Sunday, November 25, 2012

Simulating the B00 WA Founders Cup

WA Founder's Cup Simulations  (link to WSYSA page for B00 Founder's Cup)
This uses the model of estimated team attack and defense strengths to simulate the preliminary rounds.  Then for the round of 16 and later I predict individual games.

Semi Final Predictions
At this point, the games are close and could go either way but I put my bets on Greenwalt vs Kent in the finals.
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 01/30/2013
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02/02/2013 Crossfire Select Merrick B00 vs Crossfire Select Greenwalt B00, HW 15%, AW 60%, T 24%, pred score 0.7-1.6
02/02/2013 Kent United Green B00 vs BYSC Select Cochran B00, HW 56%, AW 17%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-0.6


Quarter Final Predictions (updated with actual outcomes)
1-30-2013  The model didn't do so hot for the round of 8, though this was a hard round to predict with a lot of close games.  However, xFire Select Greenwalt definitely outperformed their expectations with 4 goals against WPFC Fury.

Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 01/22/2013
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01/26/2013 Kent United Green B00 vs Seattle United S Blue B00, HW 76%, AW 9%, T 15%, pred score 2.6-0.8  actual: HW (1-0)
01/26/2013 Crossfire Select Merrick B00 vs Vancouver Timbers Rojo B00, HW 26%, AW 45%, T 29%, pred score 0.9-1.3  actual: HW (1-0)
01/26/2013 WPFC Fury Black B00 vs Crossfire Select Greenwalt B00, HW 50%, AW 23%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-0.9  actual: AW (2-4)
01/26/2013 BYSC Select Cochran B00 vs Nortac Cosmos B00, HW 52%, AW 28%, T 21%, pred score 2.2-1.5  actual: T (0-0) BYSC wins on PKs

Round of 16 (updated with the actual outcomes)
1-22-2013 The model did quite well at predicting these games.


Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 01/14/2013
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01/19/2013 Vancouver Timbers Rojo B00 vs Crossfire Select Button B00, HW 52%, AW 27%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.5  actual: HW (4-2)
01/19/2013 Seattle United W Blue B00 vs WPFC Fury Black B00, HW 24%, AW 50%, T 26%, pred score 0.9-1.5  actual: AW (0-2)
01/19/2013 FME Xtreme B00 vs Crossfire Select Greenwalt B00, HW 27%, AW 47%, T 26%, pred score 1-1.5  actual: AW (0-3)
01/19/2013 Seattle United S Blue B00 vs FC Edmonds Fury B00, HW 33%, AW 46%, T 22%, pred score 1.6-1.9  actual: HW (3-0)
01/19/2013 Nortac Cosmos B00 vs Lake Hills Fury B00, HW 77%, AW 8%, T 15%, pred score 2.5-0.7  actual: HW (5-0)
01/19/2013 Crossfire Select Merrick B00 vs Kent United White B00, HW 55%, AW 16%, T 29%, pred score 1.3-0.6  actual: HW (2-0)
01/19/2013 Seattle United NE Blue B00 vs Kent United Green B00, HW 9%, AW 77%, T 14%, pred score 0.9-2.8  actual: AW (0-2)
01/19/2013 BYSC Select Cochran B00 vs Newport FC Cosmos B00, HW 86%, AW 5%, T 9%, pred score 3.3-0.7  actual: HW (6-0)

WA B00 Founders Cup preliminary round.  
Here are the probabilities based on model up to 12/14/2012.  No surface info but I included home advantage.  The histograms of the points distributions after the preliminary rounds are at the bottom.

Updated: Jan 14, 2013.  I discovered a bug in my code that would always give the tie to the team listed first.  Now, I'm using a GD tie-breaker, which is the 2nd tie-breaker for Founders.  The first tie-breaker is result for head-to-head game between the tied teams, but I haven't coded that in yet.

I added the actual results after the prelim rounds.


Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 12/14/2012
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Founders A
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United NE Blue B00    8  16  27  50   1st w 30 pts
Crossfire Select Button B00  43  30  18  10   2nd w 19 pts
Storm King B00               15  24  33  28
WSA Barcelona B00            34  31  22  13


Founders B
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United Shoreline Blue B00   0   3  20  76
Kent United Green B00              63  29   8   1  wildcard w 4.7 pts/game
BYSC Select Cochran B00             6  20  54  20  1st w 17 pts
WPFC Fury Black B00                31  49  17   3  2nd w 17 pts


Founders C
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Nortac Cosmos B00               22  29  35  14  1st w 22 pts
Impact FC Black B00              2   6  19  73
Crossfire Select Greenwalt B00  34  33  25   7  2nd w 19 pts
Seattle United S Black B00      42  32  21   6


Founders D
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th
TC United B00                  0   2  19  79
Crossfire Select Merrick B00  17  69  13   2  1st w 23 pts
Seattle United S Blue B00     83  17   0   0  2nd w 21 pts
Sparta Red B00                 0  13  68  19


Founders E
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle United S White B00   0   0   8  91
Newport FC Cosmos B00        2  14  76   8  wildcard 2 6pts/game
FC Edmonds Fury B00         30  57  12   0  2nd with 20 pts
Vancouver Timbers Rojo B00  68  29   4   0  1st with 21 pts


Founders F
                          1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kent United White B00      12  40  34  13  2nd w 18 pts
Seattle United W Blue B00  79  16   4   1  1st w 30 pts
SK Eagles White B00         8  36  39  17
WSA Inter B00               1   8  22  69


Founders G
                           1st 2nd 3rd
Lake Hills Fury B00         13  46  41  2nd w 8 pts
Seattle United W White B00   8  38  53  
FME Xtreme B00              79  15   6  1st w 12 pts
 
Game predictions
12/15/2012 Newport FC Cosmos B00 vs FC Edmonds Fury B00, HW 11%, AW 72%, T 17%, pred score 0.8-2.3  actual: AW (0-4)
12/15/2012 Crossfire Select Button B00 vs Storm King B00, HW 60%, AW 22%, T 17%, pred score 2.9-1.8  actual: HW (6-0)
12/15/2012 Crossfire Select Merrick B00 vs Seattle United S Blue B00, HW 18%, AW 63%, T 20%, pred score 1.1-2.2  actual: HW (3-2)
12/15/2012 Impact FC Black B00 vs Seattle United S Black B00, HW 9%, AW 66%, T 25%, pred score 0.4-1.5  actual: AW (0-2)
12/15/2012 Kent United White B00 vs WSA Inter B00, HW 59%, AW 13%, T 28%, pred score 1.3-0.5  actual: HW (2-0)
12/15/2012 Lake Hills Fury B00 vs Seattle United W White B00, HW 40%, AW 26%, T 33%, pred score 1-0.7  actual: T (1-1)
12/15/2012 Nortac Cosmos B00 vs Crossfire Select Greenwalt B00, HW 31%, AW 48%, T 21%, pred score 1.7-2.1  actual: HW (4-1)
12/15/2012 Seattle United NE Blue B00 vs WSA Barcelona B00, HW 21%, AW 57%, T 22%, pred score 1-1.9  actual: HW (4-0)
12/15/2012 Seattle United Shoreline Blue B00 vs BYSC Select Cochran B00, HW 18%, AW 64%, T 18%, pred score 1.3-2.6  actual: AW (0-2)
12/15/2012 Seattle United S White B00 vs Vancouver Timbers Rojo B00, HW 0%, AW 99%, T 1%, pred score 0.3-5.9  actual: AW (0-5)
12/15/2012 Seattle United W Blue B00 vs SK Eagles White B00, HW 84%, AW 7%, T 10%, pred score 3.8-1.1  actual: HW (3-0)
12/15/2012 TC United B00 vs Sparta Red B00, HW 15%, AW 66%, T 20%, pred score 0.9-2.1  actual: AW (0-2)
12/16/2012 Kent United Green B00 vs WPFC Fury Black B00, HW 51%, AW 25%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1.1  actual: AW (0-2)
 
