PNW Boys U11-U18 updated biweekly through end of season

The WA, OR, ID boys are updated approximately biweekly through the end of the U11-U14 season.

2013-2014 Club strength across A, B and C teams (boys)

Same as previous analysis for team strength across ages across clubs but now showing the A, B, and C teams in a club.  Only 16 clubs that had enough B teams across multiple ages to have an interesting plot.  B team also needed to be strong enough to appear on my plot (not fall off the bottom of the y-axis).

8 data points.  B02 (U11) on the far left and B95 (U18) on the far right.   Red line is the median of the A teams from WPFC, Crossfire, Seattle United and Eastside.  Green line is the median across all select teams (not clubs) in WA.

2013-2014 Boys team strength across WA clubs

Following up on last years longer analysis of the strength of Washington clubs for boys,

here is an analysis of the strength of every select club's top boys team at U11-U18 in Washington.

Plot 1 shows and overview with Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC in red and every other club in black.  The green line is the median of all the black lines.

Plot 2 breaks this out by individual club.  This gives an overview of the types of teams difference clubs produce, what strength their A teams tends to be at, and whether the club fields teams at every age.

The red line is the median strength of the top teams at age in Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC. The are the four largest and strongest clubs in Washington and consistently produce a top 4 team across most every age. The dotted-red line is a strength -2 below the top team (or -200 on new scaling). The predicted goal ratio in a match-up between a team on the red line and one on the dotted red line is 4, so 4-1 or 8-2. So the red line team is heavily expected to win, but it would still be a somewhat competitive game. The green line is the median across all the top teams from every select club in Washington, except those top 4.

B02 at far left, B95 at far right. 

1pt difference is about the length of this hyphen - on this graph. Yes, small. Being 1 full pt stronger = scoring 2x as rapidly so is a significant advantage. So being on the green line versus slightly above it indicates a big difference in strength. The red line teams score about 80-100x more rapidly than the green line teams...

RCL D1 regional distribution

Here I look at the regional distribution of boys teams in the RCL D1 for fall 2013.  The RCL D1 is the strongest level of play in WA for all age groups except B97.  RCL is a closed league (closed to the clubs shown in the graphs).  However, except for B97, most WA teams at this level are playing in this league (the largest soccer clubs in WA are in the RCL so this is not surprising).

BU11-14
RCL is a state-wide league, but the top division in BU11-14 (32 teams) has about the lowest travel of any league/division.  Almost all teams (29 of 32) come from the SE Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area: Redmond, Seattle, Preston, Woodinville, Tukwila, and Tacoma.  The longest distance, Woodinville-Tacoma is 50miles (ca 1 hr) and most games would involve under 30min of travel.  In the fall 2013 season, there were no teams from E WA, W side of Puget Sound or the Portland Metro area in RCL D1.  There was 1 team from N WA (Bellingham) and 2 from the N Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area (Everett area).

 

BU15-18

At the HS age, BU15-18 (again 32 teams) the regional distribution of teams is more diverse and more "state-wide".  In fall 2013, most teams (21 of 32) still came from the SE Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro area. But N WA (Bellingham) had a team at 3 of the 4 age groups, and N Seattle Metro area (Everett) at least 1 team at each age group although these teams were not in the same club. There are 3 N Seattle Metro area RCL clubs: NWN, Rush and Snohomish. At U15, Rush had a team in D1, at U16 Snohomish, at U17 both Snohomish and Rush, and at U18 NWN.  This suggests that the N Seattle Metro area only has sufficient players to support 1 D1 team at the HS age.  This might explain why there are no D1 N Seattle Metro teams at BU11-14 as significant cross-club player-migration is needed to form a D1 team and this doesn't happen until HS age.

The Bellingham Metro area, despite being only the 5th largest metro area in the state, is well-represented in the HS RCL D1 with teams at 3 of the 4 ages.  The 4th largest metro area in WA is the Tri-Cities and is again is about 2x the size of the Bellingham metro area, but had only 2 teams in D1.  The N Portland Metro area (WA side) is the 3rd largest metro area and also about 2x as big as Bellingham, but is even less represented in RCL D1 at the HS age (1 team).  The second largest metro area in WA, the Spokane metro area, has no teams in the RCL D1.

What is driving these patterns?  The most obvious is population size.  If we look at county size versus # of HS boys teams in the RCL D1, we see see a strong relationship. 

