Monday, January 21, 2013

Comparison of the B00 RCL D1/2 Fall standing using only summer data

One of the things I want to explore is whether summer data is a good predictor of Fall league performance.  If so, it suggests that normal summer tournament data, without resorting to special ranking tournaments, can be used to help set Fall league composition.

Here's the first analysis.  I compared simulated the B00 RCL D1 Fall league using only the summer data for B00's.  Here's the results with the actual standings on the right.  The summer results picked out the top 3 pretty well.

                        1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
FC Alliance A B00         0   0   0   4  21  30  28  18  4th w 21 pts, GD 7
Crossfire Premier B B00   1   4  16  61  14   3   1   0  5th w 16 pts, GD -15
WPFC Black B00           28  42  25   5   0   0   0   0  1st w 32 pts, GD 21
Eastside FC Red B00      11  26  47  15   1   0   0   0  2nd w 28 pts, GD 18
Seattle United Copa B00  60  28  11   1   0   0   0   0  3rd w 26 pts, GD 17
WA Rush Nike B00          0   0   0   3  17  28  31  21  7th w 12 pts, GD -9
SSC Shadow A B00          0   0   0   1   5  13  26  55  6th w 13 pts, GD -12
Crossfire Premier A B01   0   0   1  11  41  26  14   6  8th w  5 pts, GD -17 

Here's the second analysis for RCL D2.  Here summer results would have put SU Tango and Highline with high probability in the top 3, but only SU Tango was. 


                           1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
PacNW Maroon B00             4  19  34  23  13   5   2   0  2nd w 28 pts
NWN Red B00                  0   0   2   5  12  26  31  24  7th w 5 pts
Eastside FC White B00        1   6  16  26  29  14   6   2  5th w 21 pts
Highline Premier Blue B00   18  48  21   9   3   1   0   0  4th w 22 pts
Snohomish United Black B00   0   0   2   6  14  28  29  21  3rd w 24 pts
Westsound FC Red B00         0   0   0   2   5  14  28  51  8th w 4 pts
Seattle United Tango B00    76  18   4   1   0   0   0   0  1st w 32 pts
WPFC White B00               1   8  20  29  25  11   4   1  6th w 21 pts

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