Monday, February 18, 2013

SoCal G01 President's Rounds of 64 to Semis predictions

2/25/13 I updated round of 16, 32 and 64 predictions with results

3/3/13 I updated with qtr finals results and semis predictions.

Finals: So Cal Blues Baker vs West Coast FC.  So Cal Blue Baker won 1-0

Semi-Finals Link to Cal South Soccer Semis page

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 03/03/2013
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03/03/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Carlsbad Lightning Red G01, HW 91%, AW 1%, T 8%, pred score 2.8-0.2  actual: HW (3-0)
03/03/2013 Arsenal FC G01 vs West Coast FC G01, HW 38%, AW 30%, T 32%, pred score 1-0.9  actual: AW (1-2)


Quarter Final Link to Cal South Soccer Qtr Final page

Note(3/3/13): I didn't have time to include the round of 64,32, and 16 games when I ran these predictions.  If I had, Carlsbad Lightnings' probability would have been higher since you can see in the earlier rounds that they have been consistently doing better than expected.

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/04/2013
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03/02/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs West Coast FC G01, HW 61%, AW 14%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-0.6 actual: T (0-0) AW on PK
03/02/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 25%, AW 39%, T 36%, pred score 0.6-0.9 actual AW (0-3)
03/02/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Canyon PSA Blue G01, HW 95%, AW 1%, T 4%, pred score 3.8-0.3 actual: HW (3-0)
03/02/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs Eagles SC G01, HW 8%, AW 76%, T 16%, pred score 0.7-2.4 actual: HW: (2-1)
 
 

Round of 16 Link to Cal South Soccer Round of 16 page


Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/04/2013
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02/24/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01, HW 42%, AW 29%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-1  actual: HW (2-1)
02/24/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Hotspurs Premier G01, HW 62%, AW 14%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-0.7  actual: HW (2-1)
02/24/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs Eagles SC White G01, HW 74%, AW 8%, T 18%, pred score 2.1-0.5  actual: HW (1-0)
02/24/2013 BYSC Corona United Blue G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 8%, AW 73%, T 19%, pred score 0.5-2  actual: AW (0-1)
02/24/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs West Coast FC United G01, HW 54%, AW 26%, T 20%, pred score 2.2-1.5  actual: T (1-1) AW on PK
02/24/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs San Diego Surf SC Premier G01, HW 97%, AW 0%, T 3%, pred score 4.1-0.2  actual: HW (5-0)
02/24/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs San Diego Surf SC White G01, HW 38%, AW 28%, T 33%, pred score 1-0.8  actual: HW (1-0)
02/24/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 56%, AW 24%, T 20%, pred score 2.2-1.4  actual: HW (3-0)

Round of 32  Link to Cal South Soccer Round of 32 page


Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/04/2013
---------------------------------------------
02/23/2013 Eagles SC White G01 vs Avengers SC Blue G01, HW 83%, AW 6%, T 11%, pred score 3.1-0.8  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Black G01 vs BYSC Corona United Blue G01, HW 7%, AW 75%, T 18%, pred score 0.4-2  actual: AW (0-1)
02/23/2013 Canyon FC G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 2%, AW 89%, T 9%, pred score 0.3-2.9  actual: AW (1-2)
02/23/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs FC Golden State G01, HW 62%, AW 12%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-0.5  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Westside Breakers White G01 vs Hotspurs Premier G01, HW 30%, AW 48%, T 22%, pred score 1.6-2  actual: AW (0-2)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Manchester SC Gold G01, HW 64%, AW 12%, T 24%, pred score 1.6-0.5  actual: HW (3-1)
02/23/2013 Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01 vs Downey FC City G01, HW 92%, AW 2%, T 6%, pred score 3.6-0.4  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs Slammers FC G01, HW 90%, AW 2%, T 8%, pred score 3-0.3  actual: HW (2-0)
02/24/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Simi Valley Eclipse G01, HW 98%, AW 0%, T 2%, pred score 4.6-0.2  actual: HW (3-0)
02/24/2013 Strikers FC Carroll G01 vs West Coast FC United G01, HW 13%, AW 64%, T 23%, pred score 0.6-1.7  actual: AW (1-2)
02/24/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01, HW 89%, AW 4%, T 7%, pred score 3.9-0.8  actual: HW (6-1)
02/24/2013 San Diego SC Elite White G01 vs San Diego Surf SC Premier G01, HW 18%, AW 57%, T 25%, pred score 0.8-1.6  actual: AW (0-1)
02/24/2013 Legends FC G01 vs Carlsbad Lightning Red G01, HW 66%, AW 15%, T 20%, pred score 2.1-0.9  actual: T (0-0) AW on PK
02/24/2013 San Diego SC Elite Navy G01 vs San Diego Surf SC White G01, HW 1%, AW 97%, T 2%, pred score 0.3-4.7  actual: AW (0-4)
02/24/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs Fullerton Rangers White G01, HW 27%, AW 36%, T 37%, pred score 0.7-0.8  actual: HW (2-0)
02/24/2013 Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 47%, AW 26%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1  actual: AW (0-1)
 
