PNW Girls updated 1/27/2015

If you see something amiss, please drop mean an email at lastplanetranking at gmail dot com. Cleaned up the tabs at the top.

Note this is only for G03 to G00. If you have a G01, look at the West Coast G01 tables (yellow tabs at top). That database is more comprehensive and includes the whole west coast.

--LP

PNW Girls Updated 10-28-2014

These are draft ratings. I am still actively tracking down errors in the match database. If you see something amiss, please drop mean an email at lastplanetranking at gmail dot com. It is easiest to see the tables using the index page at the moment: http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/girls-index.html

Note this is only for G03 to G99. If you have a G01, look at the West Coast G01 tables (yellow tabs at top). That database is more comprehensive and includes the whole west coast.

--LP

2013-2014 Girls team strength across WA Clubs

This is the same analysis as for boys but for girls U11-U14.

Overall:

Compared to the boys, the top clubs have a lot more competition at U11-U14.  The red lines have a lot more black lines near them.

By club.  G02 on the far left.  G99 on the far right.  4 ages.  4 points.

Simulating the 2014 So Cal Governors Prelim Rounds

Some analysis of the SoCal Govenor Cup G01 Preliminary round predictions.  Scroll way down to see the simulations or click this --> Link to page where you can see simulations with link to team pages This simulation was run with a model based on data before the Governors Cup started.  Here are the actual results from the tournament.

So how well did the model do comparing the predictions and actual results?

• Predicting the #1 finisher. What fraction of the time brackets do you expect that the team with the highest probability would win?  To do comparison, I sum up the highest probabilities in the 1st column and divide by 100 and compare to # of times the #1 finisher was the one with the highest probability.
• If my model were perfect and there were no uncertainty in the estimates, then I expect to get 11.29 brackets right (right=I correctly predicted the #1 in bracket).
• If I chose randomly (meaning all probabilities in 1st col = 25), I expect to get .26x17=4.25 brackets right.   
• I actually got 7 right.  Better than average but definitely lower than 11 by a lot.
• So, the estimated strengths are uncertain (certainly true) and/or past performance is not a perfect predictor future performance (also true).
• Overall, my impression of my success at predicting the #1 finisher in a bracket is...'Meh'. I suspect that that is just hard to predict (which is part of what make tournaments fun---the favorites do not always finish #1)
• How well does the model predict what team gets through their bracket.  Here things look a lot better (to me).  This plot shows the model probability of getting through (probability finishing #1 + probability of finishing #2) against whether or not the team did get through (0 or 1).  You can see there is a strong correlation.  If there were none, the red line, which is the logistic regression fit, would be flat.
• If the model probability is less than 30, chances are grim BUT some do still make it and it could be your team!
• If the probability is greater than 70, chances are good but don't get complacent.  Even teams almost certain of making it through (according to my model) have been stopped in the prelims.
• Between 30 and 70, chances are about 50/50.
• Next step, compare to the National Cup logistic regression after that cup is done.  My intuition is that a higher level cup (National Cup) will be more predictable---though this is pretty spot on.

SIMULATION RESULTS

SoCal Govenors Bracket A
                                    1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Conejo Valley United White G01        0   2  10  88
Temecula United G01                  32  33  31   4  #2
West Coast SA East Valley Lions G01  37  33  27   4  #3
Westside Breakers Blue G01           31  32  32   4  #1

SoCal Govenors Bracket B
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carlsbad Lightning White G01    0   3  28  69
Murrieta Surf Blue G01          8  75  14   2  #1
Santa Monica United G01        91   9   0   0  #2
Simi Valley Eclipse White G01   0  13  58  29  #3


SoCal Govenors Bracket C
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Fram Soccer Club White G01  44  38  14   4 #1
Santa Anita SC Bronze G01   47  36  13   4 #2
Baldwin Park United G01      4  11  33  52 #3
Santa Barbara SC Red G01     5  15  40  40


SoCal Govenors Bracket D
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Desert Elite FC Natives G01   1  24  31  44
Legends FC White G01         95   4   0   0 #1
Vista Storm G01               2  32  35  31 #2
Wolfpack G01                  2  39  33  25 #3


SoCal Govenors Bracket E
                                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Downtown SC G01                                 1   3  12  84
San Luis Obispo Storm G01                      23  31  38   8 #1
Elite Soccer League - Saddleback Strikers G01  44  32  21   3 #3
Sherman Oaks Extreme G01                       33  34  28   5 #2


SoCal Govenors Bracket F
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arsenal FC SD Avengers         0   1  15  84 #3
Central Coast Condors G01      2  16  68  14
CVSC Rebels G01               18  65  16   1 #2
So Cal Athletic Stanwood G01  80  18   1   0 #1


SoCal Govenors Bracket G [I'm not sure I used the right Wolves team]
                                 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
FC Deportivo Hacienda Wolves G01  43  28  19  10
LA Galaxy South Bay HB Black G01   7  15  27  51 #2
Legacy FC G01                     26  29  27  18 #3
San Diego SC Black G01            25  28  27  20 #1


SoCal Govenors Bracket H
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
AYSO Matrix Bonita Blue G01   2  59  28  11 #2
Westfield SC Blue G01         0  27  43  30 #3
CVSC Rampage G01             98   2   0   0 #1
Empire SC G01                 0  12  30  58

Bracket I missing because no data on AYSO team

SoCal Govenors Bracket J
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th
California FC Pumas G01          2   6  18  75 #3
San Diego Fusion G01            22  30  36  12
Santa Clarita Valley Green G01  37  32  25   7 #1
Simi Valley Eclipse Blue G01    40  32  22   6 #2


SoCal Govenors Bracket K
                                     1st 2nd 3rd 4th
RSF Attack Green G01                   0   3  41  56
Scripps Ranch SC Red G01               0   4  52  43 #3
Coachella Valley Soccer Strikers G01  57  40   3   0 #1
Slammers FC White G02                 42  53   5   1 #2


SoCal Govenors Bracket L
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Real So Cal Black G01          8  51  31  10 #1
City SC Westchester G01        5  31  47  17
Elite Soccer League Surf G01  87  11   2   0 #2
FC Sol Black G01               0   7  20  73 #3 

Bracket N missing since no data on the AYSO team

SoCal Govenors Bracket M
                                 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Foothill Storm G01                24  25  26  25 #2
LA Galaxy South Bay HB Green G01  28  26  24  22
San Marcos YS Revolution G01      20  22  25  33 #3
Xplosion SC Whittier G01          27  27  25  21 #1


SoCal Govenors Bracket O
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Celtic Hibs G01                 0   5  19  76
Crescenta Valley SC White G01  93   6   1   0 #1
LA Premier FC White G01         4  51  35   9 #3
Poway Vaqueros White G01        2  37  45  15 #2


SoCal Govenors Bracket P
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cypress FC Premier White G01   52  37  11   0 #1
La Jolla Impact Blue G01       42  43  14   1 #2
Ventura County Fusion YSA G01   0   0   8  92
Exiles SC Red G01               6  19  67   7 #3


