Friday, November 23, 2012

Comparison of league strengths for B00 and B99

Here's the league strengths plot using those draft b99 rankings.   In the plot, 0 is the median strength of teams in B99.  A team with a strength of 1 over another would be expect to win about 60% of the time, and with a strength of 2 over another would be expected to win about 85% of the time.

Here are the medians for that plot.
          BCPL         RCL D1        OPL NPL         RCL D2      PSPL WSPL
         3.555          2.555          2.100          1.760          1.670
PSPL Classic 1    OPL 1st Div       D6 Umbro       PML Blue         RCL D3
         0.760          0.295          0.380          0.320          0.465
       D3 Gold        NPSL D1    OPL 2nd Div   PSPL In-Copa PSPL Classic 2
        -0.185          0.280         -0.245         -0.325         -0.945
         D3 S2         RCL D4          D3 S1      PSPL Copa        NPSL D2
        -0.860         -1.290         -0.685         -1.420         -1.170
       PML Red    OPL 3rd Div      D6 Reebok
        -1.725         -1.960         -2.280

For comparison, here's the same plot for b00.  Strengths have the same interpretation but now everything is scaled to the median b00 team.

Here's the medians for the b00's:
      BCPL       RCL D1      OPL NPL    PSPL WSPL       RCL D2     PML Blue
       3.910        3.265        2.230        2.060        1.870        1.610
 OPL 1st Div      NPSL D1       RCL D3 PSPL Classic  OPL 2nd Div     D6 Umbro
       0.645        0.570        0.165        0.260        0.120        0.335
     D3 Gold PSPL In-Copa    PSPL Copa      NPSL D2  OPL 3rd Div       RCL D4
      -0.515       -0.585       -0.960       -0.740       -1.350       -0.910
     PML Red        D3 S1        D3 S2    D6 Reebok        D3 S3  OPL 4th Div
      -1.630       -1.235       -1.635       -1.205       -1.700       -1.740
   D6 Adidas
      -3.340

Some interesting similarities and differences.  In both, there is a big gap in the RCL D1 rankings.  2-3 teams are distanced from the others.  The median difference between RCL D1 and PSPL WSPL is similar (about 1).  Overall median league strengths seem pretty similar across the b00's and b99's with the top district leagues being about RCL D3.  Big difference is that in this preliminary analysis, a lot of the top b99 leagues have teams that could hang with the bulk of RCL D1.  That doesn't look so true in b00.  But the top of D1 is well out from from best teams in all other leagues (with the exception of ISC A in the b00's).

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