Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Simulating the 2014 So Cal G01 National Cup Preliminary Rounds

Click here to see a webpage of this, where you can click team name and go directly to the team's match history. When looking at individual team analyses, keep the following in mind:
  • The plot you see when you click on the individual team page is the result (better/worse than expected) against the 12-month AVERAGE performance.  It is meant to highlight whether the team is changing in strength---relative to competitors.
  • The strength rating you see in the tables and in the match predictor is not the 12-month average.  It is time-weighted, meaning it is heavily weighted to the RECENT games.
  • The algorithm is based on performance over (recent) games.  Some teams use a 'player pass' and are essentially 2 teams with different strengths and the algorithm gives the average of these two.  Usually you see this in the attack (presumably because a striker is being player passed) and you can identify such teams because their attack residuals have two 'peaks'---one low and high.  This is different than a team that has an inconsistent attack and the residuals are just spread out.  If you don't know ahead of time what team will be fielded, it usually it will be clear after 1-2 cup games.  At that point, predicted GF can be adjusted upward or downward.
SoCal National Cup Bracket A
                                   1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
BYSC Corona United G01               3  21  61  12   3
Legends FC Gold G01                 18  58  21   2   0
Tustin United G01                    0   1  10  51  37
Encinitas Express Soccer White G01   0   1   5  34  60
So Cal Blues Baker G01              78  19   3   0   0


SoCal National Cup Bracket B
                               1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Liverpool Premier Burton G01     4  12  26  29  29
Real So Cal White G01           53  30  11   4   1
Simi Valley Eclipse G01          3   9  21  29  37
Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01   4  11  25  30  30
So Cal Blues Kale G01           36  37  17   7   3


SoCal National Cup Bracket C
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Arsenal FC San Diego Premier G01    6  14  20  28  32
Celtic Academy G01                  5  11  17  27  40
Slammers FC G01                    19  26  24  19  12
Strikers FC Cerittos Martinez G01  18  26  25  19  12
Carlsbad Lightning Red G01         52  24  13   7   3


SoCal National Cup Bracket D
                                    1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
FC Golden State G01                   3  14  23  29  31
Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01       16  41  24  13   6
Strikers FC Melendez G01              2  11  21  29  37
Rebels Soccer Club Gold Marquez G01   4  17  27  27  25
LA Galaxy South Bay Gold G01         76  18   5   2   0


SoCal National Cup Bracket E
                                1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
FRAM Soccer Club G01              0   2  11  62  26
Legends FC G01                   23  50  25   3   0
San Diego Surf SC Academy I G01   7  25  56  11   1
Claremont Stars G01               0   0   2  25  73
Eagles SC G01                    70  23   6   0   0


SoCal National Cup Bracket F
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Eagles SC White G01            3  20  25  27  26
LA Galaxy South Bay Navy G01   3  19  24  26  27
Westside Breakers White G01    7  33  26  20  15
Legends FC Black G01           2  16  22  26  33
West Coast FC G01             85  11   3   1   0


SoCal National Cup Bracket G
                                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Canyon FC G01                             4  12  26  31  28
San Diego SC Academy Navy G01            32  40  18   8   3
West Coast FC United G01                  2   7  18  28  45
Carlsbad Wave FC Black G01                5  14  29  30  23
Anaheim Surf White- Canyon PSA Blue G01  58  28  10   4   1


SoCal National Cup Bracket H
                              1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Fullerton Rangers White G01    55  29  11   4   1
Hotspurs Premier G01            6  16  33  30  16
West Coast FC United Blue G01   1   3  11  25  59
Legends FC South G01            4  12  27  35  22
Arsenal FC G01                 34  40  18   7   2

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