 3 of the 4 age groups, and N Seattle Metro area (Everett) at least 1 team at each age group although these teams were not in the same club. There are 3 N Seattle Metro area RCL clubs: NWN, Rush and Snohomish. At U15, Rush had a team in D1, at U16 Snohomish, at U17 both Snohomish and Rush, and at U18 NWN. This suggests that the N Seattle Metro area only has sufficient players to support 1 D1 team at the HS age. This might explain why there are no D1 N Seattle Metro teams at BU11-14 as significant cross-club player-migration is needed to form a D1 team and this doesn't happen until HS age.
The Bellingham Metro area, despite being only the 5th largest metro area in the state, is well-represented in the HS RCL D1 with teams at 3 of the 4 ages. The 4th largest metro area in WA is the Tri-Cities and is again is about 2x the size of the Bellingham metro area, but had only 2 teams in D1. The N Portland Metro area (WA side) is the 3rd largest metro area and
also about 2x as big as Bellingham, but is even less represented in RCL
D1 at the HS age (1 team). The second largest metro area in WA, the Spokane metro area, has no teams in the RCL D1.
What is driving these patterns? The most obvious is population size. If we look at county size versus # of HS boys teams in the RCL D1, we see see a strong relationship.
- King Co: Crossfire, SU, Eastside, PacNW, FCA
- Snohomish: Snohomish United, NWN, WA Rush
- Pierce: WPFC, FWFC, Harbor, Slammers
- Spokane: SSC
- Clark+Skamania: WA Timbers
- Tri-Cities (Benton+Franklin)+Yakima: Three Rivers and Three Rivers Yakima
- Whatcom+Skagit: Whatcom Rangers
- Kitsap+Mason: Westound
- #s from here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_statistical_areas
A couple things jump out:
- Whatcom Rangers appears to over-produce RCL D1 teams relative to what you would expect given the population size of Whatcom+Skagit counties. Both the Whatcom region has PSPL "competitors" but not at the RCL D1 level.
- Spokane metro area has 2-3 fewer RCL D1 teams than expected. However Spokane does have 3 HS teams at RCL D1 strengths, but they do not play in the RCL D1 (2 in PSPL D1 and 1 in RCL D2).
First, it looks like the size of the player pool has a much bigger effect at the younger ages. There seems to be a minimum population size of about 500,000 before a region is able to produce a team strong enough to compete in the RCL D1.
HOWEVER, there RCL is promotion-relegation and it may be that there is a initial selection bias at U11 towards the King County clubs and that this takes a few seasons to work its way out. Next up, I want to repeat this but with my team strength estimates which won't have this initial selection bias.
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Where WA boys U11-14 play select soccer
I took all the teams BU11-14 and divided them into E WA vs W WA. There are 546 boys teams in the WA select soccer leagues.
Where W WA plays
65% of W WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USYS leagues: PML, DIII, NPSL, and RCL. The main leagues are the NPSL and RCL. The former is open to all USYS leagues while the latter is a closed league with only some USYS clubs sanctioned as "RCL" clubs. The strongest teams in the state play in RCL division 1 (15 out of 16) and come from almost exclusively four western WA clubs: Seattle United, Eastside, WPFC, and Crossfire Premier (15 out of 16 with the 16th being another W WA club). PML, DIII, and NPSL are regional leagues serving respectively Vancouver/Portland region, south Puget Sound, and north Puget Sound. Outside of RCL division 1, the strength of competition in the leagues overlaps considerably. 35% of W WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USCS leagues: PSPL and OPL. OPL serves the Vancouver area WA teams (and Oregon) and PSPL is a state-wide league. However, approx 20% of W WA teams in the PSPL are in the Copa division which is restricted to western WA.
Where E WA plays
In contrast to W WA, only 30% of boys U11-14 teams play in the USYS leagues: DIV and RCL. 70% of E WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USCS leagues: PSPL and PSPL-inland. PSPL is the state-wide league and PSPL-inland is restricted to eastern WA teams. The strongest eastern WA teams generally (9 out of the top 16) play in the PSPL league, with the older ages more often in the WSPL (state-wide) and younger strong teams often found in the PSPL-inland league. 5 out of the top 16 eastern WA teams play in the RCL and 2 in the DIV league.
Where W WA plays
65% of W WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USYS leagues: PML, DIII, NPSL, and RCL. The main leagues are the NPSL and RCL. The former is open to all USYS leagues while the latter is a closed league with only some USYS clubs sanctioned as "RCL" clubs. The strongest teams in the state play in RCL division 1 (15 out of 16) and come from almost exclusively four western WA clubs: Seattle United, Eastside, WPFC, and Crossfire Premier (15 out of 16 with the 16th being another W WA club). PML, DIII, and NPSL are regional leagues serving respectively Vancouver/Portland region, south Puget Sound, and north Puget Sound. Outside of RCL division 1, the strength of competition in the leagues overlaps considerably. 35% of W WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USCS leagues: PSPL and OPL. OPL serves the Vancouver area WA teams (and Oregon) and PSPL is a state-wide league. However, approx 20% of W WA teams in the PSPL are in the Copa division which is restricted to western WA.
Where E WA plays
In contrast to W WA, only 30% of boys U11-14 teams play in the USYS leagues: DIV and RCL. 70% of E WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USCS leagues: PSPL and PSPL-inland. PSPL is the state-wide league and PSPL-inland is restricted to eastern WA teams. The strongest eastern WA teams generally (9 out of the top 16) play in the PSPL league, with the older ages more often in the WSPL (state-wide) and younger strong teams often found in the PSPL-inland league. 5 out of the top 16 eastern WA teams play in the RCL and 2 in the DIV league.