01/05/2013 BYSC Select Cochran B00 vs Kent United Green B00, HW 13%, AW 70%, T 17%, pred score 0.9-2.4  actual: T (1-1)
01/05/2013 Newport FC Cosmos B00 vs Vancouver Timbers Rojo B00, HW 5%, AW 85%, T 10%, pred score 0.7-3.1  actual: HW (3-2)
01/05/2013 Crossfire Select Button B00 vs WSA Barcelona B00, HW 40%, AW 35%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-1.4  actual: HW (3-1)
01/05/2013 Crossfire Select Greenwalt B00 vs Impact FC Black B00, HW 75%, AW 8%, T 17%, pred score 2.2-0.6  actual: HW (5-0)
01/05/2013 Crossfire Select Merrick B00 vs Sparta Red B00, HW 73%, AW 10%, T 17%, pred score 2.2-0.7  actual: T (0-0)
01/05/2013 FC Edmonds Fury B00 vs Seattle United S White B00, HW 97%, AW 0%, T 2%, pred score 4.7-0.3  actual: HW (10-0)
01/05/2013 Nortac Cosmos B00 vs Seattle United S Black B00, HW 23%, AW 51%, T 26%, pred score 1-1.6  actual: T (1-1)
01/05/2013 Seattle United Shoreline Blue B00 vs WPFC Fury Black B00, HW 6%, AW 84%, T 10%, pred score 0.9-3.4  actual: T (0-0)
01/05/2013 Seattle United S Blue B00 vs TC United B00, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 7.9-0.4  actual: HW (4-0)
01/05/2013 Seattle United W Blue B00 vs WSA Inter B00, HW 88%, AW 3%, T 9%, pred score 2.9-0.4  actual: HW (6-0)
01/05/2013 Seattle United W White B00 vs FME Xtreme B00, HW 9%, AW 72%, T 19%, pred score 0.5-1.9  actual: AW (0-1)
01/05/2013 SK Eagles White B00 vs Kent United White B00, HW 35%, AW 41%, T 24%, pred score 1.4-1.6  actual: AW (2-3)
01/05/2013 Storm King B00 vs Seattle United NE Blue B00, HW 56%, AW 26%, T 18%, pred score 2.6-1.8  actual: AW (0-5)
 
01/12/2013 FME Xtreme B00 vs Lake Hills Fury B00, HW 72%, AW 9%, T 19%, pred score 2-0.5
01/12/2013 Impact FC Black B00 vs Nortac Cosmos B00, HW 15%, AW 67%, T 18%, pred score 1-2.3
01/12/2013 Kent United Green B00 vs Seattle United Shoreline Blue B00, HW 94%, AW 2%, T 4%, pred score 4.5-0.7
01/12/2013 Kent United White B00 vs Seattle United W Blue B00, HW 17%, AW 58%, T 26%, pred score 0.7-1.5
01/12/2013 Seattle United NE Blue B00 vs Crossfire Select Button B00, HW 21%, AW 61%, T 18%, pred score 1.4-2.5
01/12/2013 Seattle United S Black B00 vs Crossfire Select Greenwalt B00, HW 43%, AW 25%, T 32%, pred score 1.1-0.7
01/12/2013 Seattle United S White B00 vs Newport FC Cosmos B00, HW 8%, AW 81%, T 12%, pred score 0.9-3.1
01/12/2013 Sparta Red B00 vs Seattle United S Blue B00, HW 1%, AW 97%, T 2%, pred score 1-6.2
01/12/2013 TC United B00 vs Crossfire Select Merrick B00, HW 4%, AW 82%, T 14%, pred score 0.3-2.3
01/12/2013 Vancouver Timbers Rojo B00 vs FC Edmonds Fury B00, HW 50%, AW 23%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-0.9
01/12/2013 WPFC Fury Black B00 vs BYSC Select Cochran B00, HW 65%, AW 16%, T 20%, pred score 2.2-1
01/12/2013 WSA Barcelona B00 vs Storm King B00, HW 57%, AW 22%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.3
01/12/2013 WSA Inter B00 vs SK Eagles White B00, HW 18%, AW 63%, T 19%, pred score 1.1-2.3
 






 

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