Thursday, March 10, 2016

2015-2016 Boys team strength across WA clubs

This is an update to two other posts I did on the strength of different club teams in WA and how team strength changes with age.  Read those for background on this post.
2012-2013 Analysis
2013-2014 Analysis

The plots break out the team strength (of the strongest team for each age from U12 to U18) by individual club.  This gives an overview of the types of teams different clubs produce, what strength their A teams tends to be at, and whether the club fields teams at every age.  The dashed black lines are the strengths of the B teams, so you can see which clubs have A and B teams.

The red line is the median strength of the top teams at age in Seattle United, Crossfire Premier, Washington Premier FC, and Eastside FC. The are the four largest and strongest clubs in Washington and consistently produce a top 4 team across most every age. The dotted-red line is a strength -2 below the top team (or -200 on new scaling). The predicted goal ratio in a match-up between a team on the red line and one on the dotted red line is 4, so 4-1 or 8-2. So the red line team is heavily expected to win, but it would not be a complete blow-out. The green line is the median across all the top teams from every select club in Washington, except those top 4.

B03 at far left, B97 at far right. 
1pt difference is about the length of this hyphen - on this graph. Yes, small. Being 1 full pt stronger = scoring 2x as rapidly so is a significant advantage. So being on the green line versus slightly above it indicates a big difference in strength. The red line teams score about 20-30x more rapidly than the green line teams.  This means that by the time the green line team scores once (on average), the red line team could have scored 20-30 times.
The first plot shows 2013-2014 versus 2015-2016 for 16 clubs (all clubs shown in the next plots).  The 2013-2014 clubs were chosen because they have teams at each age U12-U18 and have B teams at most ages too.   The 2015-2016 clubs were chose to match those from 2013-2014.  The red line is the median strength of WPFC, EFC, xFire, and SU A teams.

Generally speaking the patterns have stayed similar.  SU's plots in particular look similar.  Crossfire has some interesting variation now between A and B teams with many B teams close to the A team strength.  That wasn't apparent 2 years ago.  Eastside's A teams seem to have gotten more consistent but their B teams have dropped down to the green line.  SSC Shadow A teams have become more consistent, i.e. no much weaker age groups.  The other smaller RCL clubs remained fairly similar: they still show variation in strength across ages and gaps in B team coverage.  There are 3 non-WYS clubs listed which field teams at all ages and B teams at many ages: ISC, ECFC, Pacific FC.  ISC has gone down in strength with its top teams no longer above the dashed red line, but it filled in gaps and has fairly consistent strength across ages.  ECFC also dropped in strength to the green line, but filled in age gaps and smoothed out variation among the ages.  Similarly Pacific FC filled in missing ages and increased the number of B teams.




These are the plots for all clubs with a B03 or older team.

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