SoCal G01 President's Rounds of 64 to Semis predictions

2/25/13 I updated round of 16, 32 and 64 predictions with results

3/3/13 I updated with qtr finals results and semis predictions.

Finals: So Cal Blues Baker vs West Coast FC.  So Cal Blue Baker won 1-0

Semi-Finals Link to Cal South Soccer Semis page

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 03/03/2013
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03/03/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Carlsbad Lightning Red G01, HW 91%, AW 1%, T 8%, pred score 2.8-0.2  actual: HW (3-0)
03/03/2013 Arsenal FC G01 vs West Coast FC G01, HW 38%, AW 30%, T 32%, pred score 1-0.9  actual: AW (1-2)

Quarter Final Link to Cal South Soccer Qtr Final page

Note(3/3/13): I didn't have time to include the round of 64,32, and 16 games when I ran these predictions.  If I had, Carlsbad Lightnings' probability would have been higher since you can see in the earlier rounds that they have been consistently doing better than expected.

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/04/2013
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03/02/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs West Coast FC G01, HW 61%, AW 14%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-0.6 actual: T (0-0) AW on PK
03/02/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 25%, AW 39%, T 36%, pred score 0.6-0.9 actual AW (0-3)
03/02/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Canyon PSA Blue G01, HW 95%, AW 1%, T 4%, pred score 3.8-0.3 actual: HW (3-0)
03/02/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs Eagles SC G01, HW 8%, AW 76%, T 16%, pred score 0.7-2.4 actual: HW: (2-1)

Round of 16 Link to Cal South Soccer Round of 16 page

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/04/2013
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02/24/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01, HW 42%, AW 29%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-1  actual: HW (2-1)
02/24/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Hotspurs Premier G01, HW 62%, AW 14%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-0.7  actual: HW (2-1)
02/24/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs Eagles SC White G01, HW 74%, AW 8%, T 18%, pred score 2.1-0.5  actual: HW (1-0)
02/24/2013 BYSC Corona United Blue G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 8%, AW 73%, T 19%, pred score 0.5-2  actual: AW (0-1)
02/24/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs West Coast FC United G01, HW 54%, AW 26%, T 20%, pred score 2.2-1.5  actual: T (1-1) AW on PK
02/24/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs San Diego Surf SC Premier G01, HW 97%, AW 0%, T 3%, pred score 4.1-0.2  actual: HW (5-0)
02/24/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs San Diego Surf SC White G01, HW 38%, AW 28%, T 33%, pred score 1-0.8  actual: HW (1-0)
02/24/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 56%, AW 24%, T 20%, pred score 2.2-1.4  actual: HW (3-0)

Round of 32  Link to Cal South Soccer Round of 32 page

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/04/2013
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02/23/2013 Eagles SC White G01 vs Avengers SC Blue G01, HW 83%, AW 6%, T 11%, pred score 3.1-0.8  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Black G01 vs BYSC Corona United Blue G01, HW 7%, AW 75%, T 18%, pred score 0.4-2  actual: AW (0-1)
02/23/2013 Canyon FC G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 2%, AW 89%, T 9%, pred score 0.3-2.9  actual: AW (1-2)
02/23/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs FC Golden State G01, HW 62%, AW 12%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-0.5  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Westside Breakers White G01 vs Hotspurs Premier G01, HW 30%, AW 48%, T 22%, pred score 1.6-2  actual: AW (0-2)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Manchester SC Gold G01, HW 64%, AW 12%, T 24%, pred score 1.6-0.5  actual: HW (3-1)
02/23/2013 Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01 vs Downey FC City G01, HW 92%, AW 2%, T 6%, pred score 3.6-0.4  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs Slammers FC G01, HW 90%, AW 2%, T 8%, pred score 3-0.3  actual: HW (2-0)
02/24/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Simi Valley Eclipse G01, HW 98%, AW 0%, T 2%, pred score 4.6-0.2  actual: HW (3-0)
02/24/2013 Strikers FC Carroll G01 vs West Coast FC United G01, HW 13%, AW 64%, T 23%, pred score 0.6-1.7  actual: AW (1-2)
02/24/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01, HW 89%, AW 4%, T 7%, pred score 3.9-0.8  actual: HW (6-1)
02/24/2013 San Diego SC Elite White G01 vs San Diego Surf SC Premier G01, HW 18%, AW 57%, T 25%, pred score 0.8-1.6  actual: AW (0-1)
02/24/2013 Legends FC G01 vs Carlsbad Lightning Red G01, HW 66%, AW 15%, T 20%, pred score 2.1-0.9  actual: T (0-0) AW on PK
02/24/2013 San Diego SC Elite Navy G01 vs San Diego Surf SC White G01, HW 1%, AW 97%, T 2%, pred score 0.3-4.7  actual: AW (0-4)
02/24/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs Fullerton Rangers White G01, HW 27%, AW 36%, T 37%, pred score 0.7-0.8  actual: HW (2-0)
02/24/2013 Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 47%, AW 26%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1  actual: AW (0-1)