Sunday, January 12, 2014
WA B00 Founders Cup Bracket predictions
B00 Founders Cup
Individual games predictions
Bracket finishing predictions
Individual games predictions
Bracket finishing predictions
Founders Cup Bracket A
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Select Buckley B00 2 30 47 21 2nd
SGESC Fusion Blue B00 6 56 30 8 3rd
Washington Timbers Ruby B00 0 6 23 71 4th
Seattle United NE Blue B00 92 7 1 0 1st
Founders Cup Bracket B
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United Shoreline Blue B00 26 69 4 0 2nd
Crossfire Select Button B00 74 26 1 0 1st
ISC Arsenal Red B00 0 0 17 83 4th
Whatcom Rangers White B00 0 5 78 17 3rd
Founders Cup Bracket C
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Highline Select Panthers B00 13 26 42 19 1st
Seattle United S Black B00 55 30 13 2 3rd
Washington Timbers Burgundy B00 1 6 21 72 4th
Crossfire Select Greenwalt B00 31 38 24 7 2nd
Founders Cup Bracket D
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Impact FC Black B00 6 69 25 0 1st
Kent United White B00 0 25 74 1 3rd
Seattle United S Blue B00 93 7 0 0 2nd
Whatcom Rangers Black B00 0 0 1 98 4th
Founders Cup Bracket E
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
BYSC Select Cochran B00 4 46 39 10 4th
Seattle United W Blue B00 3 43 42 12 2nd
Newport FC Cosmos B00 0 5 18 78 3rd
3 Rivers Yakima Borges B00 93 6 1 0 1st
Founders Cup Bracket F
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
SGESC Fusion Red B00 0 0 4 16 80 4th
Storm King B00 52 42 5 1 0 2nd
Mercer Island FC Gunners B00 1 6 43 40 10 5th
Seattle United W White B00 1 6 41 42 11 3rd
Crossfire Select Merrick B00 46 46 7 1 0 1st
Founders Cup Bracket G
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
NSC Dynamo B00 5 29 40 27 0 3rd
UPSC Lightning B00 12 45 29 14 0 2nd
FC Edmonds Fury B00 82 14 3 1 0 1st
Washington Timbers Scarlet B00 0 0 0 1 99 5th
Lake Hills Fury B00 1 12 28 57 1 4th
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
2013 Strength Ratings posted to Blog
Updated DRAFT 2013 boys ratings
9-21-2013
The tabs on the blog now point to the 2013 ranks. Soon I will add links to the archived 2012 ranks. I don't have the league table done yet nor column re what fall league the team is in.
I've entered the first 1-2 league games. Leagues included are RCL, PSPL, OPL, NPSL, DIII, DVI, and PML.
Email corrections and additions to lastplanetranking@gmail.com.
Some things to keep in mind for the 2013 ratings:
* I have changed the scaling for teams. All teams are scaled against the median U13 team. The median U13 team is set to a strength of 800. This makes the ratings look a little more like chess ratings. 2000 is a very strong HS team and the top teams won't hit this till U17-18.
* Check out the FAQ on the blog to understand the meaning of the strength rating. This is a predictive model and the DIFFERENCE in strength ratings between 2 teams gives you a prediction of the RATIO of the goals scored. If rescaled the ratings, so now a difference of 100 is a prediction that the ratio of goals scored will be 2 (so a 2:1 or 4:2 or 8:4 score, which of those depends on the strength-attack characteristics of the teams). A difference of 200 is a prediction that the ratio of goals scored will be 4 (so 4:1 or 8:2 etc score).
* The ratings are based on 13 months of matches but the ratings are weighted (heavily) towards the more recent 2-3 months of games. On the pdf, you can see how a team changed after try-outs (or after key players added or dropped).
* The "All-xx" tables you see have teams that are from 2012-2013 and don't exist anymore, but the state tables only have teams that played a game in the last 3 months.
* Only teams with 7+ games are listed on the main tables. You can see all teams on the All_Bxx_ranks.html file. Don't make much of the rating of a team with only 3-5 games.
* I have the B02s listed to help me figure out 02 teams that played up in a tourney but didn't list their age. I won't be rating the B02s past this stage. I start with U12s when games are 11v11.
* I have B94s listed, but I won't include those either in the final.
* Oregon ratings will be sketchy until the fall league starts. There were many name changes and reorganization of teams, so more data is needed to get these sorted out.
--LP
9-21-2013
The tabs on the blog now point to the 2013 ranks. Soon I will add links to the archived 2012 ranks. I don't have the league table done yet nor column re what fall league the team is in.
I've entered the first 1-2 league games. Leagues included are RCL, PSPL, OPL, NPSL, DIII, DVI, and PML.
Email corrections and additions to lastplanetranking@gmail.com.
Some things to keep in mind for the 2013 ratings:
* I have changed the scaling for teams. All teams are scaled against the median U13 team. The median U13 team is set to a strength of 800. This makes the ratings look a little more like chess ratings. 2000 is a very strong HS team and the top teams won't hit this till U17-18.
* Check out the FAQ on the blog to understand the meaning of the strength rating. This is a predictive model and the DIFFERENCE in strength ratings between 2 teams gives you a prediction of the RATIO of the goals scored. If rescaled the ratings, so now a difference of 100 is a prediction that the ratio of goals scored will be 2 (so a 2:1 or 4:2 or 8:4 score, which of those depends on the strength-attack characteristics of the teams). A difference of 200 is a prediction that the ratio of goals scored will be 4 (so 4:1 or 8:2 etc score).
* The ratings are based on 13 months of matches but the ratings are weighted (heavily) towards the more recent 2-3 months of games. On the pdf, you can see how a team changed after try-outs (or after key players added or dropped).
* The "All-xx" tables you see have teams that are from 2012-2013 and don't exist anymore, but the state tables only have teams that played a game in the last 3 months.
* Only teams with 7+ games are listed on the main tables. You can see all teams on the All_Bxx_ranks.html file. Don't make much of the rating of a team with only 3-5 games.
* I have the B02s listed to help me figure out 02 teams that played up in a tourney but didn't list their age. I won't be rating the B02s past this stage. I start with U12s when games are 11v11.
* I have B94s listed, but I won't include those either in the final.
* Oregon ratings will be sketchy until the fall league starts. There were many name changes and reorganization of teams, so more data is needed to get these sorted out.
