OR B96 OPL Cup predictions

B96 OPL Cup semis 
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 Oregon Rush Nike B96 vs EMFC Azzurri B96, HW 55%, AW 21%, T 24%, pred score 1.8-1
04/28/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B96 vs FC Portland Navy B96, HW 45%, AW 30%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.3

OR B97 OPL Predictions

B97 OPL Cup semis 
Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 OSSA Green II B97 vs OSSA Green I-WUSC Arsenal B97, HW 14%, AW 62%, T 24%, pred score 0.6-1.6
04/28/2013 WAFC Espana B97 vs BSC Portland Hood River B97, HW 30%, AW 52%, T 18%, pred score 2.2-2.8

B98 OPL State Cup predictions

B98 OPL Cup semis 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 FC Portland Navy B98 vs HSC Freeze B98, HW 72%, AW 11%, T 17%, pred score 2.4-0.8
04/28/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B98 vs CFC Real Madrid B98, HW 46%, AW 29%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-1.1 

B98 OPL Cup quarter finals
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
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04/27/2013 CFC Real Madrid B98 vs Thelo Cobras B98, HW 81%, AW 7%, T 12%, pred score 3-0.8
04/27/2013 FC Portland Navy B98 vs Lake Oswego SC Edge B98, HW 89%, AW 4%, T 8%, pred score 3.7-0.8
04/27/2013 NEU Gamban B98 vs HSC Freeze B98, HW 39%, AW 35%, T 26%, pred score 1.4-1.3
04/27/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B98 vs Eastside Timbers Red B98, HW 46%, AW 25%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-0.8

B99 OPL State Cup predictions

OPL schedule and scores

B99 OPL Cup semis
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 CFC Galacticos B99 vs Westside Timbers Copa B99, HW 50%, AW 29%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.6
04/28/2013 Hood River Dynamos Blue B99 vs FC Portland Navy B99, HW 30%, AW 47%, T 23%, pred score 1.4-1.8
 

B99 OPL Cup quarter finals
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
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04/27/2013 CFC Galacticos B99 vs Southside SC Barcelona B99, HW 90%, AW 3%, T 7%, pred score 3.4-0.5 (1-0)
04/27/2013 Eastside Timbers Red B99 vs FC Portland Navy B99, HW 4%, AW 86%, T 10%, pred score 0.5-2.9 (0-2)
04/27/2013 Hood River Dynamos Blue B99 vs NEU Galazios B99, HW 92%, AW 3%, T 5%, pred score 4.2-0.8 (3-0)
04/27/2013 Oregon Rush Nike B99 vs Westside Timbers Copa B99, HW 4%, AW 90%, T 6%, pred score 1-4.4 (0-6)

Prelims predictions (green shows actual result in terms of bracket standing)
Result of 10,000 simulated preliminary rounds.  Numbers are percent of time that team finishes in that place.   Bracket D missing due to code glitch.  Based on model fit to games up to start of prelims.

Flight A
                           1st 2nd 3rd
CFC Galacticos B99          50  43   7
FC Portland Navy B99        48  44   8
Westside Timbers Samba B99   3  13  85


Flight B
                          1st 2nd 3rd
Westside Timbers Copa B99  93   7   0
Eastside Timbers Red B99    7  82  11
EMFC Celtic B99             0  11  89


Flight C
                            1st 2nd 3rd
Hood River Dynamos Blue B99  95   5   0
Southside SC Barcelona B99    4  62  34
THUSC Argon B99               1  33  66 

B00 OR OPL State Cup Predictions

April 22, 2013: Updated with actual results
April 26, 2013: Updated with quarter final predictions

OPL schedule and scores 

Semi finals predictions

B00 OPL Cup semis 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 FC Portland Navy B00 vs Eastside Timbers Red B00, HW 89%, AW 4%, T 6%, pred score 4.4-1.1
04/28/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B00 vs WAFC Real Madrid B00, HW 40%, AW 38%, T 22%, pred score 1.8-1.8

  

Quarter finals predictions

Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
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04/27/2013 Eastside Timbers Red B00 vs Oregon Rush Nike B00, HW 68%, AW 15%, T 17%, pred score 2.7-1.2
04/27/2013 FC Portland Navy B00 vs Southside SC Azzuri B00, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 10%, pred score 3.3-0.8
04/27/2013 WAFC Real Madrid B00 vs PCU Red B00, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 9%, pred score 3.4-0.8
04/27/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B00 vs BSC Portland Black B00, HW 68%, AW 15%, T 17%, pred score 2.6-1.2
 

Prelims predictions 

Here's my model's predictions based on 10,000 simulated prelim rounds. Numbers in the table are percent of simulations with that place result.