• King Co: Crossfire, SU, Eastside, PacNW, FCA
• Snohomish: Snohomish United, NWN, WA Rush
• Pierce: WPFC, FWFC, Harbor, Slammers
• Spokane: SSC
• Clark+Skamania: WA Timbers
• Tri-Cities (Benton+Franklin)+Yakima: Three Rivers and Three Rivers Yakima
• Whatcom+Skagit: Whatcom Rangers
• Kitsap+Mason: Westound
• #s from here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_statistical_areas

A couple things jump out:

• Whatcom Rangers appears to over-produce RCL D1 teams relative to what you would expect given the population size of Whatcom+Skagit counties.  Both the Whatcom region has PSPL "competitors" but not at the RCL D1 level.
• Spokane metro area has 2-3 fewer RCL D1 teams than expected.  However Spokane does have 3 HS teams at RCL D1 strengths, but they do not play in the RCL D1 (2 in PSPL D1 and 1 in RCL D2).

When we plot the same relationship for the younger ages U11-14 (red line and dots), there seems a very different pattern:

 First, it looks like the size of the player pool has a much bigger effect at the younger ages.  There seems to be a minimum population size of about 500,000 before a region is able to produce a team strong enough to compete in the RCL D1.

HOWEVER, there RCL is promotion-relegation and it may be that there is a initial selection bias at U11 towards the King County clubs and that this takes a few seasons to work its way out.  Next up, I want to repeat this but with my team strength estimates which won't have this initial selection bias.

Where WA boys U11-14 play select soccer

I took all the teams BU11-14 and divided them into E WA vs W WA.  There are 546 boys teams in the WA select soccer leagues.

Where W WA plays
65% of W WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USYS leagues: PML, DIII, NPSL, and RCL. The main leagues are the NPSL and RCL.  The former is open to all USYS leagues while the latter is a closed league with only some USYS clubs sanctioned as "RCL" clubs.  The strongest teams in the state play in RCL division 1 (15 out of 16) and come from almost exclusively four western WA clubs: Seattle United, Eastside, WPFC, and Crossfire Premier (15 out of 16 with the 16th being another W WA club).  PML, DIII, and NPSL are regional leagues serving respectively Vancouver/Portland region, south Puget Sound, and north Puget Sound.  Outside of RCL division 1, the strength of competition in the leagues overlaps considerably.  35% of W WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USCS leagues: PSPL and OPL.  OPL serves the Vancouver area WA teams (and Oregon) and PSPL is a state-wide league.  However, approx 20% of W WA teams in the PSPL are in the Copa division which is restricted to western WA.

Where E WA plays
In contrast to W WA, only 30% of boys U11-14 teams play in the USYS leagues: DIV and RCL. 70% of E WA boys U11-14 teams play in the USCS leagues: PSPL and PSPL-inland.  PSPL is the state-wide league and PSPL-inland is restricted to eastern WA teams.  The strongest eastern WA teams generally (9 out of the top 16) play in the PSPL league, with the older ages more often in the WSPL (state-wide) and younger strong teams often found in the PSPL-inland league.  5 out of the top 16 eastern WA teams play in the RCL and 2 in the DIV league.

WA B99 Founders Bracket predictions

B99 Founders Cup

 Individual games predictions

Bracket finishing predictions

Founders Cup Bracket A
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Select Taylor B99   63  24  10   2
Seattle United NE Blue B99     2   7  20  71
Storm King B99                16  33  37  14
Mercer Island FC Tornado B99  20  36  32  13


Founders Cup Bracket B
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Lake Hills Synergy B99          16  72  12   0   0
Washington Timbers Crimson B99   0   0   1  27  72
Impact FC Black B99             83  16   1   0   0
TC United B99                    0   0   7  66  27
Seattle United S Blue B99        1  12  79   7   1


Founders Cup Bracket C
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Seattle United S Black B99  60  26  12   3   0
Whatcom Rangers White B99    0   0   0   4  96
Crossfire Select Yerxa B99   2   9  22  63   3
Kent United White B99       22  35  30  13   0
FC Edmonds Forza B99        16  30  36  17   0


Founders Cup Bracket D
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
ISC Arsenal Red B99                 0   0   2  11  87
Newport FC Warriors B99             5  19  42  30   4
Seattle United Shoreline Blue B99  24  47  21   7   0
Seattle United W Blue B99           2  10  29  50   8
NSC Fusion B99                     68  24   6   1   0

2013 Strength Ratings posted to Blog

Updated DRAFT 2013 boys ratings
9-21-2013

The tabs on the blog now point to the 2013 ranks. Soon I will add links to the archived 2012 ranks. I don't have the league table done yet nor column re what fall league the team is in.

I've entered the first 1-2 league games.  Leagues included are RCL, PSPL, OPL, NPSL, DIII, DVI, and PML.
Email corrections and additions to lastplanetranking@gmail.com.

Some things to keep in mind for the 2013 ratings:
* I have changed the scaling for teams.  All teams are scaled against the median U13 team.  The median U13 team is set to a strength of 800.  This makes the ratings look a little more like chess ratings.  2000 is a very strong HS team and the top teams won't hit this till U17-18.

