Tuesday, September 3, 2013

2013 Strength Ratings posted to Blog

Updated DRAFT 2013 boys ratings

The tabs on the blog now point to the 2013 ranks. Soon I will add links to the archived 2012 ranks. I don't have the league table done yet nor column re what fall league the team is in.

I've entered the first 1-2 league games.  Leagues included are RCL, PSPL, OPL, NPSL, DIII, DVI, and PML.
Email corrections and additions to lastplanetranking@gmail.com.

Some things to keep in mind for the 2013 ratings:
* I have changed the scaling for teams.  All teams are scaled against the median U13 team.  The median U13 team is set to a strength of 800.  This makes the ratings look a little more like chess ratings.  2000 is a very strong HS team and the top teams won't hit this till U17-18.

* Check out the FAQ on the blog to understand the meaning of the strength rating.  This is a predictive model and the DIFFERENCE in strength ratings between 2 teams gives you a prediction of the RATIO of the goals scored.  If rescaled the ratings, so now a difference of 100 is a prediction that the ratio of goals scored will be 2 (so a 2:1 or 4:2 or 8:4 score, which of those depends on the strength-attack characteristics of the teams).  A difference of 200 is a prediction that the ratio of goals scored will be 4 (so 4:1 or 8:2 etc score).

* The ratings are based on 13 months of matches but the ratings are weighted (heavily) towards the more recent 2-3 months of games. On the pdf, you can see how a team changed after try-outs (or after key players added or dropped).

* The "All-xx" tables you see have teams that are from 2012-2013 and don't exist anymore, but the state tables only have teams that played a game in the last 3 months.

* Only teams with 7+ games are listed on the main tables.  You can see all teams on the All_Bxx_ranks.html file.  Don't make much of the rating of a team with only 3-5 games.

* I have the B02s listed to help me figure out 02 teams that played up in a tourney but didn't list their age.  I won't be rating the B02s past this stage.  I start with U12s when games are 11v11.

* I have B94s listed, but I won't include those either in the final.

* Oregon ratings will be sketchy until the fall league starts.  There were many name changes and reorganization of teams, so more data is needed to get these sorted out.


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