SoCal Govenors Bracket Q
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Liverpool Premier Trask G01   4  15  56  25 #2
Pateadores HB Blue G01       35  50  14   2 #1
Madrid North G01             61  32   6   1 #3
Valley United Sedaghat G01    0   3  24  72


SoCal Govenors Bracket R
                                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
AYSO Matrix San Elijo G01                   0  61  27  12 #2
BYSC Corona United G01                    100   0   0   0 #1
Irvine Slammers White - FC Blades Red G01   0  16  32  52
Wolfpack White G01                          0  23  41  36 #3


SoCal Govenors Bracket S
                                      1st 2nd 3rd 4th
El Segundo Gunners G01                 20  55  18   6 #2
Encinitas Express Soccer Blue G01       1  11  38  50 #1
Greater Long Beach SC Tidal Waves G01  76  20   3   1 #3
LA Galaxy South Bay White G01           2  13  41  44

Code that made the plot
glm.out = glm(P ~ made, family=binomial(logit), data=a)
plot(a$made,a$P, type="p",ylab="Probability of Making it Through",xlab="Model Probability of Making it Through")
lines(a$made[order(a$made)], glm.out$fitted[order(a$made)], col="red",lwd=4)

Simulating the 2014 So Cal G01 National Cup Preliminary Rounds

Click here to see a webpage of this, where you can click team name and go directly to the team's match history. When looking at individual team analyses, keep the following in mind:

• The plot you see when you click on the individual team page is the result (better/worse than expected) against the 12-month AVERAGE performance.  It is meant to highlight whether the team is changing in strength---relative to competitors.
• The strength rating you see in the tables and in the match predictor is not the 12-month average.  It is time-weighted, meaning it is heavily weighted to the RECENT games.
• The algorithm is based on performance over (recent) games.  Some teams use a 'player pass' and are essentially 2 teams with different strengths and the algorithm gives the average of these two.  Usually you see this in the attack (presumably because a striker is being player passed) and you can identify such teams because their attack residuals have two 'peaks'---one low and high.  This is different than a team that has an inconsistent attack and the residuals are just spread out.  If you don't know ahead of time what team will be fielded, it usually it will be clear after 1-2 cup games.  At that point, predicted GF can be adjusted upward or downward.

SoCal National Cup Bracket A
                                   1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
BYSC Corona United G01               3  21  61  12   3
Legends FC Gold G01                 18  58  21   2   0
Tustin United G01                    0   1  10  51  37
Encinitas Express Soccer White G01   0   1   5  34  60
So Cal Blues Baker G01              78  19   3   0   0


SoCal National Cup Bracket B
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Liverpool Premier Burton G01     4  12  26  29  29
Real So Cal White G01           53  30  11   4   1
Simi Valley Eclipse G01          3   9  21  29  37
Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01   4  11  25  30  30
So Cal Blues Kale G01           36  37  17   7   3


SoCal National Cup Bracket C
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Arsenal FC San Diego Premier G01    6  14  20  28  32
Celtic Academy G01                  5  11  17  27  40
Slammers FC G01                    19  26  24  19  12
Strikers FC Cerittos Martinez G01  18  26  25  19  12
Carlsbad Lightning Red G01         52  24  13   7   3


SoCal National Cup Bracket D
                                    1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
FC Golden State G01                   3  14  23  29  31
Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01       16  41  24  13   6
Strikers FC Melendez G01              2  11  21  29  37
Rebels Soccer Club Gold Marquez G01   4  17  27  27  25
LA Galaxy South Bay Gold G01         76  18   5   2   0


SoCal National Cup Bracket E
                                1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
FRAM Soccer Club G01              0   2  11  62  26
Legends FC G01                   23  50  25   3   0
San Diego Surf SC Academy I G01   7  25  56  11   1
Claremont Stars G01               0   0   2  25  73
Eagles SC G01                    70  23   6   0   0


SoCal National Cup Bracket F
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Eagles SC White G01            3  20  25  27  26
LA Galaxy South Bay Navy G01   3  19  24  26  27
Westside Breakers White G01    7  33  26  20  15
Legends FC Black G01           2  16  22  26  33
West Coast FC G01             85  11   3   1   0


SoCal National Cup Bracket G
                                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Canyon FC G01                             4  12  26  31  28
San Diego SC Academy Navy G01            32  40  18   8   3
West Coast FC United G01                  2   7  18  28  45
Carlsbad Wave FC Black G01                5  14  29  30  23
Anaheim Surf White- Canyon PSA Blue G01  58  28  10   4   1


SoCal National Cup Bracket H
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Fullerton Rangers White G01    55  29  11   4   1
Hotspurs Premier G01            6  16  33  30  16
West Coast FC United Blue G01   1   3  11  25  59
Legends FC South G01            4  12  27  35  22
Arsenal FC G01                 34  40  18   7   2

Simulating the 2014 So Cal G01 President's Cup Preliminary Rounds

Click here to see a webpage of this, where you can click team name and go directly to the team's match history.

So Cal Presidents Bracket A
                                 1st 2nd 3rd
Cerritos United SC G01            33  36  31
San Diego Surf SC Academy II G01  48  32  20
Hotspurs Red G01                  19  31  49


SoCal Presidents Bracket B
                                     1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eagles SC Blue G01                    31  29  24  16
Pateadores MV G01                     35  29  22  14
Temecula Valley SC Hawks Academy G01   8  16  27  50
UIFC Fierce G01                       26  27  27  20


SoCal Presidents Bracket C
                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Coronado YSL Select G01  51  29  14   6
IE Surf Graff G01         6  14  28  52
Exiles SC White G01      30  34  23  12
United FC Black G01      13  23  34  30


SoCal Presidents Bracket D
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Beach FC Redondo G01            63  24  10   3
Roadrunner United FC G01         5  15  29  51
San Diego Crusaders SC Red G01  10  24  35  31
San Diego Surf SC Prem G01      22  37  27  14


SoCal Presidents Bracket E
                                         1st 2nd 3rd 4th
HG Eagles G01                             27  38  27   8
LA Premier FC Black G01                    1   6  20  72
Irvine Slammers Woodcock - FC Blades G01  57  28  13   3
LA Galaxy South Bay Gray G01              15  28  40  17


SoCal Presidents Bracket F
                                   1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Beach FC White G01                  23  24  26  27
IE Surf Vigil G01                   26  27  25  22
Pateadores IER -Los Gauchos SC G01  36  27  21  16
Slammers FC Maroon G01              15  21  28  36


SoCal Presidents Bracket G
                                       1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Legends FC Riverside G01                 2   9  31  58
Pateadores HB Carroll G01               31  46  18   6
Real So Cal Blue G01                    62  28   8   2
Rebels Soccer Club White Hernandez G01   5  17  44  34