* Check out the FAQ on the blog to understand the meaning of the strength rating.  This is a predictive model and the DIFFERENCE in strength ratings between 2 teams gives you a prediction of the RATIO of the goals scored.  If rescaled the ratings, so now a difference of 100 is a prediction that the ratio of goals scored will be 2 (so a 2:1 or 4:2 or 8:4 score, which of those depends on the strength-attack characteristics of the teams).  A difference of 200 is a prediction that the ratio of goals scored will be 4 (so 4:1 or 8:2 etc score).

* The ratings are based on 13 months of matches but the ratings are weighted (heavily) towards the more recent 2-3 months of games. On the pdf, you can see how a team changed after try-outs (or after key players added or dropped).

* The "All-xx" tables you see have teams that are from 2012-2013 and don't exist anymore, but the state tables only have teams that played a game in the last 3 months.

* Only teams with 7+ games are listed on the main tables.  You can see all teams on the All_Bxx_ranks.html file.  Don't make much of the rating of a team with only 3-5 games.

* I have the B02s listed to help me figure out 02 teams that played up in a tourney but didn't list their age.  I won't be rating the B02s past this stage.  I start with U12s when games are 11v11.

* I have B94s listed, but I won't include those either in the final.

* Oregon ratings will be sketchy until the fall league starts.  There were many name changes and reorganization of teams, so more data is needed to get these sorted out.

--LP

B99 WA Cup Qtr, Semi, and Finals predictions

B99 WA Cup Gold quarter finals 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
05/04/2013 Emerald City FC Green B99 vs San Carlos Bombers B99, HW 4%, AW 86%, T 11%, pred score 0.4-2.8
05/04/2013 Tacoma United Manchester B99 vs Cobra Aguilitas B99, HW 3%, AW 90%, T 7%, pred score 0.9-4.1 

B99 WA Cup Silver quarter finals 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------

05/04/2013 MVP Rapids Navy B99 vs NW United Powell B99, HW 6%, AW 78%, T 15%, pred score 0.5-2.3
05/04/2013 Pumas UNAM Seattle B99 vs WPFC Fury Black B99, HW 31%, AW 39%, T 30%, pred score 1-1.1

B99 OPL State Cup predictions

OPL schedule and scores

B99 OPL Cup semis
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/28/2013 CFC Galacticos B99 vs Westside Timbers Copa B99, HW 50%, AW 29%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.6
04/28/2013 Hood River Dynamos Blue B99 vs FC Portland Navy B99, HW 30%, AW 47%, T 23%, pred score 1.4-1.8
 

B99 OPL Cup quarter finals
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 CFC Galacticos B99 vs Southside SC Barcelona B99, HW 90%, AW 3%, T 7%, pred score 3.4-0.5 (1-0)
04/27/2013 Eastside Timbers Red B99 vs FC Portland Navy B99, HW 4%, AW 86%, T 10%, pred score 0.5-2.9 (0-2)
04/27/2013 Hood River Dynamos Blue B99 vs NEU Galazios B99, HW 92%, AW 3%, T 5%, pred score 4.2-0.8 (3-0)
04/27/2013 Oregon Rush Nike B99 vs Westside Timbers Copa B99, HW 4%, AW 90%, T 6%, pred score 1-4.4 (0-6)

Prelims predictions (green shows actual result in terms of bracket standing)
Result of 10,000 simulated preliminary rounds.  Numbers are percent of time that team finishes in that place.   Bracket D missing due to code glitch.  Based on model fit to games up to start of prelims.

Flight A
                           1st 2nd 3rd
CFC Galacticos B99          50  43   7
FC Portland Navy B99        48  44   8
Westside Timbers Samba B99   3  13  85


Flight B
                          1st 2nd 3rd
Westside Timbers Copa B99  93   7   0
Eastside Timbers Red B99    7  82  11
EMFC Celtic B99             0  11  89


Flight C
                            1st 2nd 3rd
Hood River Dynamos Blue B99  95   5   0
Southside SC Barcelona B99    4  62  34
THUSC Argon B99               1  33  66 

WA Cup Puget Sound Prelim Predictions (U12, U13, U14)

If the E WA and W WA prelim rounds equal numbers of teams, then the top 4 teams from the preliminary rounds go to the Gold semi-final round and the next 4 go to the Silver semi-final round.  However because the E WA and W WA numbers are not even, it won't be quite like that.  Nonetheless, PSPL hasn't posted the #s yet.   But nonetheless, assuming 4 teams go on to Gold, I marked my predictions for which teams those will be.  In some cases, a few teams were tied so I marked those lighter yellow.  I marked 'dark horses' green.  Most of the rest of the teams will make it on to the Silver round, but we won't know how many won't make it past the first weekend until PSPL posts the #s.