Flight A
                     1st 2nd 3rd
FC Portland Navy B00  98   2   0   1st 6 pts, GD 7
PCU Red B00            2  87  12   2nd 3 pts, GD 0
EMFC Rovers Blue B00   0  11  88


Flight B
                     1st 2nd 3rd
WAFC Real Madrid B00  96   4   0  1st 6pts, GD 7
Oregon Rush Nike B00   3  70  26  2nd 3pts, GD 2
WAFC Barca B00         0  26  74


Flight C
                          1st 2nd 3rd
Westside Timbers Copa B00  81  18   1  1st 6pts, GD 11
Southside SC Azzuri B00    19  74   8  2nd 3pts, GD -1
FC West Halcones B00        0   8  92


Flight D
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
BSC Portland Black B00        57  32   9   2 2nd 4 pts, GD 0
Eastside Timbers Red B00      36  45  16   3 1st 5 pts, GD 3
LASC Halcones B00              6  18  51  24

Westside Timbers Mundial B00   1   5  24  71
 

Fall league comparisons B00

Scaled so that 0 is the median strength of the B00 teams. Note this is uses the old scaling of teams, but shows how the WA, OR and BC fall leagues compare.

Comparison of league strengths for B00 and B99

Here's the league strengths plot using those draft b99 rankings.   In the plot, 0 is the median strength of teams in B99.  A team with a strength of 1 over another would be expect to win about 60% of the time, and with a strength of 2 over another would be expected to win about 85% of the time.

Here are the medians for that plot.
          BCPL         RCL D1        OPL NPL         RCL D2      PSPL WSPL
         3.555          2.555          2.100          1.760          1.670
PSPL Classic 1    OPL 1st Div       D6 Umbro       PML Blue         RCL D3
         0.760          0.295          0.380          0.320          0.465
       D3 Gold        NPSL D1    OPL 2nd Div   PSPL In-Copa PSPL Classic 2
        -0.185          0.280         -0.245         -0.325         -0.945
         D3 S2         RCL D4          D3 S1      PSPL Copa        NPSL D2
        -0.860         -1.290         -0.685         -1.420         -1.170
       PML Red    OPL 3rd Div      D6 Reebok
        -1.725         -1.960         -2.280

For comparison, here's the same plot for b00.  Strengths have the same interpretation but now everything is scaled to the median b00 team.

Here's the medians for the b00's:
      BCPL       RCL D1      OPL NPL    PSPL WSPL       RCL D2     PML Blue
       3.910        3.265        2.230        2.060        1.870        1.610
 OPL 1st Div      NPSL D1       RCL D3 PSPL Classic  OPL 2nd Div     D6 Umbro
       0.645        0.570        0.165        0.260        0.120        0.335
     D3 Gold PSPL In-Copa    PSPL Copa      NPSL D2  OPL 3rd Div       RCL D4
      -0.515       -0.585       -0.960       -0.740       -1.350       -0.910
     PML Red        D3 S1        D3 S2    D6 Reebok        D3 S3  OPL 4th Div
      -1.630       -1.235       -1.635       -1.205       -1.700       -1.740
   D6 Adidas
      -3.340

Some interesting similarities and differences.  In both, there is a big gap in the RCL D1 rankings.  2-3 teams are distanced from the others.  The median difference between RCL D1 and PSPL WSPL is similar (about 1).  Overall median league strengths seem pretty similar across the b00's and b99's with the top district leagues being about RCL D3.  Big difference is that in this preliminary analysis, a lot of the top b99 leagues have teams that could hang with the bulk of RCL D1.  That doesn't look so true in b00.  But the top of D1 is well out from from best teams in all other leagues (with the exception of ISC A in the b00's).