SoCal Presidents Bracket H
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Conejo Valley United Blue G01   6  19  43  32
Newbury Park Panthers G01       2  10  30  58
Carlsbad Lightning Black G01   26  46  21   8
Legends FC Los Angeles G01     66  25   7   2


SoCal Presidents Bracket I
                                       1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Anaheim Surf Blue - Canyon PSA Red G01  37  51  10   2
Manhattan Beach Sand and Surf G01       60  34   5   1
Murrieta Surf White G01                  2  11  53  33
Yucaipa Athletic SC Spartans G01         1   4  31  64


SoCal Presidents Bracket J
                               1st 2nd 3rd
San Diego Football Academy G01  28  32  40
San Diego SC Orange G01         29  35  36
FC Golden State Black G01       43  33  24


SoCal Presidents Bracket K
                                       1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Del Mar Carmel Valley Sharks White G01   4  12  25  59
Fullerton Rangers Blue G01              56  27  13   4
LA Premier FC G01                       24  34  28  14
Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01          16  27  34  23


SoCal Presidents Bracket L
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Downey FC City G01                 72  24   4   0
Rebels Soccer Club Blue Lopez G01   0   3  19  78
Santa Barbara SC White G01          4  19  58  19
UIFC Norwalk United G01            24  54  19   3


SoCal Presidents Bracket M
                                1st 2nd 3rd 4th
So Cal Athletic Stanwood G01     29  27  24  20
Strikers FC Kephart G01          23  24  26  28
Albion SC White G01              21  24  26  29
LA Premier FC Santa Clarita G01  28  25  24  23


SoCal Presidents Bracket N
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Beach FC Gold G01              69  24   6   1
Poway Vaqueros Green G01        4  17  42  37
Cypress FC Premier Black G01    2  11  33  54
Laguna Hills Eclipse Blue G01  24  48  20   8


SoCal Presidents Bracket O
                              1st 2nd 3rd
Crown City United G01          36  48  16
Milan SC Black G01             60  32   8
San Diego United FC Black G01   5  20  75

G01 OPL state cup predictions

April 22, 2013: Updated with results marked in green and on right.

Here are the G01 simulations for the prelim rounds:

OPL schedule page 

G01 OPL Cup semis predictions
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/19/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/28/2013 CFC Red G01 vs Eastside Timbers Red G01, HW 51%, AW 30%, T 19%, pred score 2.6-2
04/28/2013 FC Portland Navy G01 vs Lake Oswego SC Storm G01, HW 97%, AW 1%, T 2%, pred score 5.9-0.8
 

individual game predictions are here

A
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th  
FC Portland Navy G01       49  31  15   5   0  1st
Eastside Timbers Red G01   36  36  20   8   0  2nd
THUSC Element G01          11  23  38  26   2  4th
WUSC Levante White G01      3  10  26  55   6  3rd
Westside Timbers Copa G01   0   0   1   7  92  5th


B
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
CFC Red G01                    72  22   5   0   0  1st
Westside Timbers Copa TS G01   22  49  23   4   1  2nd
EMFC Cypress Blue G01           6  25  50  14   4  3nd
Lake Oswego SC Storm G01        0   2  12  44  42  4th

Valley Futball Club Glory G01   0   1   9  37  53  5th

WA G01 Challenge Cup Predictions

Scroll down for Div 2

4/20/2013 Updated with quarter-final predictions

G01 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 (WSYSA schedules and results)
Individual games predictions 

G01 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 finals 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/19/2013
---------------------------------------------

04/28/2013 WA Rush Nike G01 vs Seattle United Copa G01, HW 18%, AW 58%, T 24%, pred score 0.8-1.7 
 
G01 WA Challenge Cup Div 1 semis 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/19/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 Seattle United Copa G01 vs Eastside FC Red G01, HW 58%, AW 19%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-0.9  actual: HW (2-0)
04/27/2013 WPFC Black G01 vs WA Rush Nike G01, HW 92%, AW 2%, T 6%, pred score 3.5-0.4  actual: AW (0-2)
 

Quarter-final predictions

04/20/2013 Crossfire Premier A Schmetzer G01 vs WA Rush Nike G01, HW 69%, AW 15% (0-2), T 16%, pred score 2.7-1.2
04/20/2013 Eastside FC Red G01 vs Vancouver Timbers Red G01, HW 59% (3-0), AW 21%, T 20%, pred score 2.2-1.3
04/20/2013 Seattle United Copa G01 vs Harbor Premier G01, HW 45% (3-1), AW 24%, T 31%, pred score 1.1-0.7
04/21/2013 WPFC Black G01 vs NWN Red G01, HW 99% (3-0), AW 0%, T 1%, pred score 5.8-0.2

Bracket simulations (results in green and to left) 

A
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Marysville Force G01            0   5  20  75   3rd with 12 pts
WPFC Black G01                100   0   0   0   1st with 29 pts
Vancouver Timbers Red G01       0  65  29   6   2nd with 19 pts
Crossfire Premier B Vadim G01   0  30  51  19   4th with 1 pt


B
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th
PacNW Maroon G01                    8  24  40  29  3rd with 12 pts
Crossfire Premier A Schmetzer G01  67  24   8   2  1st with 22 pts
Snohomish Black G01                 3  12  28  57  4th with 5pts
Harbor Premier G01                 23  41  25  12  2nd with 17 pts


C
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Seattle United Copa G01      73  19   6   2   0  1st with 38 pts
Vancouver Timbers White G01   3  14  27  44  12
PacNW Blue G01                8  27  35  25   5  3rd with 19 pts
WA Rush Nike G01             16  39  27  14   2  2nd with 32 pts
Three Rivers SC Black G01     0   1   3  15  81


D
                    1st 2nd 3rd 4th
CWSA Bravery G01      0   7  27  66   4th with 0 pts
Eastside FC Red G01  84  14   2   0   1st with 38 pts
NWN Red G01           3  22  48  27   2nd with 18 pts
FC Alliance A G01    13  58  23   7   3rd with 10 pts

---------------------------------------------------------

G01 WA Challenge Cup Div 2 (WSYSA schedule and results) 
 
G01 WA Challenge Cup Div 2 semis 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/19/2013
--------------------------------------------- 
04/28/2013 PacNW White G01 vs WPFC White G01, HW 13%, AW 73%, T 14%, pred score 1.3-3
 



G01 WA Challenge Cup Div 2 semis 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/19/2013
---------------------------------------------
04/27/2013 Eastside FC White G01 vs WPFC White G01, HW 38%, AW 40%, T 22%, pred score 1.8-1.8  actual: AW (1-2)
04/27/2013 PacNW White G01 vs WA Rush Swoosh G01, HW 14%, AW 67%, T 19%, pred score 0.9-2.2  actual: HW (2-1)
 
