B00 OR OPL State Cup Predictions

April 22, 2013: Updated with actual results
April 26, 2013: Updated with quarter final predictions

OPL schedule and scores 

Semi finals predictions

B00 OPL Cup semis 
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/27/2013
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04/28/2013 FC Portland Navy B00 vs Eastside Timbers Red B00, HW 89%, AW 4%, T 6%, pred score 4.4-1.1
04/28/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B00 vs WAFC Real Madrid B00, HW 40%, AW 38%, T 22%, pred score 1.8-1.8

  

Quarter finals predictions

Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 04/23/2013
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04/27/2013 Eastside Timbers Red B00 vs Oregon Rush Nike B00, HW 68%, AW 15%, T 17%, pred score 2.7-1.2
04/27/2013 FC Portland Navy B00 vs Southside SC Azzuri B00, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 10%, pred score 3.3-0.8
04/27/2013 WAFC Real Madrid B00 vs PCU Red B00, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 9%, pred score 3.4-0.8
04/27/2013 Westside Timbers Copa B00 vs BSC Portland Black B00, HW 68%, AW 15%, T 17%, pred score 2.6-1.2
 

Prelims predictions 

Here's my model's predictions based on 10,000 simulated prelim rounds. Numbers in the table are percent of simulations with that place result.

Flight A
                     1st 2nd 3rd
FC Portland Navy B00  98   2   0   1st 6 pts, GD 7
PCU Red B00            2  87  12   2nd 3 pts, GD 0
EMFC Rovers Blue B00   0  11  88


Flight B
                     1st 2nd 3rd
WAFC Real Madrid B00  96   4   0  1st 6pts, GD 7
Oregon Rush Nike B00   3  70  26  2nd 3pts, GD 2
WAFC Barca B00         0  26  74


Flight C
                          1st 2nd 3rd
Westside Timbers Copa B00  81  18   1  1st 6pts, GD 11
Southside SC Azzuri B00    19  74   8  2nd 3pts, GD -1
FC West Halcones B00        0   8  92


Flight D
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
BSC Portland Black B00        57  32   9   2 2nd 4 pts, GD 0
Eastside Timbers Red B00      36  45  16   3 1st 5 pts, GD 3
LASC Halcones B00              6  18  51  24

Westside Timbers Mundial B00   1   5  24  71