--LP
Saturday, April 27, 2013
WA B00 Challenge Cup predictions
Scroll down for Division 2
B00 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 WSYSA schedule and scores
Bracket predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket A
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastside FC White B00 (#11) 43 32 18 8
Highline Premier Blue B00 (#14) 41 34 19 7
WPFC White B00 (#21) 13 24 37 26
FC Alliance B B00 (#25) 4 11 26 60
WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket B
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United Tango B00 (#8) 90 10 0 0
Nortac Colibri B00 (#20) 9 76 13 2
Whatcom Rangers Gold B00 (#36) 0 12 63 24
WSA Rangers B00 (#50) 0 3 24 74
B00 WA Challenge Cup Div 2 WSYSA schedule and scores
Finals prediction
BIFC Blue B00 vs Eastside FC Blue B00, HW 67%, AW 15%, T 18%, pred score 2.4-1.1
Semis predictions
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 BIFC Blue B00 vs Seattle United Samba B00, HW 37%, AW 39%, T 24%, pred score 1.5-1.5
04/27/2013 Eastside FC Blue B00 vs PacNW Blue B00, HW 55%, AW 21%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1
Bracket predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket A
1st 2nd 3rd 4th fall league
BIFC Blue B00 (#26) 46 37 13 4 NPSL 1
3 Rivers Black B00 (#23) 46 36 14 4 RCL 3
Westsound FC Red B00 (#44) 6 18 42 34 RCL 2
Crossfire Premier C B00 (#55) 2 9 30 58 RCL 3
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket B
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastside FC Blue B00 (#46) 67 21 9 3 RCL 3
FWFC Blue B00 (#63) 16 34 29 22 RCL 3
Harbor Premier Select B00 (#69) 8 24 32 36 RCL 3
Blackhills FC Black B00 (#73) 8 22 30 40 RCL 4
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket C
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United Samba B00 (#29) 92 7 1 0 RCL 3
PacNW Blue B00 (#66) 6 56 38 0 RCL 3
WPFC Navy B00 (#80) 2 37 60 1 RCL 4
Crossfire Premier D B00 (#127) 0 0 2 98 RCL 4
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket D
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Slammers Orange B00 (#82) 61 25 11 3 RCL 4
WA Rush Swoosh B00 (#98) 18 34 34 14 RCL 4
Snohomish United Red B00 (#100) 18 33 33 16 RCL 4
Eastside FC Grey B00 (#115) 2 8 22 67 RCL 4
B00 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 WSYSA schedule and scores
Bracket predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket A
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastside FC White B00 (#11) 43 32 18 8
Highline Premier Blue B00 (#14) 41 34 19 7
WPFC White B00 (#21) 13 24 37 26
FC Alliance B B00 (#25) 4 11 26 60
WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket B
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United Tango B00 (#8) 90 10 0 0
Nortac Colibri B00 (#20) 9 76 13 2
Whatcom Rangers Gold B00 (#36) 0 12 63 24
WSA Rangers B00 (#50) 0 3 24 74
B00 WA Challenge Cup Div 2 WSYSA schedule and scores
Finals prediction
BIFC Blue B00 vs Eastside FC Blue B00, HW 67%, AW 15%, T 18%, pred score 2.4-1.1
Semis predictions
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 BIFC Blue B00 vs Seattle United Samba B00, HW 37%, AW 39%, T 24%, pred score 1.5-1.5
04/27/2013 Eastside FC Blue B00 vs PacNW Blue B00, HW 55%, AW 21%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1
Bracket predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket A
1st 2nd 3rd 4th fall league
BIFC Blue B00 (#26) 46 37 13 4 NPSL 1
3 Rivers Black B00 (#23) 46 36 14 4 RCL 3
Westsound FC Red B00 (#44) 6 18 42 34 RCL 2
Crossfire Premier C B00 (#55) 2 9 30 58 RCL 3
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket B
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastside FC Blue B00 (#46) 67 21 9 3 RCL 3
FWFC Blue B00 (#63) 16 34 29 22 RCL 3
Harbor Premier Select B00 (#69) 8 24 32 36 RCL 3
Blackhills FC Black B00 (#73) 8 22 30 40 RCL 4
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket C
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United Samba B00 (#29) 92 7 1 0 RCL 3
PacNW Blue B00 (#66) 6 56 38 0 RCL 3
WPFC Navy B00 (#80) 2 37 60 1 RCL 4
Crossfire Premier D B00 (#127) 0 0 2 98 RCL 4
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket D
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Slammers Orange B00 (#82) 61 25 11 3 RCL 4
WA Rush Swoosh B00 (#98) 18 34 34 14 RCL 4
Snohomish United Red B00 (#100) 18 33 33 16 RCL 4
Eastside FC Grey B00 (#115) 2 8 22 67 RCL 4
Friday, April 26, 2013
B00 WA Cup Quarter-, Semi- and Finals predictions
PSPL schedule and scores
B00 WA Cup GOLD Semi finals
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 Cascade FC Green B00 vs Central WA SA Navy B00, HW 15%, AW 68%, T 17%, pred score 1.1-2.5
04/27/2013 ISC Gunners A B00 vs Normandy Park FC White B00, HW 66%, AW 13%, T 21%, pred score 1.8-0.7
B00 WA Cup SILVER Semi finals
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 KVJSA Ellensburg FC B00 vs CB United B00, HW 36%, AW 42%, T 22%, pred score 1.7-1.8
04/27/2013 RSA Elite Diamondbacks B00 vs MVP Rapids Navy B00, HW 74%, AW 11%, T 15%, pred score 2.6-0.9
B00 WA Cup GOLD Quarter finals
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 Cobra Deportivo Teca B00 vs Cascade FC Green B00, HW 45%, AW 25%, T 30%, pred score 1.2-0.8 (1-3)
04/27/2013 ISC Gunners A B00 vs Sting SC Manchester B00, HW 96%, AW 1%, T 3%, pred score 4.5-0.4 (2-0)
04/27/2013 Nortac Cosmos B00 vs Normandy Park FC White B00, HW 7%, AW 83%, T 10%, pred score 1-3.5 (1-2)
04/27/2013 Tynecastle FC Outliers B00 vs Central WA SA Navy B00, HW 12%, AW 76%, T 12%, pred score 1.8-4 (1-2)
B00 WA Cup SILVER Quarter finals
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 ASE Stephanson B00 vs MVP Rapids Navy B00, HW 16%, AW 59%, T 25%, pred score 0.7-1.6 (2-3)
04/27/2013 FC Salmon Creek Juventus B00 vs RSA Elite Diamondbacks B00, HW 3%, AW 90%, T 7%, pred score 0.7-3.9
04/27/2013 Fuerza FC Academy B00 vs CB United B00, HW 3%, AW 91%, T 6%, pred score 0.9-4.3
04/27/2013 MRFC Blue B00 vs KVJSA Ellensburg FC B00, HW 30%, AW 47%, T 24%, pred score 1.3-1.7 (0-3)
Sunday, April 7, 2013
