Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Simulating the B99 Cranberry Cup

Here's some predictions of the B99 Cranberry Cup compared with the actual outcome:

First here's the simulations. Numbers are percent of simulations with a particular points standing for a particular team. In parentheses, it shows the actual outcome.

Cranberry B99
                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
NSC Thunder               0   0   3  80  17  (4th 14 pts)
Crossfire Select Taylor  22  33  44   2   0  (1st 32 pts)
FME Force                53  30  17   0   0  (2nd 31 pts)
ISC Arsenal               0   0   0  17  83  (5th 3 pts)
NSC Fusion               25  37  36   1   0  (3rd 14 pts)


The game outcomes seem about right except game 2. But the model overpredicted the home goals. It was driven largely by games 8 and 9 which were supposed to be blow-outs, but weren't.

home goals predicted vs actual: 29.8 18
away goals predicted vs actual: 19.9 16
NSC Thunder vs Crossfire Select Taylor, HW 4%, AW 87%, T 9%, pred score 0.5-3 actual: AW (0-4)
NSC Thunder vs NSC Fusion, HW 2%, AW 94%, T 5%, pred score 0.5-3.5 actual: T (0-0)
Crossfire Select Taylor vs FME Force, HW 21%, AW 57%, T 22%, pred score 1.2-1.9 actual: T (1-1)
FME Force vs ISC Arsenal, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 10.7-0.3 actual: HW (8-1)
ISC Arsenal vs NSC Thunder, HW 10%, AW 74%, T 15%, pred score 0.9-2.2 actual: AW (2-3)
Crossfire Select Taylor vs NSC Fusion, HW 27%, AW 46%, T 27%, pred score 1.1-1.2 actual: HW (1-0)
ISC Arsenal vs Crossfire Select Taylor, HW 0%, AW 98%, T 1%, pred score 0.3-5.2 actual: AW (0-5)
NSC Fusion vs ISC Arsenal, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 6.8-0.3 actual: HW (2-0)
FME Force vs NSC Thunder, HW 98%, AW 1%, T 1%, pred score 6.3-0.5 actual: HW (3-0)
NSC Fusion vs FME Force, HW 31%, AW 46%, T 23%, pred score 1.4-1.8 actual: AW (1-2)


Here's the histogram of points for the 4 games:

No comments:

Post a Comment