One of the things I want to explore is whether summer data is a good predictor of Fall league performance. If so, it suggests that normal summer tournament data, without resorting to special ranking tournaments, can be used to help set Fall league composition.
Here's the first analysis. I compared simulated the B00 RCL D1 Fall league using only the summer data for B00's. Here's the results with the actual standings on the right. The summer results picked out the top 3 pretty well.
Here's the second analysis for RCL D2. Here summer results would have put SU Tango and Highline with high probability in the top 3, but only SU Tango was.
Here's the first analysis. I compared simulated the B00 RCL D1 Fall league using only the summer data for B00's. Here's the results with the actual standings on the right. The summer results picked out the top 3 pretty well.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
FC Alliance A B00 0 0 0 4 21 30 28 18 4th w 21 pts, GD 7
Crossfire Premier B B00 1 4 16 61 14 3 1 0 5th w 16 pts, GD -15
WPFC Black B00 28 42 25 5 0 0 0 0 1st w 32 pts, GD 21
Eastside FC Red B00 11 26 47 15 1 0 0 0 2nd w 28 pts, GD 18
Seattle United Copa B00 60 28 11 1 0 0 0 0 3rd w 26 pts, GD 17
WA Rush Nike B00 0 0 0 3 17 28 31 21 7th w 12 pts, GD -9
SSC Shadow A B00 0 0 0 1 5 13 26 55 6th w 13 pts, GD -12
Crossfire Premier A B01 0 0 1 11 41 26 14 6 8th w 5 pts, GD -17
Here's the second analysis for RCL D2. Here summer results would have put SU Tango and Highline with high probability in the top 3, but only SU Tango was.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th PacNW Maroon B00 4 19 34 23 13 5 2 0 2nd w 28 pts NWN Red B00 0 0 2 5 12 26 31 24 7th w 5 pts Eastside FC White B00 1 6 16 26 29 14 6 2 5th w 21 pts Highline Premier Blue B00 18 48 21 9 3 1 0 0 4th w 22 pts Snohomish United Black B00 0 0 2 6 14 28 29 21 3rd w 24 pts Westsound FC Red B00 0 0 0 2 5 14 28 51 8th w 4 pts Seattle United Tango B00 76 18 4 1 0 0 0 0 1st w 32 pts WPFC White B00 1 8 20 29 25 11 4 1 6th w 21 pts
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