B00 OR OPL State Cup Predictions
April 22, 2013: Updated with actual results
April 26, 2013: Updated with quarter final predictions
April 26, 2013: Updated with quarter final predictions
OPL schedule and scores
Semi finals predictions
B00 OPL Cup semis
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/28/2013 FC Portland Navy B00 vs Eastside Timbers Red B00, HW 89%, AW 4%, T 6%, pred score 4.4-1.1
04/28/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B00 vs WAFC Real Madrid B00, HW 40%, AW 38%, T 22%, pred score 1.8-1.8
Quarter finals predictions
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013 --------------------------------------------- 04/27/2013 Eastside Timbers Red B00 vs Oregon Rush Nike B00, HW 68%, AW 15%, T 17%, pred score 2.7-1.2 04/27/2013 FC Portland Navy B00 vs Southside SC Azzuri B00, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 10%, pred score 3.3-0.8 04/27/2013 WAFC Real Madrid B00 vs PCU Red B00, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 9%, pred score 3.4-0.8 04/27/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B00 vs BSC Portland Black B00, HW 68%, AW 15%, T 17%, pred score 2.6-1.2
Prelims predictions
Here's my model's predictions based on 10,000 simulated prelim rounds. Numbers in the table are percent of simulations with that place result.
Flight A
1st 2nd 3rd
FC Portland Navy B00 98 2 0 1st 6 pts, GD 7
PCU Red B00 2 87 12 2nd 3 pts, GD 0
EMFC Rovers Blue B00 0 11 88
Flight B
1st 2nd 3rd
WAFC Real Madrid B00 96 4 0 1st 6pts, GD 7
Oregon Rush Nike B00 3 70 26 2nd 3pts, GD 2
WAFC Barca B00 0 26 74
Flight C
1st 2nd 3rd
Westside Timbers Copa B00 81 18 1 1st 6pts, GD 11
Southside SC Azzuri B00 19 74 8 2nd 3pts, GD -1
FC West Halcones B00 0 8 92
Flight D
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
BSC Portland Black B00 57 32 9 2 2nd 4 pts, GD 0
Eastside Timbers Red B00 36 45 16 3 1st 5 pts, GD 3
LASC Halcones B00 6 18 51 24
Westside Timbers Mundial B00 1 5 24 71
Saturday, April 6, 2013
WA Cup Puget Sound Prelim Predictions (U12, U13, U14)
If the E WA and W WA prelim rounds equal numbers of teams, then the top 4 teams from the preliminary rounds go to the Gold semi-final round and the next 4 go to the Silver semi-final round. However because the E WA and W WA numbers are not even, it won't be quite like that. Nonetheless, PSPL hasn't posted the #s yet. But nonetheless, assuming 4 teams go on to Gold, I marked my predictions for which teams those will be. In some cases, a few teams were tied so I marked those lighter yellow. I marked 'dark horses' green. Most of the rest of the teams will make it on to the Silver round, but we won't know how many won't make it past the first weekend until PSPL posts the #s.
Predicted top 4 marked Gold (Yellow) and dark horses marked green for top 4.
PSPL schedule webpage
Predicted top 4 marked Gold (Yellow) and dark horses marked green for top 4.
PSPL schedule webpage
WA Cup GS U12 (individual game predictions)
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Cascade FC Green B00 13 22 32 23 10 1 0 0 0 0
ISC Gunners A B00 48 30 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
Normandy Park FC White B00 35 33 19 10 4 0 0 0 0 0
Tynecastle FC Outliers B00 4 13 29 42 7 3 0 0 0 0
Nortac Cosmos B00 0 0 1 6 18 62 10 2 0 0
RSA Elite Diamondbacks B00 0 1 4 13 60 21 1 0 0 0
FC Salmon Creek Juventus B00 0 0 0 0 0 1 17 29 33 21
Fuerza FC Academy B00 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 15 25 55
MRFC Blue B00 0 0 0 0 0 8 42 24 16 9
MVP Rapids Navy B00 0 0 0 0 0 4 26 29 26 15
WA Cup GS U13
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Cobra Aguilitas B99 69 19 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
NW United Powell B99 5 18 28 25 12 6 3 1 1 0
San Carlos Bombers B99 19 42 23 11 3 1 0 0 0 0
Tacoma United Manchester B99 5 17 26 26 11 7 4 2 1 0
Kent United Green B99 1 2 7 15 30 23 11 7 4 2
RSA Elite B99 0 2 5 11 22 25 16 10 6 2
Emerald City FC Green B99 0 0 1 3 6 11 18 23 22 18
MVP Rapids Navy B99 0 0 0 2 4 8 16 20 26 25
Pumas UNAM Seattle B99 0 0 0 1 2 4 10 16 26 42
WPFC Fury Black B99 0 1 2 4 9 14 23 21 15 11
B98 WA Cup GS
WA Cup GS U14
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
NW United Struk B98 10 62 18 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Seattle Celtic FC A B98 0 0 0 1 1 6 46 20 10 10 3 1 0
Tacoma United Chelsea B98 87 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Emerald City FC Green B98 1 6 19 20 23 21 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
ISC Gunners A B98 1 8 23 22 23 17 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Kajumulo FC Tembo B98 0 0 0 1 2 6 14 24 26 13 8 4 1
MRFC Blue B98 1 7 19 24 21 19 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
MVP Rapids Navy B98 0 0 0 1 3 8 17 29 28 6 3 2 1
WPFC Fury Black B98 1 6 18 23 24 20 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
MRFC White B98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 11 16 26 41
Pumas UNAM B98 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 21 26 23 17
RSA Elite B98 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 12 19 29 32
WPFC Fury Navy B98 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 14 25 24 15 8
B99 WA Cup Bronze
WA Cup Bronze U13
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
Cascade FC B99 0 4 20 31 25 19
FC Crush Classic B99 0 1 5 12 25 57
MRFC Blue B99 33 47 13 5 1 0
MVP Rapids White B99 2 12 34 26 18 9
Tacoma United Chelsea B99 0 5 23 25 31 15
Legacy FC Maroon B99 64 31 4 1 0 0
Monday, April 1, 2013
Team strength by age and club in WA
4-4-2013. Updated to include B96 (U16)
This post is for 2012-2013. Click here to see the 2013-2014 Boys analysis and here to see the 2013-2014 Girls analysis
I was interested in the pattern of team strength across BU12 to BU16 across all clubs in Washington. Which clubs are able to consistently field the strongest teams across multiple ages? Are some clubs able to do this consistently across ages or did most clubs have stronger and weaker age groups? Are RCL clubs able to field stronger A teams on average?
