Thursday, April 17, 2014

2013-2014 Boys team strength across WA clubs

Following up on last years longer analysis of the strength of Washington clubs for boys,
here is an analysis of the strength of every select club's top boys team at U11-U18 in Washington.

Plot 1 shows and overview with Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC in red and every other club in black.  The green line is the median of all the black lines.


Plot 2 breaks this out by individual club.  This gives an overview of the types of teams difference clubs produce, what strength their A teams tends to be at, and whether the club fields teams at every age.

The red line is the median strength of the top teams at age in Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC. The are the four largest and strongest clubs in Washington and consistently produce a top 4 team across most every age. The dotted-red line is a strength -2 below the top team (or -200 on new scaling). The predicted goal ratio in a match-up between a team on the red line and one on the dotted red line is 4, so 4-1 or 8-2. So the red line team is heavily expected to win, but it would still be a somewhat competitive game. The green line is the median across all the top teams from every select club in Washington, except those top 4.

B02 at far left, B95 at far right. 
1pt difference is about the length of this hyphen - on this graph. Yes, small. Being 1 full pt stronger = scoring 2x as rapidly so is a significant advantage. So being on the green line versus slightly above it indicates a big difference in strength. The red line teams score about 80-100x more rapidly than the green line teams...







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