Round of 64 Link to Cal South Soccer Round of 64 page

Predicted Match Results for 05/01/1900 to 06/01/2100
Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 02/18/2013
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02/23/2013 So Cal Blues Kale G01 vs Arsenal FC G01, HW 25%, AW 38%, T 36%, pred score 0.6-0.9  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 Eagles SC White G01 vs Encinitas Express Soccer White G01, HW 82%, AW 6%, T 12%, pred score 2.7-0.6  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Black G01 vs Rebels Soccer Club Martinez G01, HW 31%, AW 37%, T 33%, pred score 0.8-1  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Canyon FC G01 vs Legends FC South G01, HW 12%, AW 67%, T 21%, pred score 0.7-1.9  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Arsenal FC G01 vs Temecula Valley SC Hawks Black G01, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 10.2-0.2  actual: HW (4-0)
02/23/2013 Claremont Stars G01 vs BYSC Corona United Blue G01, HW 21%, AW 51%, T 28%, pred score 0.8-1.4  actual: AW (0-2)
02/23/2013 Avengers SC Blue G01 vs Fullerton Rangers Blue G01, HW 26%, AW 46%, T 28%, pred score 0.9-1.3  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 FC Golden State G01 vs Carlsbad Wave FC Black G01, HW 87%, AW 4%, T 9%, pred score 3.3-0.7  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 South Bay Force Quigs G01 vs Real So Cal White G01, HW 69%, AW 10%, T 21%, pred score 1.8-0.5  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Slammers FC G01 vs Rebels Soccer Club Lopez G01, HW 47%, AW 23%, T 30%, pred score 1.2-0.8  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01 vs Manhattan Beach Sand and Surf G01, HW 97%, AW 1%, T 3%, pred score 4.5-0.3  actual: HW (5-1)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC G01 vs Strikers FC Macias G01, HW 40%, AW 25%, T 35%, pred score 0.9-0.7  actual: HW (2-1)
02/23/2013 Hotspurs Premier G01 vs Coronado YSL Select G01, HW 73%, AW 10%, T 17%, pred score 2.2-0.7  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC United Blue G01 vs Westside Breakers White G01, HW 32%, AW 48%, T 20%, pred score 1.8-2.3  actual: AW (0-2)
02/23/2013 South Bay Force Blue G01 vs Manchester SC Gold G01, HW 18%, AW 58%, T 25%, pred score 0.8-1.6  actual: T (0-0)
02/23/2013 Conejo Valley United Blue G01 vs Downey FC City G01, HW 16%, AW 63%, T 21%, pred score 1-2.1  actual: AW (0-1)
02/23/2013 So Cal Blues Baker G01 vs Exiles SC Red G01, HW 100%, AW 0%, T 0%, pred score 8.8-0  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego SC Elite White G01 vs Santa Barbara SC White G01, HW 36%, AW 40%, T 24%, pred score 1.5-1.6  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Canyon PSA Blue G01 vs Freedom FC G01, HW 93%, AW 2%, T 5%, pred score 3.8-0.4  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Strikers FC Carroll G01 vs Legends FC Riverside G01, HW 63%, AW 9%, T 28%, pred score 1.4-0.3  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 West Coast FC United G01 vs Poway Vaqueros Green G01, HW 99%, AW 0%, T 1%, pred score 6-0.5  actual: HW (5-0)
02/23/2013 Real So Cal Blue G01 vs Santa Clarita Valley Magic G01, HW 32%, AW 43%, T 24%, pred score 1.4-1.6  actual: T (0-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego Surf SC Premier G01 vs Strikers FC Petrus G01, HW 65%, AW 13%, T 22%, pred score 1.8-0.7  actual: HW (3-1)
02/23/2013 Simi Valley Eclipse G01 vs Olimpia SC G01, HW 40%, AW 32%, T 28%, pred score 1.3-1.1  actual: HW (1-0)
02/23/2013 Legends FC G01 vs FRAM Soccer Club G01, HW 74%, AW 9%, T 17%, pred score 2.3-0.6  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 vs San Diego Football Academy G01, HW 98%, AW 1%, T 2%, pred score 5.7-0.6  actual: HW (3-0)
02/23/2013 Los Gauchos SC G01 vs Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01, HW 4%, AW 84%, T 12%, pred score 0.5-2.7  actual: AW (0-1)
02/23/2013 Eagles SC G01 vs LA Premier FC G01, HW 87%, AW 3%, T 11%, pred score 2.5-0.3  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego Surf SC White G01 vs California Soccer Academy Cypress Black G01, HW 84%, AW 4%, T 12%, pred score 2.5-0.4  actual: HW (2-0)
02/23/2013 San Diego SC Elite Navy G01 vs Pateadoes MV G01, HW 24%, AW 60%, T 17%, pred score 2-3  actual: HW (2-1)
02/23/2013 Slammers FC Maroon G01 vs Fullerton Rangers White G01, HW 1%, AW 96%, T 3%, pred score 0.2-4  actual: T (0-0)
02/23/2013 Hotspurs Red G01 vs Celtic Hoops G01, HW 4%, AW 89%, T 7%, pred score 0.7-3.6  actual: T (0-0)