To look at these questions, I took all the WA clubs that have a team at least 4 ages from BU12 to BU16 and computed the maximum "B00 strength" at that age for the club. "B00 strength" means that each age was scaled to the median strength of WA-OR B00 teams. That put all ages on the same scale. "maximum strength at that age for club" means that I took the maximum strength of all teams a club had at a particular age. For example Crossfire Premier has 4 B00 teams, and I took the maximum of those teams' strengths. For Crossfire Premier, this is simply the A team strength, but other clubs do not name their A, B, C teams consistently so I just took the maximum the teams a club has at a particular age.
There are 37 clubs in WA that have a select team at each age BU12 to BU16. This is out of 109 WA clubs in my database. This plot shows all the B00 strengths for these 37 clubs. Each line is a different club. There are three clubs that stand out in being able to field an exceptionally strong team at each age BU12 to BU15 and form the outer edge of the strength by age plot: Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Seattle United. Eastside FC is a close 4th, with a couple slightly weaker age years (U13 and U14). At U16, Crossfire, WPFC and Eastside form the outer edge of the plot, but SU has an unusually weak A team. No other clubs had more than two teams between BU12-15 that were within 2 points of the red top lines below. The green line in the graph is the median strength at age across all clubs.
Next I looked at each club individually to see if there were any patterns between, say, RCL and non-RCL teams in terms of strength of teams across ages. For this I looked at the strength of the top team in RCL versus non-RCL clubs. I plotted Crossfire Premier, WPFC, Seattle United and Eastside FC separately since they were outliers even among the RCL clubs. The boxplot below shows the results with the box enclosing the middle 50% of clubs at each age and the whiskers showing the full range of strengths. I also added the strengths of the best teams from smaller clubs that do not have a team at each age. What we see is that the best RCL teams are usually better than the best non-RCL teams, but that there is quite a lot of overlap---the whiskers on the boxplots of the non-RCL clubs overlap the boxes for the RCL clubs. The green line is the median across all clubs (none excluded so same green line as in plot above).
Which clubs have a top team with a strength above the median "best-team" line (green line) at each age BU12 to BU15?
Ah, those are all big clubs. Ok, let's set the bar a bit lower. Which clubs field a team with a strength above -1 plus the median "best-team" line (green line) at each age? So their strongest team has to be no more that 1 point below the median "best-team" so could have a competitive game with that median team. I'll divide this into RCL and non-RCL. I define "RCL" as having a team that plays in the spring RCL, so clubs that played in the fall RCL via the Open Cup are non-RCL in my grouping.
RCL (13 out of 21 RCL clubs do)
Non-RCL (5 out of 27 non-RCL bigger clubs do)
Next question was what clubs can field teams that can compete with the top RCL teams? Here "compete with" was defined as "having a strength within 2 points of the median of the 4 top clubs". The 4 top clubs are Crossfire Premier, Eastside FC, Seattle United, and WPFC. Although Eastside FC has some "weaker" ages, those "weaker" ages are still within 2 points of the other top clubs. In the boxplot above, this median "exceptionally strong" team was the median of the red boxes.
Which clubs can field two teams within 2 points of the "exceptionally strong" teams? Three clubs other than the top 4 can field two teams within 2 strength points of the top: "Issaquah SC", "FC Alliance" and "PacNW". No clubs except the top 4 clubs can field 3 teams within 2 strength points of the top.
Which clubs can field at least ONE team within 2 strength points of the top? For this I included the smaller non-RCL clubs.
Non-RCL clubs with team within 2 strength points of the top. Number of ages fielded noted.
RCL clubs with team within 2 strength points of the top
This result is especially interesting to me. 15 clubs (besides the top 4) can field 1-2 teams within 2 strengths points of the top. 8 are RCL and 7 are non-RCL, and of those 7 non-RCL clubs, 2 are small clubs that do not field a team at each age.
Finally, here are all the individual plots for clubs with a team at least 4 age between BU12-16. The black line is the max strength of the club's teams at a particular age. The red line is the median strength for Crossfire Premier, WPFC and Seattle United. The dotted red line is -2 below that, so a team above that dotted red line could play a game with the red line and not be totally gutted by more than a GD of 4. Franklin Pierce SC = WPFC Fury.
This post is for 2012-2013. Click here to see the 2013-2014 Boys analysis and here to see the 2013-2014 Girls analysis
I was interested in the pattern of team strength across BU12 to BU16 across all clubs in Washington. Which clubs are able to consistently field the strongest teams across multiple ages? Are some clubs able to do this consistently across ages or did most clubs have stronger and weaker age groups? Are RCL clubs able to field stronger A teams on average?