Predicted top 4 marked Gold (Yellow) and dark horses marked green for top 4.
PSPL schedule webpage

WA Cup GS U12  (individual game predictions)
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Cascade FC Green B00          13  22  32  23  10   1   0   0   0    0
ISC Gunners A B00             48  30  15   6   0   0   0   0   0    0
Normandy Park FC White B00    35  33  19  10   4   0   0   0   0    0
Tynecastle FC Outliers B00     4  13  29  42   7   3   0   0   0    0
Nortac Cosmos B00              0   0   1   6  18  62  10   2   0    0
RSA Elite Diamondbacks B00     0   1   4  13  60  21   1   0   0    0
FC Salmon Creek Juventus B00   0   0   0   0   0   1  17  29  33   21
Fuerza FC Academy B00          0   0   0   0   0   0   5  15  25   55
MRFC Blue B00                  0   0   0   0   0   8  42  24  16    9
MVP Rapids Navy B00            0   0   0   0   0   4  26  29  26   15


WA Cup GS U13
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Cobra Aguilitas B99           69  19   8   3   1   0   0   0   0    0
NW United Powell B99           5  18  28  25  12   6   3   1   1    0
San Carlos Bombers B99        19  42  23  11   3   1   0   0   0    0
Tacoma United Manchester B99   5  17  26  26  11   7   4   2   1    0
Kent United Green B99          1   2   7  15  30  23  11   7   4    2
RSA Elite B99                  0   2   5  11  22  25  16  10   6    2
Emerald City FC Green B99      0   0   1   3   6  11  18  23  22   18
MVP Rapids Navy B99            0   0   0   2   4   8  16  20  26   25
Pumas UNAM Seattle B99         0   0   0   1   2   4  10  16  26   42
WPFC Fury Black B99            0   1   2   4   9  14  23  21  15   11

B98 WA Cup GS

WA Cup GS U14
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
NW United Struk B98        10  62  18   7   2   1   0   0   0    0    0    0    0
Seattle Celtic FC A B98     0   0   0   1   1   6  46  20  10   10    3    1    0
Tacoma United Chelsea B98  87  11   1   0   0   0   0   0   0    0    0    0    0
Emerald City FC Green B98   1   6  19  20  23  21   5   3   1    0    0    0    0
ISC Gunners A B98           1   8  23  22  23  17   3   2   1    0    0    0    0
Kajumulo FC Tembo B98       0   0   0   1   2   6  14  24  26   13    8    4    1
MRFC Blue B98               1   7  19  24  21  19   5   3   1    0    0    0    0
MVP Rapids Navy B98         0   0   0   1   3   8  17  29  28    6    3    2    1
WPFC Fury Black B98         1   6  18  23  24  20   4   2   1    0    0    0    0
MRFC White B98              0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   4   11   16   26   41
Pumas UNAM B98              0   0   0   0   0   0   2   4   7   21   26   23   17
RSA Elite B98               0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   6   12   19   29   32
WPFC Fury Navy B98          0   0   0   0   0   1   3   8  14   25   24   15    8

B99 WA Cup Bronze

WA Cup Bronze U13
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
Cascade FC B99              0   4  20  31  25  19
FC Crush Classic B99        0   1   5  12  25  57
MRFC Blue B99              33  47  13   5   1   0
MVP Rapids White B99        2  12  34  26  18   9
Tacoma United Chelsea B99   0   5  23  25  31  15
Legacy FC Maroon B99       64  31   4   1   0   0

Team strength by age and club in WA

4-4-2013.  Updated to include B96 (U16)
This post is for 2012-2013. Click here to see the 2013-2014 Boys analysis and here to see the 2013-2014 Girls analysis

I was interested in the pattern of team strength across BU12 to BU16 across all clubs in Washington.  Which clubs are able to consistently field the strongest teams across multiple ages?  Are some clubs able to do this consistently across ages or did most clubs have stronger and weaker age groups?  Are RCL clubs able to field stronger A teams on average?

To look at these questions, I took all the WA clubs that have a team at least 4 ages from BU12 to BU16 and computed the maximum "B00 strength" at that age for the club.  "B00 strength" means that each age was scaled to the median strength of WA-OR B00 teams.  That put all ages on the same scale.  "maximum strength at that age for club" means that I took the maximum strength of all teams a club had at a particular age.  For example Crossfire Premier has 4 B00 teams, and I took the maximum of those teams' strengths.  For Crossfire Premier, this is simply the A team strength, but other clubs do not name their A, B, C teams consistently so I just took the maximum the teams a club has at a particular age.