Round of 64 Link to Cal South Soccer Round of 64 page


Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/18/2013
---------------------------------------------
02/23/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 25%, AW 38%, T 36%, pred score 0.6-0.9  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 Eagles SC White G01 vs Encinitas Express Soccer White G01, HW 82%, AW 6%, T 12%, pred score 2.7-0.6  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Black G01 vs Rebels Soccer Club Martinez G01, HW 31%, AW 37%, T 33%, pred score 0.8-1  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Canyon FC G01 vs Legends FC South G01, HW 12%, AW 67%, T 21%, pred score 0.7-1.9  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Arsenal FC G01 vs Temecula Valley SC Hawks Black G01, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 10.2-0.2  actual: HW (4-0)
02/23/2013 Claremont Stars G01 vs BYSC Corona United Blue G01, HW 21%, AW 51%, T 28%, pred score 0.8-1.4  actual: AW (0-2)
02/23/2013 Avengers SC Blue G01 vs Fullerton Rangers Blue G01, HW 26%, AW 46%, T 28%, pred score 0.9-1.3  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 FC Golden State G01 vs Carlsbad Wave FC Black G01, HW 87%, AW 4%, T 9%, pred score 3.3-0.7  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs Real So Cal White G01, HW 69%, AW 10%, T 21%, pred score 1.8-0.5  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Slammers FC G01 vs Rebels Soccer Club Lopez G01, HW 47%, AW 23%, T 30%, pred score 1.2-0.8  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01 vs Manhattan Beach Sand and Surf G01, HW 97%, AW 1%, T 3%, pred score 4.5-0.3  actual: HW (5-1)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Strikers FC Macias G01, HW 40%, AW 25%, T 35%, pred score 0.9-0.7  actual: HW (2-1)
02/23/2013 Hotspurs Premier G01 vs Coronado YSL Select G01, HW 73%, AW 10%, T 17%, pred score 2.2-0.7  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC United Blue G01 vs Westside Breakers White G01, HW 32%, AW 48%, T 20%, pred score 1.8-2.3  actual: AW (0-2)
02/23/2013 South Bay Force Blue G01 vs Manchester SC Gold G01, HW 18%, AW 58%, T 25%, pred score 0.8-1.6  actual: T (0-0)
02/23/2013 Conejo Valley United Blue G01 vs Downey FC City G01, HW 16%, AW 63%, T 21%, pred score 1-2.1  actual: AW (0-1)
02/23/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Exiles SC Red G01, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 8.8-0  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego SC Elite White G01 vs Santa Barbara SC White G01, HW 36%, AW 40%, T 24%, pred score 1.5-1.6  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs Freedom FC G01, HW 93%, AW 2%, T 5%, pred score 3.8-0.4  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Strikers FC Carroll G01 vs Legends FC Riverside G01, HW 63%, AW 9%, T 28%, pred score 1.4-0.3  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC United G01 vs Poway Vaqueros Green G01, HW 99%, AW 0%, T 1%, pred score 6-0.5  actual: HW (5-0)
02/23/2013 Real So Cal Blue G01 vs Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01, HW 32%, AW 43%, T 24%, pred score 1.4-1.6  actual: T (0-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego Surf SC Premier G01 vs Strikers FC Petrus G01, HW 65%, AW 13%, T 22%, pred score 1.8-0.7  actual: HW (3-1)
02/23/2013 Simi Valley Eclipse G01 vs Olimpia SC G01, HW 40%, AW 32%, T 28%, pred score 1.3-1.1  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Legends FC G01 vs FRAM Soccer Club G01, HW 74%, AW 9%, T 17%, pred score 2.3-0.6  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs San Diego Football Academy G01, HW 98%, AW 1%, T 2%, pred score 5.7-0.6  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 Los Gauchos SC G01 vs Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01, HW 4%, AW 84%, T 12%, pred score 0.5-2.7  actual: AW (0-1)
02/23/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs LA Premier FC G01, HW 87%, AW 3%, T 11%, pred score 2.5-0.3  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego Surf SC White G01 vs California Soccer Academy Cypress Black G01, HW 84%, AW 4%, T 12%, pred score 2.5-0.4  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego SC Elite Navy G01 vs Pateadoes MV G01, HW 24%, AW 60%, T 17%, pred score 2-3  actual: HW (2-1)
02/23/2013 Slammers FC Maroon G01 vs Fullerton Rangers White G01, HW 1%, AW 96%, T 3%, pred score 0.2-4  actual: T (0-0)
02/23/2013 Hotspurs Red G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 4%, AW 89%, T 7%, pred score 0.7-3.6  actual: T (0-0)

4 comments:

  1. Nice Work....Now we will have to wait & See!

    What team does your daughter or granddaughter play for?

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  2. Hi, we (the statistician, me, and the person who is assembling the data) are in WA so don't have daughters on a So Cal team. We are both quantitative people and simply enjoy trying understand the strength of teams on the west coast. I'm working on this youth ranking system to help teams (and organizers) choose similar competition (in leagues and tournaments) and the SoCal President's Cup is a great test case because it is so big. --LastPlanet

    ReplyDelete
  3. Awesome stuff, Thanks for the update.

    Sad to see the projected outcome, but once again, we will know for certain after the ref's whistle blows.

    Is it possible to zoom in within the last 2-3 months of play for the top 8 teams? Just to see if the averaged data differ's from recent play.

    Thanks again for the amazing work! I enjoy it a lot.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I'll have time to get the individual team reports done later this week. I just got an updated match database for the west coast GU11s.

    ReplyDelete