Quarter-finals predictions

04/20/2013 Eastside FC White G01 vs RV Slammers Orange G01, HW 26% (2-1), AW 46%, T 28%, pred score 0.9-1.3
04/20/2013 Pacific FC White G01 vs WPFC White G01, HW 10%, AW 77% (0-3), T 13%, pred score 1.1-3.1
04/20/2013 PacNW White G01 vs Sun City Strikers Red G01, HW 55% (3-1), AW 24%, T 21%, pred score 2.2-1.4
04/20/2013 WA Rush Swoosh G01 vs Seattle United Tango G01, HW 68% (2-0), AW 15%, T 17%, pred score 2.6-1.2
 

Bracket simulations (actual results in green and to right)

Individual game predictions
 
A
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Crossfire Premier E Dolan G01   0   4  40  56  4th
Eastside FC Blue G01            1   8  48  42  3rd
Sun City Strikers Red G01      27  61  10   2  2nd
PacNW White G01                71  26   2   0  1st


B
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Eastside FC Grey G01            0   0  29  34  37
RV Slammers Orange G01         60  39   1   0   0
Crossfire Premier D Godoy G01   0   0  28  34  38
WA Rush Swoosh G01             39  59   1   0   0
Westsound FC Black G01          0   1  42  32  25


C
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Seattle United Samba G01        0   4  22  34  40  4th
WA Rush Classic G01             0   4  21  34  42  5th
Crossfire Premier C James G01  19  62  14   4   1  2nd
WPFC Navy G01                   1  11  42  28  18  3rd
Eastside FC White G01          79  19   2   0   0  1st


D
                         1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Harbor Premier Green G01  31  28  22  13   7  3rd
Pacific FC White G01      23  26  25  17   9  1st
FWFC Blue G01             37  27  19  11   5  2nd
NWN Blue G01               3   7  14  27  49  5th
Snohomish Red G01          6  12  20  31  30  45h


E
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Seattle United Tango G01       9  48  29  13   0   2nd
Westsound FC Red G01           1  13  28  53   5   4th
Highline Premier FC Blue G01   4  28  40  28   1   3rd
PacNW Gold G01                 0   0   0   6  94   5th
WPFC White G01                86  12   2   0   0   1st

SoCal G01 President's Rounds of 64 to Semis predictions

2/25/13 I updated round of 16, 32 and 64 predictions with results

3/3/13 I updated with qtr finals results and semis predictions.

Finals: So Cal Blues Baker vs West Coast FC.  So Cal Blue Baker won 1-0

Semi-Finals Link to Cal South Soccer Semis page

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 03/03/2013
---------------------------------------------
03/03/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Carlsbad Lightning Red G01, HW 91%, AW 1%, T 8%, pred score 2.8-0.2  actual: HW (3-0)
03/03/2013 Arsenal FC G01 vs West Coast FC G01, HW 38%, AW 30%, T 32%, pred score 1-0.9  actual: AW (1-2)

Quarter Final Link to Cal South Soccer Qtr Final page

Note(3/3/13): I didn't have time to include the round of 64,32, and 16 games when I ran these predictions.  If I had, Carlsbad Lightnings' probability would have been higher since you can see in the earlier rounds that they have been consistently doing better than expected.

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/04/2013
---------------------------------------------
03/02/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs West Coast FC G01, HW 61%, AW 14%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-0.6 actual: T (0-0) AW on PK
03/02/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 25%, AW 39%, T 36%, pred score 0.6-0.9 actual AW (0-3)
03/02/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Canyon PSA Blue G01, HW 95%, AW 1%, T 4%, pred score 3.8-0.3 actual: HW (3-0)
03/02/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs Eagles SC G01, HW 8%, AW 76%, T 16%, pred score 0.7-2.4 actual: HW: (2-1)

Round of 16 Link to Cal South Soccer Round of 16 page

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/04/2013
---------------------------------------------
02/24/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01, HW 42%, AW 29%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-1  actual: HW (2-1)
02/24/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Hotspurs Premier G01, HW 62%, AW 14%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-0.7  actual: HW (2-1)
02/24/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs Eagles SC White G01, HW 74%, AW 8%, T 18%, pred score 2.1-0.5  actual: HW (1-0)
02/24/2013 BYSC Corona United Blue G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 8%, AW 73%, T 19%, pred score 0.5-2  actual: AW (0-1)
02/24/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs West Coast FC United G01, HW 54%, AW 26%, T 20%, pred score 2.2-1.5  actual: T (1-1) AW on PK
02/24/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs San Diego Surf SC Premier G01, HW 97%, AW 0%, T 3%, pred score 4.1-0.2  actual: HW (5-0)
02/24/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs San Diego Surf SC White G01, HW 38%, AW 28%, T 33%, pred score 1-0.8  actual: HW (1-0)
02/24/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 56%, AW 24%, T 20%, pred score 2.2-1.4  actual: HW (3-0)

Round of 32  Link to Cal South Soccer Round of 32 page

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/04/2013
---------------------------------------------
02/23/2013 Eagles SC White G01 vs Avengers SC Blue G01, HW 83%, AW 6%, T 11%, pred score 3.1-0.8  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Black G01 vs BYSC Corona United Blue G01, HW 7%, AW 75%, T 18%, pred score 0.4-2  actual: AW (0-1)
02/23/2013 Canyon FC G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 2%, AW 89%, T 9%, pred score 0.3-2.9  actual: AW (1-2)
02/23/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs FC Golden State G01, HW 62%, AW 12%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-0.5  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Westside Breakers White G01 vs Hotspurs Premier G01, HW 30%, AW 48%, T 22%, pred score 1.6-2  actual: AW (0-2)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Manchester SC Gold G01, HW 64%, AW 12%, T 24%, pred score 1.6-0.5  actual: HW (3-1)
02/23/2013 Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01 vs Downey FC City G01, HW 92%, AW 2%, T 6%, pred score 3.6-0.4  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs Slammers FC G01, HW 90%, AW 2%, T 8%, pred score 3-0.3  actual: HW (2-0)
02/24/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Simi Valley Eclipse G01, HW 98%, AW 0%, T 2%, pred score 4.6-0.2  actual: HW (3-0)
02/24/2013 Strikers FC Carroll G01 vs West Coast FC United G01, HW 13%, AW 64%, T 23%, pred score 0.6-1.7  actual: AW (1-2)
02/24/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01, HW 89%, AW 4%, T 7%, pred score 3.9-0.8  actual: HW (6-1)
02/24/2013 San Diego SC Elite White G01 vs San Diego Surf SC Premier G01, HW 18%, AW 57%, T 25%, pred score 0.8-1.6  actual: AW (0-1)
02/24/2013 Legends FC G01 vs Carlsbad Lightning Red G01, HW 66%, AW 15%, T 20%, pred score 2.1-0.9  actual: T (0-0) AW on PK
02/24/2013 San Diego SC Elite Navy G01 vs San Diego Surf SC White G01, HW 1%, AW 97%, T 2%, pred score 0.3-4.7  actual: AW (0-4)
02/24/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs Fullerton Rangers White G01, HW 27%, AW 36%, T 37%, pred score 0.7-0.8  actual: HW (2-0)
02/24/2013 Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 47%, AW 26%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1  actual: AW (0-1)