There are 37 clubs in WA that have a select team at each age BU12 to BU16.  This is out of 109 WA clubs in my database. This plot shows all the B00 strengths for these 37 clubs.  Each line is a different club.  There are three clubs that stand out in being able to field an exceptionally strong team at each age BU12 to BU15 and form the outer edge of the strength by age plot: Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Seattle United.  Eastside FC is a close 4th, with a couple slightly weaker age years (U13 and U14).  At U16, Crossfire, WPFC and Eastside form the outer edge of the plot, but SU has an unusually weak A team.  No other clubs had more than two teams between BU12-15 that were within 2 points of the red top lines below.  The green line in the graph is the median strength at age across all clubs.

Comment #1: I would assume this result is driven by the size of the player pool.  Crossfire Premier fields 4-5 teams at each age.  Seattle United has 2-3 full-year teams and 6-8 part-year (aka select) teams at each age.  WPFC fields 2 full-year teams and is associated with a very strong part-year (aka select) club, WPFC Fury.  However I'm not sure how seamless the player movement is between WPFC and WPFC Fury.  Clearly though, WPFC is not hindered by a limited player pool.  Eastside FC fields fewer teams at each age (generally 1-2 less than Crossfire) and is not integrated with a select club.  This slightly smaller player pool may account for the greater fluctuation in strength across ages for Eastside FC.

Comment  #2: I'm slowly collecting match data on the top west-coast teams in order to pencil in where the top of this curve is for the west-coast boys.  My sense right now is that the top CA teams are 2 strength points above the top WA teams.  Maybe 1.5 but data points to a higher difference.

Next I looked at each club individually to see if there were any patterns between, say, RCL and non-RCL teams in terms of strength of teams across ages.  For this I looked at the strength of the top team in RCL versus non-RCL clubs.  I plotted Crossfire Premier, WPFC, Seattle United and Eastside FC separately since they were outliers even among the RCL clubs.  The boxplot below shows the results with the box enclosing the middle 50% of clubs at each age and the whiskers showing the full range of strengths.  I also added the strengths of the best teams from smaller clubs that do not have a team at each age.  What we see is that the best RCL teams are usually better than the best non-RCL teams, but that there is quite a lot of overlap---the whiskers on the boxplots of the non-RCL clubs overlap the boxes for the RCL clubs.  The green line is the median across all clubs (none excluded so same green line as in plot above).

Which clubs have a top team with a strength above the median "best-team" line (green line) at each age BU12 to BU15?

[1] "3 Rivers SC"           "Crossfire Premier SC"  "Eastside FC"          
[4] "NW Nationals"          "Pacific Northwest SC"  "Seattle United"       
[7] "Snohomish United SC"    "Spokane SC Shadow"     "Washington Premier FC"

Ah, those are all big clubs. Ok, let's set the bar a bit lower. Which clubs field a team with a strength above -1 plus the median "best-team" line (green line) at each age? So their strongest team has to be no more that 1 point below the median "best-team" so could have a competitive game with that median team. I'll divide this into RCL and non-RCL. I define "RCL" as having a team that plays in the spring RCL, so clubs that played in the fall RCL via the Open Cup are non-RCL in my grouping.

RCL (13 out of 21 RCL clubs do)

[1] "3 Rivers SC"           "Crossfire Premier SC"  "Eastside FC"          
 [4] "Federal Way FC"        "Highline Premier FC"   "NW Nationals"         
 [7] "Pacific Northwest SC"  "Seattle United"        "Snohomish United"   
[10] "Spokane SC Shadow"     "Washington Rush SC"    "Whatcom FC Rangers"   
[13] "Washington Premier FC"

Non-RCL (5 out of 27 non-RCL bigger clubs do)

[1] "Cobra Premier Soccer" "FC Spokane"  "Franklin Pierce SC (WPFC Fury)"  
[4] "Issaquah SC"          "Kent United"

Next question was what clubs can field teams that can compete with the top RCL teams?  Here "compete with" was defined as "having a strength within 2 points of the median of the 4 top clubs".  The 4 top clubs are Crossfire Premier, Eastside FC, Seattle United, and WPFC.  Although Eastside FC has some "weaker" ages, those "weaker" ages are still within 2 points of the other top clubs.  In the boxplot above, this median "exceptionally strong" team was the median of the red boxes.

Which clubs can field two teams within 2 points of the "exceptionally strong" teams? Three clubs other than the top 4 can field two teams within 2 strength points of the top:  "Issaquah SC", "FC Alliance" and "PacNW".  No clubs except the top 4 clubs can field 3 teams within 2 strength points of the top. 

Which clubs can field at least ONE team within 2 strength points of the top? For this I included the smaller non-RCL clubs.