To look at these questions, I took all the WA clubs that have a team at least 4 ages from BU12 to BU16 and computed the maximum "B00 strength" at that age for the club. "B00 strength" means that each age was scaled to the median strength of WA-OR B00 teams. That put all ages on the same scale. "maximum strength at that age for club" means that I took the maximum strength of all teams a club had at a particular age. For example Crossfire Premier has 4 B00 teams, and I took the maximum of those teams' strengths. For Crossfire Premier, this is simply the A team strength, but other clubs do not name their A, B, C teams consistently so I just took the maximum the teams a club has at a particular age.
There are 37 clubs in WA that have a select team at each age BU12 to BU16. This is out of 109 WA clubs in my database. This plot shows all the B00 strengths for these 37 clubs. Each line is a different club. There are three clubs that stand out in being able to field an exceptionally strong team at each age BU12 to BU15 and form the outer edge of the strength by age plot: Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Seattle United. Eastside FC is a close 4th, with a couple slightly weaker age years (U13 and U14). At U16, Crossfire, WPFC and Eastside form the outer edge of the plot, but SU has an unusually weak A team. No other clubs had more than two teams between BU12-15 that were within 2 points of the red top lines below. The green line in the graph is the median strength at age across all clubs.
Comment #1: I would assume this result is driven by the size of the player pool. Crossfire Premier fields 4-5 teams at each age. Seattle United has 2-3 full-year teams and 6-8 part-year (aka select) teams at each age. WPFC fields 2 full-year teams and is associated with a very strong part-year (aka select) club, WPFC Fury. However I'm not sure how seamless the player movement is between WPFC and WPFC Fury. Clearly though, WPFC is not hindered by a limited player pool. Eastside FC fields fewer teams at each age (generally 1-2 less than Crossfire) and is not integrated with a select club. This slightly smaller player pool may account for the greater fluctuation in strength across ages for Eastside FC.
Comment #2: I'm slowly collecting match data on the top west-coast teams in order to pencil in where the top of this curve is for the west-coast boys. My sense right now is that the top CA teams are 2 strength points above the top WA teams. Maybe 1.5 but data points to a higher difference.
Comment #2: I'm slowly collecting match data on the top west-coast teams in order to pencil in where the top of this curve is for the west-coast boys. My sense right now is that the top CA teams are 2 strength points above the top WA teams. Maybe 1.5 but data points to a higher difference.
Next I looked at each club individually to see if there were any patterns between, say, RCL and non-RCL teams in terms of strength of teams across ages. For this I looked at the strength of the top team in RCL versus non-RCL clubs. I plotted Crossfire Premier, WPFC, Seattle United and Eastside FC separately since they were outliers even among the RCL clubs. The boxplot below shows the results with the box enclosing the middle 50% of clubs at each age and the whiskers showing the full range of strengths. I also added the strengths of the best teams from smaller clubs that do not have a team at each age. What we see is that the best RCL teams are usually better than the best non-RCL teams, but that there is quite a lot of overlap---the whiskers on the boxplots of the non-RCL clubs overlap the boxes for the RCL clubs. The green line is the median across all clubs (none excluded so same green line as in plot above).
[1] "3 Rivers SC" "Crossfire Premier SC" "Eastside FC" [4] "NW Nationals" "Pacific Northwest SC" "Seattle United" [7] "Snohomish United SC" "Spokane SC Shadow" "Washington Premier FC"
Ah, those are all big clubs. Ok, let's set the bar a bit lower. Which clubs field a team with a strength above -1 plus the median "best-team" line (green line) at each age? So their strongest team has to be no more that 1 point below the median "best-team" so could have a competitive game with that median team. I'll divide this into RCL and non-RCL. I define "RCL" as having a team that plays in the spring RCL, so clubs that played in the fall RCL via the Open Cup are non-RCL in my grouping.
RCL (13 out of 21 RCL clubs do)
[1] "3 Rivers SC" "Crossfire Premier SC" "Eastside FC" [4] "Federal Way FC" "Highline Premier FC" "NW Nationals" [7] "Pacific Northwest SC" "Seattle United" "Snohomish United" [10] "Spokane SC Shadow" "Washington Rush SC" "Whatcom FC Rangers" [13] "Washington Premier FC"
Non-RCL (5 out of 27 non-RCL bigger clubs do)
[1] "Cobra Premier Soccer" "FC Spokane" "Franklin Pierce SC (WPFC Fury)" [4] "Issaquah SC" "Kent United"
Next question was what clubs can field teams that can compete with the top RCL teams? Here "compete with" was defined as "having a strength within 2 points of the median of the 4 top clubs". The 4 top clubs are Crossfire Premier, Eastside FC, Seattle United, and WPFC. Although Eastside FC has some "weaker" ages, those "weaker" ages are still within 2 points of the other top clubs. In the boxplot above, this median "exceptionally strong" team was the median of the red boxes.
Which clubs can field two teams within 2 points of the "exceptionally strong" teams? Three clubs other than the top 4 can field two teams within 2 strength points of the top: "Issaquah SC", "FC Alliance" and "PacNW". No clubs except the top 4 clubs can field 3 teams within 2 strength points of the top.
Which clubs can field at least ONE team within 2 strength points of the top? For this I included the smaller non-RCL clubs.
Non-RCL clubs with team within 2 strength points of the top. Number of ages fielded noted.
"Central WA Soccer Academy (1 age)" "Cobra Premier Soccer (4 ages)" "Emerald City FC (3 ages)" "FC Spokane (4 ages)" "Franklin Pierce SC (WPFC Fury) (4 ages)" "Issaquah SC (4 ages)" "Pacific FC (4 ages)"
RCL clubs with team within 2 strength points of the top
"3 Rivers SC" "FC Alliance" "Highline Premier FC" "NW Nationals" "PacNW" "Snohomish United" "WA Rush SC" "Whatcom FC Rangers"
This result is especially interesting to me. 15 clubs (besides the top 4) can field 1-2 teams within 2 strengths points of the top. 8 are RCL and 7 are non-RCL, and of those 7 non-RCL clubs, 2 are small clubs that do not field a team at each age.