Round of 64 Link to Cal South Soccer Round of 64 page

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/18/2013
---------------------------------------------
02/23/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 25%, AW 38%, T 36%, pred score 0.6-0.9  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 Eagles SC White G01 vs Encinitas Express Soccer White G01, HW 82%, AW 6%, T 12%, pred score 2.7-0.6  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Black G01 vs Rebels Soccer Club Martinez G01, HW 31%, AW 37%, T 33%, pred score 0.8-1  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Canyon FC G01 vs Legends FC South G01, HW 12%, AW 67%, T 21%, pred score 0.7-1.9  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Arsenal FC G01 vs Temecula Valley SC Hawks Black G01, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 10.2-0.2  actual: HW (4-0)
02/23/2013 Claremont Stars G01 vs BYSC Corona United Blue G01, HW 21%, AW 51%, T 28%, pred score 0.8-1.4  actual: AW (0-2)
02/23/2013 Avengers SC Blue G01 vs Fullerton Rangers Blue G01, HW 26%, AW 46%, T 28%, pred score 0.9-1.3  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 FC Golden State G01 vs Carlsbad Wave FC Black G01, HW 87%, AW 4%, T 9%, pred score 3.3-0.7  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs Real So Cal White G01, HW 69%, AW 10%, T 21%, pred score 1.8-0.5  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Slammers FC G01 vs Rebels Soccer Club Lopez G01, HW 47%, AW 23%, T 30%, pred score 1.2-0.8  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01 vs Manhattan Beach Sand and Surf G01, HW 97%, AW 1%, T 3%, pred score 4.5-0.3  actual: HW (5-1)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Strikers FC Macias G01, HW 40%, AW 25%, T 35%, pred score 0.9-0.7  actual: HW (2-1)
02/23/2013 Hotspurs Premier G01 vs Coronado YSL Select G01, HW 73%, AW 10%, T 17%, pred score 2.2-0.7  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC United Blue G01 vs Westside Breakers White G01, HW 32%, AW 48%, T 20%, pred score 1.8-2.3  actual: AW (0-2)
02/23/2013 South Bay Force Blue G01 vs Manchester SC Gold G01, HW 18%, AW 58%, T 25%, pred score 0.8-1.6  actual: T (0-0)
02/23/2013 Conejo Valley United Blue G01 vs Downey FC City G01, HW 16%, AW 63%, T 21%, pred score 1-2.1  actual: AW (0-1)
02/23/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Exiles SC Red G01, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 8.8-0  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego SC Elite White G01 vs Santa Barbara SC White G01, HW 36%, AW 40%, T 24%, pred score 1.5-1.6  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs Freedom FC G01, HW 93%, AW 2%, T 5%, pred score 3.8-0.4  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Strikers FC Carroll G01 vs Legends FC Riverside G01, HW 63%, AW 9%, T 28%, pred score 1.4-0.3  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC United G01 vs Poway Vaqueros Green G01, HW 99%, AW 0%, T 1%, pred score 6-0.5  actual: HW (5-0)
02/23/2013 Real So Cal Blue G01 vs Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01, HW 32%, AW 43%, T 24%, pred score 1.4-1.6  actual: T (0-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego Surf SC Premier G01 vs Strikers FC Petrus G01, HW 65%, AW 13%, T 22%, pred score 1.8-0.7  actual: HW (3-1)
02/23/2013 Simi Valley Eclipse G01 vs Olimpia SC G01, HW 40%, AW 32%, T 28%, pred score 1.3-1.1  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Legends FC G01 vs FRAM Soccer Club G01, HW 74%, AW 9%, T 17%, pred score 2.3-0.6  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs San Diego Football Academy G01, HW 98%, AW 1%, T 2%, pred score 5.7-0.6  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 Los Gauchos SC G01 vs Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01, HW 4%, AW 84%, T 12%, pred score 0.5-2.7  actual: AW (0-1)
02/23/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs LA Premier FC G01, HW 87%, AW 3%, T 11%, pred score 2.5-0.3  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego Surf SC White G01 vs California Soccer Academy Cypress Black G01, HW 84%, AW 4%, T 12%, pred score 2.5-0.4  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego SC Elite Navy G01 vs Pateadoes MV G01, HW 24%, AW 60%, T 17%, pred score 2-3  actual: HW (2-1)
02/23/2013 Slammers FC Maroon G01 vs Fullerton Rangers White G01, HW 1%, AW 96%, T 3%, pred score 0.2-4  actual: T (0-0)
02/23/2013 Hotspurs Red G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 4%, AW 89%, T 7%, pred score 0.7-3.6  actual: T (0-0)

Simulating the 2013 SoCal G01 President's Preliminary Rounds

Here I simulated the preliminary rounds for the SoCal G01 President's Cup (State Cup). This uses a league points rule (3 for win; 1 for tie). I used just a GD tie-breaker (2nd tie-breaker used) instead of a head-to-head (1st tie breaker used) since the GD tie-breaker was easy to implement and I assume they are fairly correlated. After the preliminary rounds, the 4th place teams are dropped as teams enter a round of 64. Predictions for the individual games are at the bottom (scroll way down).

Updated Jan 14, 2013.  I accidentally used a GD max for the tie breaker of 10 goals rather than 3 listed on the rules.

Updated Feb 18, 2013.  Added the results.  Green is finished 1st.  Yellow is finished 2nd.

Results from 10,000 simulated preliminary rounds.
Numbers are percent of simulated rounds where team was in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

Bracket A
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Celtic Hoops G01            25  60  14   1
Claremont Stars Black G01    0   1  17  81
Santa Barbara SC White G01   2  15  66  18
So Cal Blues Kale G01       72  24   3   0


Bracket B
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eagles SC White G01          72  27   1   0
Empire SC G01                 0   0   3  97
Poway Vaqueros Green G01      1   8  88   3
San Diego SC Elite Navy G01  27  65   8   0


Bracket C
                                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carlsbad Lightning Black G01                 14  27  32  28
California Soccer Academy Cypress Black G01  59  24  11   5
Freedom FC G01                                7  18  29  46
Slammers FC Maroon G01                       20  31  27  21


Bracket D
                         1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Canyon FC G01             62  25  10   3
Eagles SC Blue G01        14  30  35  21
Hotspurs Red G01          22  34  29  15
Legends FC Riverside G01   3  11  25  61


Bracket E
                                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arsenal FC G01                             100   0   0   0
California Soccer Academy Xtreme White G01   0   0   8  92
San Diego Football Academy G01               0  23  70   7
Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01               0  76  23   1


Bracket F
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Albion SC White G01         0   1  10  89
Olimpia SC G01              3  78  18   1
Pateadoes MV G01            0  18  72   9
South Bay Force Quigs G01  97   3   0   0