Non-RCL clubs with team within 2 strength points of the top.  Number of ages fielded noted.

"Central WA Soccer Academy (1 age)" "Cobra Premier Soccer (4 ages)" "Emerald City FC (3 ages)" "FC Spokane (4 ages)"  "Franklin Pierce SC (WPFC Fury) (4 ages)" "Issaquah SC (4 ages)" "Pacific FC (4 ages)"

RCL clubs with team within 2 strength points of the top

"3 Rivers SC" "FC Alliance"  "Highline Premier FC" "NW Nationals"          "PacNW" "Snohomish United"  "WA Rush SC"  "Whatcom FC Rangers" 

This result is especially interesting to me. 15 clubs (besides the top 4) can field 1-2 teams within 2 strengths points of the top. 8 are RCL and 7 are non-RCL, and of those 7 non-RCL clubs, 2 are small clubs that do not field a team at each age.

Finally, here are all the individual plots for clubs with a team at least 4 age between BU12-16.  The black line is the max strength of the club's teams at a particular age.  The red line is the median strength for Crossfire Premier, WPFC and Seattle United.  The dotted red line is -2 below that, so a team above that dotted red line could play a game with the red line and not be totally gutted by more than a GD of 4.  Franklin Pierce SC = WPFC Fury.

B00 at far left, B96 at far right.

1pt difference is about the length of this hyphen - on this graph. Yes, small.

Being 1 full pt stronger = scoring 2x as rapidly so is a significant advantage.  So being on the green line versus slightly above it indicates a big difference in strength.  The red line teams score about 80-100x more rapidly than the green line teams....

Finally here is a table with B00 team strengths.  The median strong 4 clubs is for reference:

med.strong
   B00    B99    B98    B97 
 6.155  8.410 11.290 12.545

                                                       club   B00   B99   B98   B97
1                                               3 Rivers SC  2.10  5.33  7.02 10.83
2                              Academy of Soccer Excellence -2.27  5.58    NA    NA
3                                          Avanti United FC -2.52    NA    NA  0.52
4                                      Bainbridge Island FC  2.36  3.51  5.38  8.02
5                                             Blackhills FC -0.37  4.82  9.01 10.27
7                                               Breakers SC  0.08  4.35  6.09  8.16
8                                                Cascade FC  2.95  0.73  4.80  8.20
9                                  Columbia Basin United FC -0.47  5.44    NA  4.99
10                                  Columbia Basin Youth SA -3.73  2.11    NA    NA
11                                Central WA Soccer Academy  4.57    NA    NA    NA
12                                          Cheney Storm FC -1.10  0.27  4.96    NA
13                                        Chehalis Youth SC    NA    NA    NA  5.54
14                                        Central Kitsap SC    NA  1.02    NA  4.10
15                                     Cobra Premier Soccer  3.26  7.54  6.00  9.98
16                                     Crossfire Premier SC  6.67  8.73 10.65 12.44
17                                      Crossfire Select SC  1.92  3.87  7.31  7.59
18                                         Cowlitz Youth SA    NA    NA    NA  5.83
19                                                 Desna SC -0.73    NA    NA  3.58
20                            Des Moines Midway Soccer Club    NA -1.99    NA    NA
21                                              Eastside FC  5.84  7.14 11.39 11.31
22                                          Emerald City FC    NA  4.53  6.51 11.29
24                                              FC Alliance  5.93  6.59  7.16  6.24
25                                                 FC Crush    NA  0.08    NA    NA
26                                               FC Edmonds  1.40  5.76  5.54  9.23
27                                                  FC Kent -4.80    NA    NA    NA
28                                 Futbol Club Salmon Creek -0.85  3.58    NA  7.45
29                                               FC Spokane  0.68  5.04  6.77 10.62
30                                  Fife Milton Edgewood SC  0.43  4.20  3.80  4.33
31                                       Franklin Pierce SC  2.09  4.22  6.90 10.81
32                                              Fircrest SC    NA    NA    NA  3.08
33                                           Federal Way FC  0.82  5.13  7.14  8.61
34                                                Harbor FC -0.36  3.98  7.09  9.09
35                                             Highlands SC    NA    NA  4.07    NA
36                                      Highline Premier FC  3.25  6.48  6.76  9.27
37                                               Cascade SC -0.64  5.74  6.20  6.61
38                                              Issaquah SC  5.35  6.85  6.53  9.21
39                                              Islander FC -1.86 -1.06    NA    NA
40                                              Kajumulo FC    NA    NA  4.70  8.03
41                                              Kent United  2.22  5.22  8.72  8.20
42                                                Kitsap SC    NA  5.75    NA 10.47
43                                Kittitas Valley Junior SA  0.29  1.94  3.69    NA
44                                            Lake Hills SC -0.90  5.33  3.97  8.68
45                                                Legacy FC    NA  3.97    NA  7.63
46                                  Lewis County Volcano SC    NA    NA  1.35    NA
48                   Lower Yakima Valley Soccer Association    NA  5.45    NA  9.21
49                                         Mercer Island FC -0.45  3.12  4.81  8.30
50                                                Monroe FC    NA  4.25  4.86    NA
51                                         Mount Rainier FC  0.32  3.65  7.16    NA
52                                          Maple Valley SA -0.31  3.57  5.16  7.52
53                          North County Youth Soccer Assoc    NA    NA  6.44    NA
54                                         Newport Youth SC -0.93  2.46  3.72  6.35
55                                          North Kitsap SC  0.06  2.59  4.74    NA
56                                         Normandy Park FC  3.41    NA    NA    NA
57                                              Norpoint SC    NA    NA    NA  4.64
58                                          North Tacoma SC  2.80  1.15  3.58  9.45
59                                            Northshore SC  0.04  3.87  4.93  7.60
60                                             NW United FC  0.58  5.87  6.94  7.38
61                                             NW Nationals  1.81  6.49  7.51  9.12
62                                         North Whidbey SC    NA    NA  5.05    NA
63                         Vancouver United Soccer Alliance  3.53  4.27  8.11  7.83
64                                                Orting FC    NA -0.50    NA  4.58
65                                               Pacific FC  0.56  6.71  5.94  9.24
66                                     Pacific Northwest SC  3.03  7.50 10.89  9.64
67                                              Puyallup SC -1.19    NA  3.26  5.67
68                                               Pullman SC -0.47  2.85  5.47    NA
69                                            South Hill SC  1.70  4.72  3.42  7.19
70                                        Spokane Sabers FC -0.52 -0.14  4.88  6.37
71                               Soccer Club of Renton East -0.30    NA    NA    NA
72                                           Seattle Celtic  0.57  0.69  4.74    NA
73                                           Seattle United  5.95  8.09 11.19 12.65
74                            Spanaway Graham Eatonville SC -2.68  2.14    NA    NA
75                                                Silver FC -5.26    NA    NA    NA
76                                           Silver Lake SC    NA  2.03    NA  5.10
77                                          South Kitsap SC -0.84    NA    NA    NA
78                                  Rainier Valley Slammers -0.39  3.77    NA  5.97
79                                       Snohomish Youth SC  3.15  5.76  7.13 11.75
80                                     Sparta NorTac Select -1.52  3.12  5.21  6.70
81                                         Spokane Pumas FC -3.09  1.56    NA    NA
82                                         Spokane Scotties -1.52    NA  3.90    NA
83                                        Spokane SC Shadow  3.87  5.40  6.86 10.00
84                                        Spokane Shadow SC -6.43    NA    NA    NA
85                                            Storm King SC -0.69  3.54    NA  7.85
86                                                Sumner SC    NA -0.61    NA    NA
87                                        Sun City Strikers -1.10  5.99    NA  5.71
88                                 Spokane Valley United SC -2.02    NA  2.03    NA
89                                         Tacoma United FC -1.12  5.21  9.24  8.36
90                                        Terrance Brier SC    NA    NA  7.25    NA
91                                   Thurston County United -3.16    NA  3.78  5.26
92           Cowlitz Youth Soccer Association Timber Barons -1.52  3.70  3.63  9.97
93                                              Tracyton SC    NA  3.43  0.58    NA
94                               Tukwila Skyway Soccer Club    NA    NA  7.18    NA
95                                        Tukwila Skyway SC -0.27    NA    NA    NA
96                                            Tynecastle FC  4.14  4.32  4.97  8.86
97                             University Place Soccer Club -0.98  2.55  5.93    NA
98                                         Vashon Island SC    NA -0.30    NA  5.15
99                                       Washington Rush SC  3.70  4.01 11.31  9.54
100                                      Washington East SC    NA  4.17  8.19  9.87
101                                       Wenatchee Fire FC  0.04  6.41  6.76    NA
103                                            Westsound FC  0.79  3.92  8.04    NA
104                                        West Highline SC -2.07    NA  0.99  4.50
105                                      Whatcom FC Rangers  1.55  5.70  7.20 10.94
106                                   Washington Premier FC  6.36  9.10 11.43 12.89
107                                         West Seattle SC -0.37  3.34  4.51  9.04
108 Camas Washougal Soccer Club (Washington Soccer Academy)  0.60  0.65  8.71  8.89
109                                            XiFA Academy -0.19  3.92  7.38 10.45
 

Fall league comparison B99

Scaled so that 0 is the median strength of the B99 teams. This uses my old scaling but shows the relative strengths of the WA, OR and BC B99 leagues.

