OR B96 OPL Cup predictions

B96 OPL Cup semis 
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 Oregon Rush Nike B96 vs EMFC Azzurri B96, HW 55%, AW 21%, T 24%, pred score 1.8-1
04/28/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B96 vs FC Portland Navy B96, HW 45%, AW 30%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.3

OR B97 OPL Predictions

B97 OPL Cup semis 
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 OSSA Green II B97 vs OSSA Green I-WUSC Arsenal B97, HW 14%, AW 62%, T 24%, pred score 0.6-1.6
04/28/2013 WAFC Espana B97 vs BSC Portland Hood River B97, HW 30%, AW 52%, T 18%, pred score 2.2-2.8

B98 OPL State Cup predictions

B98 OPL Cup semis 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 FC Portland Navy B98 vs HSC Freeze B98, HW 72%, AW 11%, T 17%, pred score 2.4-0.8
04/28/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B98 vs CFC Real Madrid B98, HW 46%, AW 29%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-1.1 

B98 OPL Cup quarter finals
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
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04/27/2013 CFC Real Madrid B98 vs Thelo Cobras B98, HW 81%, AW 7%, T 12%, pred score 3-0.8
04/27/2013 FC Portland Navy B98 vs Lake Oswego SC Edge B98, HW 89%, AW 4%, T 8%, pred score 3.7-0.8
04/27/2013 NEU Gamban B98 vs HSC Freeze B98, HW 39%, AW 35%, T 26%, pred score 1.4-1.3
04/27/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B98 vs Eastside Timbers Red B98, HW 46%, AW 25%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-0.8

B99 OPL State Cup predictions

OPL schedule and scores

B99 OPL Cup semis
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 CFC Galacticos B99 vs Westside Timbers Copa B99, HW 50%, AW 29%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.6
04/28/2013 Hood River Dynamos Blue B99 vs FC Portland Navy B99, HW 30%, AW 47%, T 23%, pred score 1.4-1.8
 

B99 OPL Cup quarter finals
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
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04/27/2013 CFC Galacticos B99 vs Southside SC Barcelona B99, HW 90%, AW 3%, T 7%, pred score 3.4-0.5 (1-0)
04/27/2013 Eastside Timbers Red B99 vs FC Portland Navy B99, HW 4%, AW 86%, T 10%, pred score 0.5-2.9 (0-2)
04/27/2013 Hood River Dynamos Blue B99 vs NEU Galazios B99, HW 92%, AW 3%, T 5%, pred score 4.2-0.8 (3-0)
04/27/2013 Oregon Rush Nike B99 vs Westside Timbers Copa B99, HW 4%, AW 90%, T 6%, pred score 1-4.4 (0-6)

Prelims predictions (green shows actual result in terms of bracket standing)
Result of 10,000 simulated preliminary rounds.  Numbers are percent of time that team finishes in that place.   Bracket D missing due to code glitch.  Based on model fit to games up to start of prelims.

Flight A
                           1st 2nd 3rd
CFC Galacticos B99          50  43   7
FC Portland Navy B99        48  44   8
Westside Timbers Samba B99   3  13  85


Flight B
                          1st 2nd 3rd
Westside Timbers Copa B99  93   7   0
Eastside Timbers Red B99    7  82  11
EMFC Celtic B99             0  11  89


Flight C
                            1st 2nd 3rd
Hood River Dynamos Blue B99  95   5   0
Southside SC Barcelona B99    4  62  34
THUSC Argon B99               1  33  66 

B00 OR OPL State Cup Predictions

April 22, 2013: Updated with actual results
April 26, 2013: Updated with quarter final predictions

OPL schedule and scores 

Semi finals predictions

B00 OPL Cup semis 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 FC Portland Navy B00 vs Eastside Timbers Red B00, HW 89%, AW 4%, T 6%, pred score 4.4-1.1
04/28/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B00 vs WAFC Real Madrid B00, HW 40%, AW 38%, T 22%, pred score 1.8-1.8

  

Quarter finals predictions

Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
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04/27/2013 Eastside Timbers Red B00 vs Oregon Rush Nike B00, HW 68%, AW 15%, T 17%, pred score 2.7-1.2
04/27/2013 FC Portland Navy B00 vs Southside SC Azzuri B00, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 10%, pred score 3.3-0.8
04/27/2013 WAFC Real Madrid B00 vs PCU Red B00, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 9%, pred score 3.4-0.8
04/27/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B00 vs BSC Portland Black B00, HW 68%, AW 15%, T 17%, pred score 2.6-1.2
 

Prelims predictions 

Here's my model's predictions based on 10,000 simulated prelim rounds. Numbers in the table are percent of simulations with that place result.

Flight A
                     1st 2nd 3rd
FC Portland Navy B00  98   2   0   1st 6 pts, GD 7
PCU Red B00            2  87  12   2nd 3 pts, GD 0
EMFC Rovers Blue B00   0  11  88


Flight B
                     1st 2nd 3rd
WAFC Real Madrid B00  96   4   0  1st 6pts, GD 7
Oregon Rush Nike B00   3  70  26  2nd 3pts, GD 2
WAFC Barca B00         0  26  74


Flight C
                          1st 2nd 3rd
Westside Timbers Copa B00  81  18   1  1st 6pts, GD 11
Southside SC Azzuri B00    19  74   8  2nd 3pts, GD -1
FC West Halcones B00        0   8  92


Flight D
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
BSC Portland Black B00        57  32   9   2 2nd 4 pts, GD 0
Eastside Timbers Red B00      36  45  16   3 1st 5 pts, GD 3
LASC Halcones B00              6  18  51  24

Westside Timbers Mundial B00   1   5  24  71