Bracket G
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01  49  35  12   3
Coronado YSL Select G01          6  17  42  35
Real So Cal Blue G01             3   9  31  57
Slammers FC G01                 42  39  15   5


Bracket H
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arsenal FC South G01             0   0   5  95
Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01  94   5   0   0
LA Premier FC G01                2  36  59   4
San Diego Surf SC Premier G01    4  59  36   1


Bracket I
                                       1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Del Mar Carmel Valley Sharks White G01   0   0  18  82
Fullerton Rangers White G01             74  26   0   0
Strikers FC Petrus G01                   0   3  79  18
West Coast FC G01                       26  71   3   0


Bracket J
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
FRAM Soccer Club G01           19  31  45   4
Simi Valley Eclipse G01        31  36  30   2
Hotspurs Premier G01           50  32  18   1
Laguna Hills Eclipse Blue G01   0   1   7  92


Bracket K
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carlsbad Wave FC Black G01    0  11  42  47
FC Blades G01                 0  11  41  48
So Cal Blues Baker G01      100   0   0   0
Westside Breakers White G01   0  78  17   4


Bracket L
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Beach FC White G01              1   4  23  72
West Coast FC United Blue G01  57  33   9   1
Fullerton Rangers Blue G01      6  18  53  23
San Diego SC Elite White G01   37  44  15   3


Bracket M
                                1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Canyon PSA Blue G01              89  10   1   0
Rebels Soccer Club Martinez G01   0   6  29  64
So Cal Athletic Stanwood G01      1  17  50  31
South Bay Force Blue G01         10  66  20   5


Bracket N
                                   1st 2nd 3rd
Temecula Valley SC Hawks Black G01   4  13  83
Strikers FC Carroll G01             46  46   8
Conejo Valley United Blue G01       49  41   9


Bracket O
                                1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Legends FC South G01             51  32  16   2
Manchester SC Gold G01           14  28  48   9
LA Premier FC Santa Clarita G01   0   2  12  86
West Coast FC United G01         34  38  24   3


Bracket P
                                   1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Downey FC City G01                   1  66  27   6
Exiles SC Red G01                    0   5  21  74
Encinitas Express Soccer White G01   0  28  52  20
Legends FC G01                      99   1   0   0


Bracket Q
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carlsbad Lightning Red G01         80  18   2   0
San Diego United FC Black G01       0   2  16  82
Claremont Stars G01                18  63  17   2
Manhattan Beach Sand and Surf G01   2  17  65  16


Bracket R
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arsenal FC White G01           6  17  36  41
Avengers SC Blue G01           5  16  33  45
Los Gauchos SC G01            25  41  23  11
Rebels Soccer Club Lopez G01  64  25   8   2


Bracket S
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eagles SC G01                77  19   4   0
San Diego Surf SC G01         0   1   7  92
BYSC Corona United Blue G01   6  27  61   6
Strikers FC Macias G01       17  53  28   2


Bracket T
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Real So Cal White G01        17  66  17   1
Tustin United G01             0   0   8  92
FC Golden State G01           2  17  74   7
San Diego Surf SC White G01  81  17   2   0

Game Predictions H vs A
% are the model probabilities for various match outcomes.  'pred score' is the mean predicted score H-A
------------------------------------

Bracket A

02/09/2013 Celtic Hoops G01 vs So Cal Blues Kale G01, HW 16%, AW 58%, T 26%, pred score 0.7-1.5
02/09/2013 Claremont Stars Black G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 3%, AW 89%, T 8%, pred score 0.5-3.2
02/09/2013 Santa Barbara SC White G01 vs Claremont Stars Black G01, HW 67%, AW 13%, T 20%, pred score 2-0.8
02/09/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs Santa Barbara SC White G01, HW 83%, AW 5%, T 13%, pred score 2.5-0.4
02/10/2013 Claremont Stars Black G01 vs So Cal Blues Kale G01, HW 1%, AW 93%, T 5%, pred score 0.2-3.3
02/10/2013 Santa Barbara SC White G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 13%, AW 70%, T 17%, pred score 0.9-2.4 

Bracket B 

02/09/2013 Eagles SC White G01 vs Poway Vaqueros Green G01, HW 92%, AW 2%, T 6%, pred score 3.7-0.5
02/09/2013 Empire SC G01 vs San Diego SC Elite Navy G01, HW 0%, AW 100%, T 0%, pred score 0.3-6.5
02/09/2013 Poway Vaqueros Green G01 vs Empire SC G01, HW 86%, AW 4%, T 10%, pred score 2.9-0.4
02/09/2013 San Diego SC Elite Navy G01 vs Eagles SC White G01, HW 21%, AW 58%, T 21%, pred score 1.2-2.1
02/10/2013 Eagles SC White G01 vs Empire SC G01, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 9.2-0.2
02/10/2013 Poway Vaqueros Green G01 vs San Diego SC Elite Navy G01, HW 7%, AW 80%, T 13%, pred score 0.7-2.6 

Bracket C 

02/09/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Black G01 vs Freedom FC G01, HW 38%, AW 26%, T 36%, pred score 0.9-0.7
02/09/2013 California Soccer Academy Cypress Black G01 vs Carlsbad Lightning Black G01, HW 53%, AW 15%, T 32%, pred score 1.2-0.5
02/09/2013 Freedom FC G01 vs Slammers FC Maroon G01, HW 23%, AW 48%, T 29%, pred score 0.8-1.3
02/09/2013 Slammers FC Maroon G01 vs California Soccer Academy Cypress Black G01, HW 19%, AW 54%, T 27%, pred score 0.7-1.4
02/10/2013 Freedom FC G01 vs California Soccer Academy Cypress Black G01, HW 11%, AW 66%, T 23%, pred score 0.5-1.7
02/10/2013 Slammers FC Maroon G01 vs Carlsbad Lightning Black G01, HW 37%, AW 28%, T 35%, pred score 0.9-0.7 

Bracket D 

02/09/2013 Canyon FC G01 vs Eagles SC Blue G01, HW 55%, AW 16%, T 30%, pred score 1.3-0.5
02/09/2013 Eagles SC Blue G01 vs Legends FC Riverside G01, HW 49%, AW 19%, T 32%, pred score 1.1-0.6
02/09/2013 Hotspurs Red G01 vs Canyon FC G01, HW 18%, AW 60%, T 21%, pred score 1-2
02/09/2013 Legends FC Riverside G01 vs Hotspurs Red G01, HW 15%, AW 64%, T 21%, pred score 0.9-2
02/10/2013 Canyon FC G01 vs Legends FC Riverside G01, HW 71%, AW 7%, T 21%, pred score 1.8-0.4
02/10/2013 Eagles SC Blue G01 vs Hotspurs Red G01, HW 32%, AW 43%, T 25%, pred score 1.2-1.5 