WA B99 Champions Cup Predictions

April 25, 2013 Updated with quarter finals predictions

B99 WA Champions Cup (WSYSA schedule and results)

Quarter final predictions

B99 WA Champions Cup qtr 
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 Crossfire Premier A B99 vs Highline Premier Blue B99, HW 94%, AW 2%, T 4%, pred score 5-0.9
04/27/2013 Eastside FC Red B99 vs FC Alliance A B99, HW 52%, AW 26%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.4
04/27/2013 Seattle United Copa B99 vs NWN Red B99, HW 81%, AW 7%, T 12%, pred score 3-0.8  (0-2)
04/27/2013 WPFC Black B99 vs Pacific FC Fire B99, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 10%, pred score 3.1-0.6
 

Bracket predictions

Individual games predictions 

Note Pacific Fire team is listed as Pacific Fire White, coach Harris.  I could find no team of that description, and guessed the team was Pacific FC Fire.

WA Champions Cup Bracket A
                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Crossfire Premier A B99  89  10   1   0   0

PacNW Maroon B99          9  58  23   9   1
Pacific FC Fire B99       2  18  38  31  11

NWN Red B99               1  13  32  41  13
LYVYSA Portugal B99       0   1   5  19  76


WA Champions Cup Bracket B
                         1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Seattle United Copa B99   90   9   1   0   0
FC Alliance A B99          8  58  21   9   3
Whatcom Rangers Gold B99   1  16  32  29  22

3 Rivers Black B99         1  11  29  33  27
FC Spokane Black B99       0   5  17  29  48


WA Champions Cup Bracket C
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
WPFC Black B99              96   4   0   0   0
Eastside FC Red B99          3  67  21   7   2
Highline Premier Blue B99    1  19  39  26  15
Sun City Strikers Red B99    0   7  25  37  31

Snohomish United Black B99   0   3  14  30  52

WA B99 Challenge Cup Predictions

B99 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 (WSYSA schedule and results page)

Quarter-finals predictions

 B99 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 qtr 
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 Blackhills FC Black B99 vs Eastside FC White B99, HW 22%, AW 58%, T 20%, pred score 1.4-2.3
04/27/2013 Seattle United Tango B99 vs FWFC Blue B99, HW 53%, AW 26%, T 21%, pred score 2.2-1.5
04/27/2013 SSC Shadow A B99 vs Storm King B99, HW 90%, AW 3%, T 7%, pred score 3.8-0.7
04/27/2013 WPFC White B99 vs Whatcom Rangers Blue B99, HW 90%, AW 3%, T 7%, pred score 3.6-0.6

Bracket predictions

Individual games predictions 

WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket A
                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th
WPFC White B99           64  24  10   2
Crossfire Premier B B99  17  37  35  11

FWFC Blue B99            17  34  37  12
WA Rush Nike B99          1   6  18  75


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket B
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastside FC White B99      59  26  11   4
SSC Shadow A B99           27  38  23  12
PacNW Blue B99             10  22  37  31
Vancouver Timbers Red B99   4  14  29  53


WA Challenge Cup Div 1 Bracket C
                         1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Seattle United Tango B99  71  21   6   1   0
Blackhills FC Black B99   21  48  22   8   0
Whatcom Rangers Blue B99   6  21  44  28   1

Storm King B99             1   9  27  60   2

Snohomish United Red B99   0   0   0   3  97

 

---

B99 WA Challenge Cup Div 2 (WSYSA schedule and results page)

 

Semis predictions

B99 WA Challenge Cup Div 2 semis 
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 NWN Blue B99 vs Eastside FC Blue B99, HW 19%, AW 62%, T 19%, pred score 1.2-2.3
04/27/2013 PacNW White B99 vs Vancouver Timbers White B99, HW 4%, AW 88%, T 8%, pred score 0.9-3.8

Bracket predictions 
Individual games predictions
WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket A
                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Harbor Premier B99       42  27  19  12
Westsound FC Red B99     26  29  26  19
Slammers Orange B99      23  27  28  22

Crossfire Premier C B99  10  17  27  47


WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket B
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Washington East SC Cater B99  48  38  11   3

Eastside FC Blue B99          45  39  12   3
NWN Blue B99                   5  16  45  34

Highline Premier Red B99       2   8  31  60


WA Challenge Cup Div 2 Bracket C
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Vancouver Timbers White B99  89   9   2   0   0

FC Alliance B B99             7  48  28  14   4
PacNW White B99               2  25  33  27  12
Crossfire Premier D B99       2  15  27  34  22

WA Rush Swoosh B99            0   3  10  25  62