Finally, here are all the individual plots for clubs with a team at least 4 age between BU12-16. The black line is the max strength of the club's teams at a particular age. The red line is the median strength for Crossfire Premier, WPFC and Seattle United. The dotted red line is -2 below that, so a team above that dotted red line could play a game with the red line and not be totally gutted by more than a GD of 4. Franklin Pierce SC = WPFC Fury.
B00 at far left, B96 at far right.
1pt difference is about the length of this hyphen - on this graph. Yes, small.
Being 1 full pt stronger = scoring 2x as rapidly so is a significant advantage. So being on the green line versus slightly above it indicates a big difference in strength. The red line teams score about 80-100x more rapidly than the green line teams....
Finally here is a table with B00 team strengths. The median strong 4 clubs is for reference:
med.strong
B00 B99 B98 B97
6.155 8.410 11.290 12.545
club B00 B99 B98 B97
1 3 Rivers SC 2.10 5.33 7.02 10.83
2 Academy of Soccer Excellence -2.27 5.58 NA NA
3 Avanti United FC -2.52 NA NA 0.52
4 Bainbridge Island FC 2.36 3.51 5.38 8.02
5 Blackhills FC -0.37 4.82 9.01 10.27
7 Breakers SC 0.08 4.35 6.09 8.16
8 Cascade FC 2.95 0.73 4.80 8.20
9 Columbia Basin United FC -0.47 5.44 NA 4.99
10 Columbia Basin Youth SA -3.73 2.11 NA NA
11 Central WA Soccer Academy 4.57 NA NA NA
12 Cheney Storm FC -1.10 0.27 4.96 NA
13 Chehalis Youth SC NA NA NA 5.54
14 Central Kitsap SC NA 1.02 NA 4.10
15 Cobra Premier Soccer 3.26 7.54 6.00 9.98
16 Crossfire Premier SC 6.67 8.73 10.65 12.44
17 Crossfire Select SC 1.92 3.87 7.31 7.59
18 Cowlitz Youth SA NA NA NA 5.83
19 Desna SC -0.73 NA NA 3.58
20 Des Moines Midway Soccer Club NA -1.99 NA NA
21 Eastside FC 5.84 7.14 11.39 11.31
22 Emerald City FC NA 4.53 6.51 11.29
24 FC Alliance 5.93 6.59 7.16 6.24
25 FC Crush NA 0.08 NA NA
26 FC Edmonds 1.40 5.76 5.54 9.23
27 FC Kent -4.80 NA NA NA
28 Futbol Club Salmon Creek -0.85 3.58 NA 7.45
29 FC Spokane 0.68 5.04 6.77 10.62
30 Fife Milton Edgewood SC 0.43 4.20 3.80 4.33
31 Franklin Pierce SC 2.09 4.22 6.90 10.81
32 Fircrest SC NA NA NA 3.08
33 Federal Way FC 0.82 5.13 7.14 8.61
34 Harbor FC -0.36 3.98 7.09 9.09
35 Highlands SC NA NA 4.07 NA
36 Highline Premier FC 3.25 6.48 6.76 9.27
37 Cascade SC -0.64 5.74 6.20 6.61
38 Issaquah SC 5.35 6.85 6.53 9.21
39 Islander FC -1.86 -1.06 NA NA
40 Kajumulo FC NA NA 4.70 8.03
41 Kent United 2.22 5.22 8.72 8.20
42 Kitsap SC NA 5.75 NA 10.47
43 Kittitas Valley Junior SA 0.29 1.94 3.69 NA
44 Lake Hills SC -0.90 5.33 3.97 8.68
45 Legacy FC NA 3.97 NA 7.63
46 Lewis County Volcano SC NA NA 1.35 NA
48 Lower Yakima Valley Soccer Association NA 5.45 NA 9.21
49 Mercer Island FC -0.45 3.12 4.81 8.30
50 Monroe FC NA 4.25 4.86 NA
51 Mount Rainier FC 0.32 3.65 7.16 NA
52 Maple Valley SA -0.31 3.57 5.16 7.52
53 North County Youth Soccer Assoc NA NA 6.44 NA
54 Newport Youth SC -0.93 2.46 3.72 6.35
55 North Kitsap SC 0.06 2.59 4.74 NA
56 Normandy Park FC 3.41 NA NA NA
57 Norpoint SC NA NA NA 4.64
58 North Tacoma SC 2.80 1.15 3.58 9.45
59 Northshore SC 0.04 3.87 4.93 7.60
60 NW United FC 0.58 5.87 6.94 7.38
61 NW Nationals 1.81 6.49 7.51 9.12
62 North Whidbey SC NA NA 5.05 NA
63 Vancouver United Soccer Alliance 3.53 4.27 8.11 7.83
64 Orting FC NA -0.50 NA 4.58
65 Pacific FC 0.56 6.71 5.94 9.24
66 Pacific Northwest SC 3.03 7.50 10.89 9.64
67 Puyallup SC -1.19 NA 3.26 5.67
68 Pullman SC -0.47 2.85 5.47 NA
69 South Hill SC 1.70 4.72 3.42 7.19
70 Spokane Sabers FC -0.52 -0.14 4.88 6.37
71 Soccer Club of Renton East -0.30 NA NA NA
72 Seattle Celtic 0.57 0.69 4.74 NA
73 Seattle United 5.95 8.09 11.19 12.65
74 Spanaway Graham Eatonville SC -2.68 2.14 NA NA
75 Silver FC -5.26 NA NA NA
76 Silver Lake SC NA 2.03 NA 5.10
77 South Kitsap SC -0.84 NA NA NA
78 Rainier Valley Slammers -0.39 3.77 NA 5.97
79 Snohomish Youth SC 3.15 5.76 7.13 11.75
80 Sparta NorTac Select -1.52 3.12 5.21 6.70
81 Spokane Pumas FC -3.09 1.56 NA NA
82 Spokane Scotties -1.52 NA 3.90 NA
83 Spokane SC Shadow 3.87 5.40 6.86 10.00
84 Spokane Shadow SC -6.43 NA NA NA
85 Storm King SC -0.69 3.54 NA 7.85
86 Sumner SC NA -0.61 NA NA
87 Sun City Strikers -1.10 5.99 NA 5.71
88 Spokane Valley United SC -2.02 NA 2.03 NA
89 Tacoma United FC -1.12 5.21 9.24 8.36
90 Terrance Brier SC NA NA 7.25 NA
91 Thurston County United -3.16 NA 3.78 5.26
92 Cowlitz Youth Soccer Association Timber Barons -1.52 3.70 3.63 9.97
93 Tracyton SC NA 3.43 0.58 NA
94 Tukwila Skyway Soccer Club NA NA 7.18 NA
95 Tukwila Skyway SC -0.27 NA NA NA
96 Tynecastle FC 4.14 4.32 4.97 8.86
97 University Place Soccer Club -0.98 2.55 5.93 NA
98 Vashon Island SC NA -0.30 NA 5.15
99 Washington Rush SC 3.70 4.01 11.31 9.54
100 Washington East SC NA 4.17 8.19 9.87
101 Wenatchee Fire FC 0.04 6.41 6.76 NA
103 Westsound FC 0.79 3.92 8.04 NA
104 West Highline SC -2.07 NA 0.99 4.50
105 Whatcom FC Rangers 1.55 5.70 7.20 10.94
106 Washington Premier FC 6.36 9.10 11.43 12.89
107 West Seattle SC -0.37 3.34 4.51 9.04
108 Camas Washougal Soccer Club (Washington Soccer Academy) 0.60 0.65 8.71 8.89
109 XiFA Academy -0.19 3.92 7.38 10.45
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Fall league comparisons B00
Scaled so that 0 is the median strength of the B00 teams. Note this is uses the old scaling of teams, but shows how the WA, OR and BC fall leagues compare.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
WA B00 Champions Cup Predictions
April 22, 2013: Updated with results in green and to right.