Bracket E 

02/09/2013 Arsenal FC G01 vs Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01, HW 98%, AW 0%, T 2%, pred score 5-0.3
02/09/2013 California Soccer Academy Xtreme White G01 vs San Diego Football Academy G01, HW 6%, AW 82%, T 12%, pred score 0.6-2.8
02/09/2013 San Diego Football Academy G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 0%, AW 100%, T 0%, pred score 0.2-6.7
02/09/2013 Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01 vs California Soccer Academy Xtreme White G01, HW 93%, AW 2%, T 5%, pred score 3.8-0.5
02/10/2013 California Soccer Academy Xtreme White G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 0%, AW 100%, T 0%, pred score 0.1-9.4
02/10/2013 San Diego Football Academy G01 vs Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01, HW 19%, AW 63%, T 17%, pred score 1.5-2.7 

Bracket F 

02/09/2013 Albion SC White G01 vs South Bay Force Quigs G01, HW 0%, AW 100%, T 0%, pred score 0.1-6.5
02/09/2013 Olimpia SC G01 vs Pateadoes MV G01, HW 66%, AW 15%, T 19%, pred score 2.3-1
02/10/2013 Albion SC White G01 vs Olimpia SC G01, HW 3%, AW 83%, T 14%, pred score 0.2-2.2
02/10/2013 Olimpia SC G01 vs South Bay Force Quigs G01, HW 3%, AW 82%, T 15%, pred score 0.2-2.1
02/10/2013 Pateadoes MV G01 vs Albion SC White G01, HW 84%, AW 5%, T 11%, pred score 3-0.7
02/10/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs Pateadoes MV G01, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 6.8-0.3 

Bracket G 

02/09/2013 Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01 vs Slammers FC G01, HW 39%, AW 30%, T 31%, pred score 1.1-0.9
02/09/2013 Coronado YSL Select G01 vs Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01, HW 12%, AW 65%, T 23%, pred score 0.6-1.7
02/09/2013 Real So Cal Blue G01 vs Coronado YSL Select G01, HW 29%, AW 46%, T 25%, pred score 1.2-1.5
02/09/2013 Slammers FC G01 vs Real So Cal Blue G01, HW 74%, AW 10%, T 16%, pred score 2.4-0.7
02/10/2013 Coronado YSL Select G01 vs Slammers FC G01, HW 14%, AW 65%, T 21%, pred score 0.8-1.9
02/10/2013 Real So Cal Blue G01 vs Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01, HW 8%, AW 73%, T 18%, pred score 0.5-2.1 

Bracket H 

02/09/2013 Arsenal FC South G01 vs LA Premier FC G01, HW 5%, AW 83%, T 13%, pred score 0.4-2.5
02/09/2013 Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01 vs San Diego Surf SC Premier G01, HW 86%, AW 4%, T 10%, pred score 3.1-0.5
02/10/2013 Arsenal FC South G01 vs San Diego Surf SC Premier G01, HW 2%, AW 92%, T 6%, pred score 0.4-3.5
02/10/2013 LA Premier FC G01 vs Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01, HW 2%, AW 90%, T 8%, pred score 0.4-3.2
02/10/2013 Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01 vs Arsenal FC South G01, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 8.7-0.2
02/10/2013 San Diego Surf SC Premier G01 vs LA Premier FC G01, HW 45%, AW 26%, T 29%, pred score 1.3-0.9 

Bracket I 

02/09/2013 Del Mar Carmel Valley Sharks White G01 vs West Coast FC G01, HW 0%, AW 95%, T 4%, pred score 0.1-3.4
02/09/2013 Fullerton Rangers White G01 vs Del Mar Carmel Valley Sharks White G01, HW 99%, AW 0%, T 1%, pred score 4.9-0.1
02/09/2013 Strikers FC Petrus G01 vs Fullerton Rangers White G01, HW 1%, AW 96%, T 4%, pred score 0.2-3.8
02/09/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Strikers FC Petrus G01, HW 87%, AW 3%, T 11%, pred score 2.6-0.3
02/10/2013 Strikers FC Petrus G01 vs Del Mar Carmel Valley Sharks White G01, HW 60%, AW 10%, T 30%, pred score 1.2-0.3
02/10/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Fullerton Rangers White G01, HW 18%, AW 52%, T 31%, pred score 0.6-1.2 

Bracket J 

02/09/2013 FRAM Soccer Club G01 vs Hotspurs Premier G01, HW 20%, AW 52%, T 28%, pred score 0.7-1.4
02/09/2013 Simi Valley Eclipse G01 vs Laguna Hills Eclipse Blue G01, HW 86%, AW 3%, T 11%, pred score 2.7-0.4
02/10/2013 FRAM Soccer Club G01 vs Simi Valley Eclipse G01, HW 28%, AW 44%, T 28%, pred score 1-1.3
02/10/2013 Hotspurs Premier G01 vs Laguna Hills Eclipse Blue G01, HW 89%, AW 2%, T 9%, pred score 2.8-0.3
02/10/2013 Laguna Hills Eclipse Blue G01 vs FRAM Soccer Club G01, HW 5%, AW 83%, T 12%, pred score 0.5-2.7
02/10/2013 Simi Valley Eclipse G01 vs Hotspurs Premier G01, HW 26%, AW 42%, T 33%, pred score 0.7-1 

Bracket K 

02/09/2013 Carlsbad Wave FC Black G01 vs So Cal Blues Baker G01, HW 0%, AW 100%, T 0%, pred score 0.1-14.3
02/09/2013 FC Blades G01 vs Westside Breakers White G01, HW 10%, AW 76%, T 14%, pred score 1.1-3
02/10/2013 Carlsbad Wave FC Black G01 vs FC Blades G01, HW 45%, AW 31%, T 24%, pred score 1.6-1.3
02/10/2013 FC Blades G01 vs So Cal Blues Baker G01, HW 0%, AW 100%, T 0%, pred score 0.1-10.4
02/10/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Westside Breakers White G01, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 11.6-0.2
02/10/2013 Westside Breakers White G01 vs Carlsbad Wave FC Black G01, HW 77%, AW 12%, T 11%, pred score 4.1-1.8 

Bracket L 

02/09/2013 Beach FC White G01 vs San Diego SC Elite White G01, HW 6%, AW 80%, T 14%, pred score 0.6-2.6
02/09/2013 West Coast FC United Blue G01 vs Fullerton Rangers Blue G01, HW 69%, AW 12%, T 20%, pred score 2.1-0.7
02/10/2013 Beach FC White G01 vs Fullerton Rangers Blue G01, HW 20%, AW 52%, T 27%, pred score 0.8-1.4
02/10/2013 Fullerton Rangers Blue G01 vs San Diego SC Elite White G01, HW 15%, AW 59%, T 25%, pred score 0.7-1.6
02/10/2013 San Diego SC Elite White G01 vs West Coast FC United Blue G01, HW 32%, AW 44%, T 24%, pred score 1.3-1.6
02/10/2013 West Coast FC United Blue G01 vs Beach FC White G01, HW 88%, AW 4%, T 8%, pred score 3.4-0.6 

