Predictions for the B99 Founder's Cup

 Link to WSYSA website for B99 Founder's Cup

Round of 16

Model based on data from 05/01/2012 to 01/14/2013
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01/19/2013 Kent United White B99 vs Crossfire Select Yerxa B99, HW 48%, AW 29%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-1.3
01/19/2013 FC Salmon Creek Barca B99 vs Vancouver Timbers Azul B99, HW 88%, AW 4%, T 8%, pred score 3.9-0.9
01/19/2013 Sparta White B99 vs Storm King B99, HW 40%, AW 39%, T 21%, pred score 1.9-1.9
01/19/2013 FC Edmonds Forza B99 vs Seattle United W Blue B99, HW 88%, AW 5%, T 8%, pred score 3.9-1
01/19/2013 Tacoma United Manchester B99 vs Whatcom Rangers White B99, HW 99%, AW 0%, T 1%, pred score 6.8-0.6
01/19/2013 Seattle United NE Blue B99 vs Seattle United S Black B99, HW 18%, AW 66%, T 16%, pred score 1.5-2.9
01/19/2013 Lake Hills Synergy B99 vs Crossfire Select Taylor B99, HW 78%, AW 9%, T 13%, pred score 2.9-0.9
01/19/2013 Impact FC Black B99 vs Mercer Island FC Tornado B99, HW 88%, AW 3%, T 9%, pred score 3-0.4

Prelim rounds
I simulated 10,000 preliminary rounds for the B99 Founder's Cup to come up with predicted outcomes for the preliminary rounds.  Numbers in the tables are probabilities (percent of simulated rounds) of finishing at a certain position in the bracket.  The model used was based on games up to December 14.

Founders A
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st or 2nd
Sparta Red B99               7  24  55  14         31
Vancouver Timbers Azul B99   0   2  15  82          2  wildcard
Seattle United NE Blue B99  66  27   7   0         93  2nd w 14 pts
Kent United White B99       27  47  23   3         74  1st w 28 pts


Founders B
                            1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st or 2nd
Crossfire Select Taylor B99  88  11   1   0         99  2nd with 23 pts
FC Salmon Creek Barca B99    11  67  22   0         78  1st with 27 pts
SGESC Fusion Inferno B99      1  21  71   6         22
Seattle United NE White B99   0   0   7  93          0


Founders C
                                  1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st or 2nd
Seattle United Shoreline Blue B99   1  56  43   0         57  wildcard
Impact FC Black B99                99   1   0   0        100  1st w 28 pts
Legacy FC Silver B99                0   0   0 100          0
Whatcom Rangers White B99           0  43  56   0         43  2nd w 16 pts


Founders D
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st or 2nd
Newport FC Warriors B99        2  17  52  29         19
Seattle United S Black B99    17  58  19   5         75  2nd w 18 pts
Mercer Island FC Tornado B99   1   7  27  65          8  wildcard
FC Edmonds Forza B99          81  17   2   0         98  1st w 23 pts


Founders E
                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st or 2nd
Sparta White B99             2  23  54  20         25  2nd w 16 pts
Seattle United S Blue B99    0   5  21  74          5
Crossfire Select Yerxa B99  10  61  23   6         71  wildcard
Lake Hills Synergy B99      88  11   1   0         99  1st w 28 pts


Founders F
                             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 1st or 2nd
Seattle United W White B99     0   0   1  11  89          0
Seattle United W Blue B99      2  38  49  10   0         40  wildcard
Storm King B99                 3  55  37   5   0         58  2nd w 28 pts
Vancouver Timbers Rojo B99     0   2  13  74  11          2
Tacoma United Manchester B99  95   4   0   0   0         99  1st w 39 pts