April 25, 2013: Updated with quarter finals predictions
April 25, 2013: Updated with quarter finals predictions
B00 WA Champions Cup (WSYSA schedule page)
Quarter finals predictions
B00 WA Champions Cup qtr
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 Crossfire Premier A B00 vs WA Rush Nike B00, HW 98%, AW 1%, T 2%, pred score 5.4-0.6 (7-0)
04/27/2013 Eastside FC Red B00 vs FC Alliance A B00, HW 41%, AW 33%, T 26%, pred score 1.4-1.3 (3-2)
04/27/2013 Seattle United Copa B00 vs Crossfire Premier B B00, HW 78%, AW 7%, T 14%, pred score 2.5-0.7 (4-0)
04/28/2013 WPFC Black B00 vs Vancouver Timbers Red B00, HW 89%, AW 2%, T 8%, pred score 3-0.3
Bracket predictions
Individual games predictions
WA Champions Cup Bracket A
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Premier A B00 (#1) 98 2 0 0 1st 29pts, GD 17
Crossfire Premier B B00 (#9) 2 71 21 6 2nd 14pts, GD -2
Vancouver Timbers Red B00 (#13) 0 17 45 38 wildcard
PacNW Maroon B00 (#19) 0 9 35 56
WA Champions Cup Bracket B
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
WPFC Black B00 (#2) 63 34 3 0 1st 30pts, GD 10
FC Alliance A B00 (#5) 36 58 6 0 2nd 20pts, GD 11 SSC Shadow A B00 (#10) 1 8 84 7 NWN Red B00 (#34) 0 0 7 93 WA Champions Cup Bracket C 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Seattle United Copa B00 (#3) 54 43 3 0 1st 28pts, GD 10 Eastside FC Red B00 (#4) 45 49 5 1 2nd 20pts, GD 7 WA Rush Nike B00 (#12) 1 6 61 33 wildcard
Snohomish United Black B00 (#17) 0 2 32 66
Monday, January 21, 2013
Comparison of the B00 RCL D1/2 Fall standing using only summer data
One of the things I want to explore is whether summer data is a good predictor of Fall league performance. If so, it suggests that normal summer tournament data, without resorting to special ranking tournaments, can be used to help set Fall league composition.
Here's the first analysis. I compared simulated the B00 RCL D1 Fall league using only the summer data for B00's. Here's the results with the actual standings on the right. The summer results picked out the top 3 pretty well.
Here's the second analysis for RCL D2. Here summer results would have put SU Tango and Highline with high probability in the top 3, but only SU Tango was.
Here's the first analysis. I compared simulated the B00 RCL D1 Fall league using only the summer data for B00's. Here's the results with the actual standings on the right. The summer results picked out the top 3 pretty well.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
FC Alliance A B00 0 0 0 4 21 30 28 18 4th w 21 pts, GD 7
Crossfire Premier B B00 1 4 16 61 14 3 1 0 5th w 16 pts, GD -15
WPFC Black B00 28 42 25 5 0 0 0 0 1st w 32 pts, GD 21
Eastside FC Red B00 11 26 47 15 1 0 0 0 2nd w 28 pts, GD 18
Seattle United Copa B00 60 28 11 1 0 0 0 0 3rd w 26 pts, GD 17
WA Rush Nike B00 0 0 0 3 17 28 31 21 7th w 12 pts, GD -9
SSC Shadow A B00 0 0 0 1 5 13 26 55 6th w 13 pts, GD -12
Crossfire Premier A B01 0 0 1 11 41 26 14 6 8th w 5 pts, GD -17
Here's the second analysis for RCL D2. Here summer results would have put SU Tango and Highline with high probability in the top 3, but only SU Tango was.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th PacNW Maroon B00 4 19 34 23 13 5 2 0 2nd w 28 pts NWN Red B00 0 0 2 5 12 26 31 24 7th w 5 pts Eastside FC White B00 1 6 16 26 29 14 6 2 5th w 21 pts Highline Premier Blue B00 18 48 21 9 3 1 0 0 4th w 22 pts Snohomish United Black B00 0 0 2 6 14 28 29 21 3rd w 24 pts Westsound FC Red B00 0 0 0 2 5 14 28 51 8th w 4 pts Seattle United Tango B00 76 18 4 1 0 0 0 0 1st w 32 pts WPFC White B00 1 8 20 29 25 11 4 1 6th w 21 pts
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