Bracket M 

02/09/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs So Cal Athletic Stanwood G01, HW 91%, AW 3%, T 6%, pred score 3.9-0.6
02/09/2013 Rebels Soccer Club Martinez G01 vs Canyon PSA Blue G01, HW 1%, AW 97%, T 2%, pred score 0.6-5.3
02/09/2013 So Cal Athletic Stanwood G01 vs South Bay Force Blue G01, HW 17%, AW 65%, T 17%, pred score 1.3-2.5
02/09/2013 South Bay Force Blue G01 vs Rebels Soccer Club Martinez G01, HW 79%, AW 10%, T 12%, pred score 3.5-1.3
02/10/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs South Bay Force Blue G01, HW 79%, AW 9%, T 12%, pred score 3.2-1
02/10/2013 So Cal Athletic Stanwood G01 vs Rebels Soccer Club Martinez G01, HW 51%, AW 28%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.6 

Bracket N

02/09/2013 Temecula Valley SC Hawks Black G01 vs Strikers FC Carroll G01, HW 8%, AW 75%, T 17%, pred score 0.6-2.2
02/09/2013 Strikers FC Carroll G01 vs Conejo Valley United Blue G01, HW 35%, AW 34%, T 32%, pred score 1-0.9
02/10/2013 Temecula Valley SC Hawks Black G01 vs Conejo Valley United Blue G01, HW 7%, AW 79%, T 13%, pred score 0.7-2.7 

Bracket O 

02/09/2013 Legends FC South G01 vs West Coast FC United G01, HW 42%, AW 30%, T 28%, pred score 1.3-1
02/09/2013 Manchester SC Gold G01 vs LA Premier FC Santa Clarita G01, HW 72%, AW 9%, T 19%, pred score 2-0.6 

 02/10/2013 LA Premier FC Santa Clarita G01 vs Legends FC South G01, HW 3%, AW 88%, T 9%, pred score 0.4-3
02/10/2013 Legends FC South G01 vs Manchester SC Gold G01, HW 56%, AW 19%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-0.8
02/10/2013 Manchester SC Gold G01 vs West Coast FC United G01, HW 24%, AW 48%, T 28%, pred score 0.9-1.4
02/10/2013 West Coast FC United G01 vs LA Premier FC Santa Clarita G01, HW 83%, AW 5%, T 13%, pred score 2.6-0.5 

Bracket P 

02/09/2013 Downey FC City G01 vs Legends FC G01, HW 1%, AW 94%, T 5%, pred score 0.3-3.7
02/09/2013 Exiles SC Red G01 vs Downey FC City G01, HW 8%, AW 75%, T 17%, pred score 0.6-2.2
02/09/2013 Encinitas Express Soccer White G01 vs Exiles SC Red G01, HW 59%, AW 16%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-0.6
02/09/2013 Legends FC G01 vs Encinitas Express Soccer White G01, HW 97%, AW 0%, T 2%, pred score 4.3-0.2
02/10/2013 Downey FC City G01 vs Encinitas Express Soccer White G01, HW 53%, AW 23%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1
02/10/2013 Exiles SC Red G01 vs Legends FC G01, HW 0%, AW 99%, T 0%, pred score 0.1-5.8 

Bracket Q 

02/09/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs Claremont Stars G01, HW 61%, AW 16%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-0.8
02/09/2013 San Diego United FC Black G01 vs Manhattan Beach Sand and Surf G01, HW 12%, AW 57%, T 31%, pred score 0.4-1.2
02/10/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs San Diego United FC Black G01, HW 98%, AW 0%, T 2%, pred score 4.7-0.2
02/10/2013 Claremont Stars G01 vs Manhattan Beach Sand and Surf G01, HW 56%, AW 13%, T 30%, pred score 1.2-0.4
02/10/2013 Manhattan Beach Sand and Surf G01 vs Carlsbad Lightning Red G01, HW 4%, AW 85%, T 11%, pred score 0.4-2.7
02/10/2013 San Diego United FC Black G01 vs Claremont Stars G01, HW 3%, AW 83%, T 14%, pred score 0.2-2.2 

Bracket R 

02/09/2013 Arsenal FC White G01 vs Avengers SC Blue G01, HW 34%, AW 36%, T 30%, pred score 1-1.1
02/09/2013 Avengers SC Blue G01 vs Los Gauchos SC G01, HW 18%, AW 58%, T 24%, pred score 0.8-1.7
02/09/2013 Los Gauchos SC G01 vs Rebels Soccer Club Lopez G01, HW 17%, AW 49%, T 34%, pred score 0.5-1
02/09/2013 Rebels Soccer Club Lopez G01 vs Arsenal FC White G01, HW 65%, AW 8%, T 28%, pred score 1.4-0.3
02/10/2013 Arsenal FC White G01 vs Los Gauchos SC G01, HW 17%, AW 52%, T 30%, pred score 0.6-1.2
02/10/2013 Rebels Soccer Club Lopez G01 vs Avengers SC Blue G01, HW 73%, AW 7%, T 20%, pred score 1.9-0.4 

Bracket S 

02/09/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs BYSC Corona United Blue G01, HW 76%, AW 6%, T 18%, pred score 2-0.4
02/09/2013 San Diego Surf SC G01 vs Strikers FC Macias G01, HW 3%, AW 86%, T 11%, pred score 0.3-2.7
02/10/2013 BYSC Corona United Blue G01 vs San Diego Surf SC G01, HW 81%, AW 6%, T 13%, pred score 2.6-0.6
02/10/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs Strikers FC Macias G01, HW 55%, AW 12%, T 33%, pred score 1.1-0.4
02/10/2013 San Diego Surf SC G01 vs Eagles SC G01, HW 0%, AW 98%, T 2%, pred score 0.2-4.4
02/10/2013 Strikers FC Macias G01 vs BYSC Corona United Blue G01, HW 48%, AW 21%, T 31%, pred score 1.2-0.7 

Bracket T 

02/09/2013 Real So Cal White G01 vs FC Golden State G01, HW 65%, AW 14%, T 21%, pred score 1.9-0.7
02/09/2013 Tustin United G01 vs San Diego Surf SC White G01, HW 0%, AW 100%, T 0%, pred score 0.2-6.4
02/10/2013 FC Golden State G01 vs Tustin United G01, HW 79%, AW 7%, T 13%, pred score 2.7-0.7
02/10/2013 Real So Cal White G01 vs San Diego Surf SC White G01, HW 13%, AW 64%, T 23%, pred score 0.6-1.7
02/10/2013 San Diego Surf SC White G01 vs FC Golden State G01, HW 87%, AW 3%, T 9%, pred score 2.9-0.4
02/10/2013 Tustin United G01 vs Real So Cal White G01, HW 1%, AW 95%, T 4%, pred score 0.4-4.2